{"id":399373,"date":"2026-04-15T07:55:08","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T07:55:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/399373\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T07:55:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T07:55:08","slug":"wednesday-briefing-why-are-people-turning-global-crises-into-high-stakes-bets-stock-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/399373\/","title":{"rendered":"Wednesday briefing: \u200bWhy are people turning global \u200bcrises \u200binto \u200bhigh\u2011\u200bstakes \u200bbets\u200b? | Stock markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

For punters using the online prediction market Polymarket, almost everything is a chance to make money. Want to bet on when the US and Iran will reach a peace agreement? Polymarket will let you. Fancy a gamble on how many times Elon Musk will post on X by the end of the day? There\u2019s a market for it. Have a hunch that the second coming of Jesus Christ will happen before 2027? Polymarket reckons there is (currently) a 4% chance, and there\u2019s about $57m<\/a> on the line already.<\/p>\n

In just a few years, prediction markets have become big business, with hundreds of millions of pounds traded on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket each day. For today\u2019s newsletter, I spoke to Aisha Down, the Guardian\u2019s reporter on AI about her recent investigation into the platform<\/a> and how bedroom gamblers are profiting on anything from the Ukraine war to the number of times President Trump says the word \u201cballroom\u201d in a speech.<\/p>\n

But first, the headlines.<\/p>\n

Five big stories<\/p>\n

Middle East | Donald Trump has said that US-Iranian peace talks could resume<\/a> in Islamabad over the next two days, and complimented the work of Pakistan\u2019s army chief as mediator.<\/p>\n

Economy | A further escalation in the Iran war could trigger a global recession, spiralling inflation and a sharp backlash in financial markets, the International Monetary Fund has warned<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Spain | Bego\u00f1a G\u00f3mez, the wife of Spain\u2019s prime minister, Pedro S\u00e1nchez, has been charged<\/a> with embezzlement, influence peddling, corruption in business dealings and misappropriation of funds.<\/p>\n

UK news | The police watchdog is investigating complaints made against 11 officers<\/a> over their handling of an inquiry into a car crash that killed two schoolgirls in 2023.<\/p>\n

Health | Wes Streeting has vowed to stop women being \u201cgaslit\u201d by doctors<\/a> as he relaunches the women\u2019s health strategy for England.<\/p>\n

In depth: \u2018Organisations have no idea that their reporting is being used to settle bets\u2019People are making bets on war zone like Ukraine. Photograph: Oleg Petrasiuk\/24th Mechanized Brigade of Ukrainian Armed Forces\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

The trenches of eastern Ukraine are a long way from people gambling on the conflict. But right now on Polymarket, there are millions of dollars at stake over the likelihood of Russia or Ukraine capturing contested towns and cities. Gamblers place bets against each other on different outcomes on the platform. It is, in effect, derivatives trading on world events for the masses.<\/p>\n

If, say, a user believes that Russia will enter the Ukrainian city of Sumy by 30 June, they can buy a \u201cyes\u201d option at the current market likelihood. Buying at a 1% chance means the gambler stands to make one hundred times their money if it happens. Rival gamblers take the other side of the bet, which are all made anonymously using cryptocurrency. Just like traditional derivative markets, the bets themselves can also be traded.<\/p>\n

To critics, the Peter Thiel-backed Polymarket is immoral and should be at least regulated like legalised gambling \u2013 or even banned. Some countries have already moved to outlaw Polymarket and its rivals. In the US, the platform\u2019s fortunes have improved remarkably under the Trump presidency, which has thrown its weight behind the rapidly growing industry. Last year, Donald Trump Jr joined Polymarket\u2019s advisory board<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As the size of wagers has grown, updates on global events have gained a new meaning for users. Official announcements over troop movements and developments in Ukraine, for example, are no longer just updates for anxious civilians and people caught in the war, says Aisha. They have also become key evidence for settling lucrative bets.<\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of the Russia-Ukraine bets are settled with information published by the Institute for the Study of War, a US thinktank. They produce a daily map of the frontline. But these organisations have no idea that their reporting is being used to settle bets on Polymarket. Sometimes they become targeted,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

A real threat<\/p>\n

In March, an Israeli journalist Emanuel Fabian received threatening messages<\/a> from Polymarket users over a report on a minor missile strike near Jerusalem, which became a key data point over an unresolved bet during the fighting between Israel and Iran.<\/p>\n

Fabian had written up an Iranian missile strike in a live blog post, thinking little of it, but was later inundated with messages demanding that he update his story to reflect that missile fragments had hit the earth after an interception instead of a direct hit from a missile.<\/p>\n

After investigating the messages further, the reporter realised they were coming from Polymarket users who stood to profit from a $23m stake over whether or not Iran would strike Israel on 10 March. A \u201cstrike\u201d had to involve a bomb or a missile, non-intercepted, hitting Israeli soil. The people getting in touch with him stood to win if it was determined that a direct strike had not taken place.<\/p>\n

There have been many other examples, she says.<\/p>\n

\u201cA famous bet dispute was whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit to the World Economic Forum last year. Millions of dollars were bet on it. He wore something that was kind of like a suit, but millions of people said it wasn\u2019t because it had cargo pockets on it,\u201d Aisha explains.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen something is contested, it goes to a group of anonymous adjudicators who vote to resolve the bet,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

Insider trading<\/p>\n

There are big questions about corruption risks on Polymarket, says Aisha. Before the US-Iran ceasefire was announced last month, several newly opened accounts on the platform bet a total of nearly $70,000 on a pause in the fighting just before President Trump made that exact announcement. Experts said this suggested inside knowledge, with similar incidents happening before the US and Israel attacked Iran in February.<\/p>\n

\u201cRight before the US-Israeli strikes in early March, there were six wallets that were all created basically on the same day. They were wagering that the US would attack Iran. And they all correctly bet on the strikes. People think they are insiders because they are not regular bets,\u201d says Aisha.<\/p>\n

Frequent Polymarket users have started after the accounts, she says, setting up alerts for when they make a trade so others can copy it.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of them is apparently an insider in the US Federal Reserve. So an alert comes out whenever that insider bets on the Fed interest rate,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

Beyond ethics<\/p>\n

In her conversations with users, Aisha has pressed Polymarket gamblers on the ethics of gambling on war and other world events where lives are at stake. They pushed back strongly, she said. Users say that there is an inherent value in the predictions themselves, arguing that the platform is a source of truth.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor many, it\u2019s a free speech thing. If you\u2019re on the frontline in Ukraine in the fog of war, maybe the government is lying to you. Maybe the news is lying to you. But bets on Polymarket are an open source of information,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n

\u201cSome longtime users feel that it has become a casino. There are thousands of people who are tracking arbitrage opportunities or new ways to make money on geopolitical events that are spilling into the wider world,\u201d she says. \u201cGoldman Sachs now cites Polymarket sentiment in market updates. But it\u2019s so opaque, it\u2019s really hard to know what\u2019s happening.\u201d<\/p>\n

Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.<\/p>\n

What else we\u2019ve been readingJake Snell now works for his local council in Suffolk after encountering a lack of the promised opportunities in engineering and energy. Photograph: Joshua Bright\/The Guardian<\/p>\n

I was saddened by Antonia Shipley\u2019s excellent piece<\/a> about the young people being encouraged to train for careers in the green energy sector, only to leave college with no job prospects. Lucinda Everett, newsletters team<\/p>\n

Ahead of a sweltering summer of sport, the Guardian has launched the fortnightly Hotspot newsletter<\/a>, which covers how the climate crisis intertwines with all of the sports we love. Sign up here<\/a>. Patrick<\/p>\n

Lucy Knight has spent a month<\/a> consuming all things trad wife to understand what it is about the jam-making, couture-wearing women people can\u2019t get enough of. An entertaining, illuminating read. Lucinda<\/p>\n

I was gripped by this tale<\/a> from mountain climber Lucy Shepherd about how she learned to trust her gut while on a climbing trip in Tajikistan. Patrick<\/p>\n

A fascinating read<\/a> on how large language models could change the way humans speak, and even think \u2013 \u201cencouraging us to talk like bosses barking orders\u201d. Lucinda<\/p>\n

SportEngland’s Lauren Hemp celebrates scoring their first goal. Photograph: Isabel Infantes\/Reuters<\/p>\n

Football | Lauren Hemp scored the sole goal in England\u2019s 1-0 win<\/a> against Spain as the Lionesses maintained their perfect record in the 2027 Women\u2019s World Cup qualifiers.<\/p>\n

Football | A second-half Ousmane Demb\u00e9l\u00e9 double gave PSG a 2-0 win at Liverpool, and a 4-0 victory on aggregate<\/a>, in the Champions League quarter-final second leg.<\/p>\n

Cricket | England Test captain Ben Stokes has played down<\/a> suggestions of a disagreement between himself and head coach Brendon McCullum.<\/p>\n

The front pagesGuardian front page 15 April 2026 Photograph: Guardian<\/p>\n

\u201cIran conflict could spark recession with Britain hit hardest in G7 – IMF,\u201d is the splash on the Guardian on Wednesday. \u201cNo exit plan, no idea,\u201d says the Mirror. \u201cUK economy takes triple hit from Iran war,\u201d has the i, while the FT runs with: \u201cWall St bank earnings shatter records as traders thrive on Iran war volatility.\u201d \u201c\u2018We cannot defend Britain with an ever expanding welfare bill\u2019\u201d is the lead story at the Mail, as the Times opts for: \u201cReeves dashes hopes of boost to defence funding.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201c\u2018Wake up\u2019 PM and honour heroes hurt in line of duty,\u201d says the Express. \u201cLabour set to lose control in Wales,\u201d has the Telegraph. \u201cYes yes yes Minister,\u201d writes the Star, while the Sun asks \u201cWho wants to be a billionaire?\u201d Finally, the Metro with: \u201cCheers, Timmy!\u201d<\/p>\n

Today in FocusBritain’s prime minister Keir Starmer meets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, Wednesday, 2 Oct, 2024. Photograph: Omar Havana\/AP<\/p>\n

Is the EU back in vogue?<\/p>\n

This week, the Guardian reported that Labour is planning to bring in new legislation that will forge closer ties between the UK and the EU. Nearly 10 years on from the Brexit vote, the Guardian\u2019s senior correspondent Lisa O\u2019Carroll speaks to Helen Pidd about what a UK-EU reset would look like<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Cartoon of the day | Ella BaronElla Baron on Israel and Lebanon talking Illustration: Ella Baron\/The GuardianThe Upside<\/p>\n

A bit of good news to remind you that the world\u2019s not all bad<\/p>\n

Taken on a trip to Grenada these images explore the connections between landscape and historical trauma, studying the island\u2019s plant life as permanent markers of beauty in a land ravaged by exploitation. Photograph: Steve McQueen<\/p>\n

In 2024, artist and film-maker Steve McQueen visited the Chelsea flower show\u2019s Grenadian pavilion. The beautiful plants he saw, from an island that has experienced such trauma, \u201cfelt like camouflage to questions that should be asked\u201d.<\/p>\n

That summer, he travelled to Grenada and photographed the island\u2019s plants<\/a> as a way of exploring their connection to that trauma. He has now published them in a book, Steve McQueen\u2019s Bounty.<\/p>\n

\u201c[These plants] have been constant witnesses of turmoil and upheaval,\u201d says McQueen. \u201cSometimes the most horrific things happen in the most beautiful places. That\u2019s the perversity of life.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sign up here<\/a> for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday<\/p>\n

Bored at work?<\/p>\n

And finally, the Guardian\u2019s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For punters using the online prediction market Polymarket, almost everything is a chance to make money. Want to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":294401,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[72,113,61,60],"class_list":{"0":"post-399373","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-economy","10":"tag-ie","11":"tag-ireland"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=399373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/399373\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/294401"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=399373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=399373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=399373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}