\n It comes as global energy markets <\/a>are being disrupted by escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, a shock that has already pushed oil prices higher<\/a> and raised the risk of imported inflation across emerging markets. \n <\/p>\n
\n For South Africa, the main pressure is still ahead.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Data from the Central Energy Fund suggests another increase is likely, which could lift transport and food costs more broadly.
\n <\/p>\n
\n That leaves the South African Reserve Bank navigating a narrowing path.
\n <\/p>\n
\n The central bank, now aiming to anchor inflation closer to 3% is expected to look beyond current data and focus on whether the shock proves temporary or persistent, particularly through its impact on oil prices and the rand.
\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cWe have got to be vigilant, but complacency will be our biggest enemy,\u201d Governor Lesetja Kganyago said, warning that inflation shocks can become entrenched if not contained early.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Markets currently expect rates to hold, but the risk of further tightening is rising if price pressures accelerate.
\n <\/p>\n
\n
\n
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<\/p>\n
\n Across Africa, inflation pressures are building again
\n <\/p>\n
\n South Africa\u2019s shift shows a broader trend.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Nigeria, the continent\u2019s third biggest economy, recorded an increase to 15.38% in March from 15.06%, driven largely by higher food and transport costs. The uptick ended a prolonged stretch of easing inflation.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Egypt and Kenya are also seeing renewed pressure as higher fuel costs begin to pass through to consumers.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Egypt\u2019s inflation jumped to 15.2%, its highest since May 2025, after the government raised fuel prices by up to 17% in early March.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Kenya\u2019s central bank is already forecasting inflation to hit 5.7% in April as war-era fuel pricing filters through.
\n <\/p>\n
\n At the centre of the shift is a disruption to global oil supply.
\n <\/p>\n
\n The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for roughly a quarter of the world\u2019s seaborne oil, has driven up energy prices, while also raising the cost of fertilizers and food.
\n <\/p>\n
\n For African economies, the transmission is rapid.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Most rely heavily on imported refined fuel, meaning higher oil prices quickly translate into rising transport costs, more expensive goods, and increased pressure on household budgets.
\n <\/p>\n
\n The impact, however, is uneven.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola may benefit from stronger crude prices at the fiscal level, but households still face rising living costs. For fuel-importing economies, the shock is more direct, with limited buffers to absorb it.
\n <\/p>\n
\n
\n
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\n
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<\/p>\n
\n Rate cuts are no longer guaranteed
\n <\/p>\n
\n The shift in inflation dynamics is already complicating the outlook for monetary policy.
\n <\/p>\n
\n Before the latest oil shock, several African central banks were expected to begin cutting interest rates as inflation slowed. That path is now less certain.
\n <\/p>\n
\n If energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may be forced to hold rates higher for longer, or even tighten further, increasing the risk of slower growth.
\n <\/p>\n
\n In South Africa, the next few months of data will be critical.
\n <\/p>\n
\n March\u2019s uptick may prove to be the first signal that inflation has bottomed out, or the beginning of a broader reversal.
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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