{"id":420522,"date":"2026-04-27T20:29:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T20:29:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/420522\/"},"modified":"2026-04-27T20:29:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T20:29:14","slug":"esc-insight-the-model-finland-at-the-front-as-artists-head-for-eurovision-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/420522\/","title":{"rendered":"ESC Insight | The Model: Finland at the Front as Artists Head for Eurovision 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Model, a Eurovision Song Contest prediction tool, is projecting Finland as the winner of Eurovision 2026 if the contest was held today.<\/p>\n

In the final update before rehearsals begin for the Contest, \u2018Liekinheitin\u2019 by Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen has obtained its highest points projection yet. The Model forecasts Finland to finish with 420 points in the Grand Final on 16 May, giving the country a 62 point lead in this simulation.<\/p>\n

The top five remains the same as in previous weeks, but each country in it has grown its points totals slightly. This is because of a small tweak to the methodology around the proportionality of the voting, which I will elaborate on shortly, that gives a slightly higher percentage of votes to the favourites across the juries and the public vote.<\/p>\n

This week\u2019s update also takes into account all the new data fed into the odds and various fan metrics in the past few days, as well as the beginning of Eurojury \u2013 although there are still many countries\u2019 points to be announced yet.<\/p>\n

In this final update before Austria:<\/p>\n

Which countries are in the best positions ahead of Vienna?
\nWhich songs are gaining momentum at the right time?
\nHow will the race for Eurovision evolve during rehearsals week?<\/p>\n

What Is The Model?<\/p>\n

The Model was built to answer a simple question: \u201cif the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, who would win?\u201d To do that, The Model turns opinion into data in the lead-up to the Contest to create weekly updates on how the race to Vienna is shaping up. The tool has frequently been more successful in predicting the Contest than betting odds, fan polls, or any other indicator.<\/p>\n

This year, The Model is bigger than ever before, with new updates released every Monday from now until Eurovision 2026 on the ESC Insight website, where the results will change and evolve as this year\u2019s Contest comes closer.<\/p>\n

Our weekly companion podcast, \u2018Inside The Model\u2019, is also on the ESC Insight feed, providing weekly prediction updates, unique song analysis, and special guest appearances from the world of the Contest. This week, we\u2019re talking about the most ironically undersung part of the Contest at times \u2013 singing. We\u2019re joined by experienced vocal coach Zoe Stibi<\/a> to talk about vocal technique, vocal rest, and why the Eurovision Song Contest separates experienced singers from young ones \u2013 and what that could mean for the results in Vienna.<\/p>\n

Under the Hood<\/p>\n

This week, I\u2019ve made two changes to The Model \u2013 both of which are closely related to each other.<\/p>\n

One of the hardest things to accurately predict at the Eurovision Song Contest is something I call \u2018proportionality\u2019. It is the rate of votes the top-performing songs get as a proportion of all the points available. The winning total of a song is a good indicator of proportionality \u2013 \u2018Amar Pelos Dois\u2019 definitely had a higher proportion of the vote than \u2018Running Scared\u2019, for example \u2013 but this also feeds into the points of the other high scorers. This varies year-on-year.<\/p>\n

In 2024, the proportionality of the Contest was quite high. The main favourites all scored big points across countries, with \u2018The Code\u2019 securing the highest jury support expressed proportionally of any Eurovision Song Contest entry. Songs like \u2018Rim Tim Tagi Dim\u2019, \u2018Teresa and Maria\u2019 and\u00a0\u2018Mon Amour\u2019 all scored high points. In 2025, however, scoring was much less proportional \u2013 \u2018Wasted Love\u2019 won for Austria, but would have finished behind all of those other songs in 2024.<\/p>\n

This year, The Model has been projecting extremely low proportionality so far. Because of this, I felt it needed a minor tweak. In past projections, there was a modifier in the formula that calculates the points totals from each country that was designed to bring their score down based on their probability of success. However, I\u2019ve made the decision to remove the modifier.<\/p>\n

The difference isn\u2019t huge, but in a version I ran with only this change, Finland went up to 437 points \u2013 I felt, at this stage of the Contest build-up, that this was too high. Because of this, I made a second change to offset some of this, but in a different way.<\/p>\n

There is another metric within The Model to allow for \u2018tactical voting\u2019. This is when a country that is in contention to win may not vote for a rival song in order to increase their winning chances. As the majority of this offset also affects the favourites, I\u2019ve increased its strength to offset the benefit of the increased proportionality within the system.<\/p>\n

In the semi-finals, the first change is included without the second, as tactical voting is not included in the semi-finals due to the fact winning the semi-final is effectively meaningless.<\/p>\n

What this means, in practice, is that top songs get more points from more countries, but can actually lose points with their rival countries \u2013 something much more like Eurovision voting behaviour in the real world. So, while the points make The Model seem more predictable, the real process is anything but.<\/p>\n

And with that, this is what The Model forecasts would happen if the Eurovision Song Contest was held today, 21 April 2026.<\/p>\n

Semi-Final One
\n\"Semi-Final<\/p>\n

Semi-Final One from The Model \u2013 27\/04\/2026 (James Stephenson)<\/p>\n

In Semi-Final One, we can see the effects of that change in proportionality put into practice. Only three songs have gained points, and they have done by big totals. Finland, Greece and Sweden now have higher projected scores with The Model, and they\u2019ve taken their points off of everybody else in the show.<\/p>\n

What this means is that we have a brand-new leader in this semi-final \u2013 for the first time, \u2018Liekinheitin\u2019 leads the way. With 30 more points than last week, Linda and Pete are now scoring 277 points in this simulation, and it is virtually dead-even between the juries (138) and the public (139). Felicia maintains second place for Sweden, but now up to 263, while Israel has taken a small fall of three points to drop to third in this semi-final \u2013 although \u2018Michelle\u2019 is still expected to win the public vote here.<\/p>\n

Greece is a strong climber, too, with \u2018Ferto\u2019 up 20 points week-on-week to 229. Behind them, though, is a sea of red tracker figures. Croatia has kept its fifth place that it has had all season long in The Model, only falling by a couple of points, and most countries have only fallen by single digits. However, Lithuania in eighth has taken the biggest hit, with Lion Ceccah losing 12 points compared with last week\u2019s projection. Moldova, Serbia and Montenegro have all held onto their places, and still look handy to reach the final.<\/p>\n

In the race for the final qualifying spot, Essyla and Belgium is still holding onto tenth. However, Bzikebi and Georgia are one point closer this week than last. With a gap of just three points, this is going to be incredibly difficult to call in Vienna. And, behind them, Poland and even San Marino don\u2019t appear to be out of the picture for a spot. San Marino\u2019s performance is definitely driven by Boy George curiosity for me, while vocal coach Zoe Stibi was extremely effusive about Alicja\u2019s vocals for Poland on Inside The Model this week. That could be a sign of stronger jury potential.<\/p>\n

Portugal remain in 14th, even falling by four points week-on-week. There\u2019s a lot of Eurovision fans (including myself, with my fan hat on) that think that Portugal could once again be the surprise qualifier, much like NAPA were with \u2018Deslocado\u2019 in Basel. But the data doesn\u2019t show it for now \u2013 \u2018Rosa\u2019 is in the bottom five in most fan polls, meaning that it doesn\u2019t seem to be a song that is the hidden darling of the pack just yet. Then again\u2026neither were NAPA.<\/p>\n

Semi-Final Two
\n\"Semi-Final<\/p>\n

Semi-Final Two from The Model \u2013 27\/04\/2026 (James Stephenson)<\/p>\n

In Semi-Final Two, there is a similar trajectory taking shape. Once again, we have a new, first-time semi-final leader and big points increases for the main contenders. However, the movements of each country in this semi-final are a bit more varied, and continue to suggest that this semi-final will be the more difficult to call of the two.<\/p>\n

Leading the way now for The Model, then, is \u2018F\u00f8r Vi G\u00e5r Hjem\u2019 from Denmark. S\u00f8ren Torpegaard Lund is now projected to score 277 points \u2013 the very same as Finland on Tuesday \u2013 with 134 from the juries and 143 from the public nearly as even, too. With S\u00f8ren currently leading the early stages of Eurojury, it\u2019s clear eyes are on him \u2013 I had the chance to speak to the man himself about this, as well as creating the world of \u2018F\u00f8r Vi G\u00e5r Hjem\u2019, for ESC Insight recently.<\/p>\n

Behind them by only three points is Australia. Denmark has climbed 30 while Australia has climbed 18, and \u2018Eclipse\u2019 from Delta Goodrem is still The Model\u2019s favourite to win the most jury points in this show. Further back, we again see the same red tracker figures \u2013 but there are splashes of green right across the board. Behind Ukraine, only down by one point and in a very firm third place, \u2018Jalla\u2019 from Cyprus has gained by three points to 193, while \u2018Choke Me\u2019 from Romania has climbed into the top five in this semi-final for the first time.<\/p>\n

Czechia and Bulgaria have all had minor falls, but Malta\u2019s is surprisingly major: down 31 points in this semi-final. \u2018Bella\u2019 has had more fluctuation in its betting odds than most countries, and its moved around quite a bit from projection to projection. Rounding out the qualifiers are once again Albania in ninth place and Norway in tenth, with Jonas Lovv four points better off this week even though this update should have reduced his song\u2019s total.<\/p>\n

Switzerland is another country that is up on points, with \u2018Alice\u2019 starting to establish itself within The Model as the main challenger for a top 10 spot. Behind Veronica Fusaro, Luxembourg, Armenia and Latvia all have chances of making it, but there are concerns. The Model projects \u2018Mother Nature\u2019 and \u2018\u0112n\u0101\u2019 as weaker ballads than its main rivals for now, while it thinks the juries will ignore \u2018Paloma Rumba\u2019 almost completely. In such a ballad-heavy semi-final, the points totals will be incredibly split, and that could lead to surprising results on the night.<\/p>\n

Grand Final
\n\"The<\/p>\n

The Top Five from The Model \u2013 27\/04\/26 (James Stephenson)<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get into the Grand Final, then, where we see Finland at the front by its biggest margin yet. 420 points, in this Eurovision Song Contest, is a highly competitive score.<\/p>\n

Finland has mainly benefitted on the jury side this week, with almost all of the gains coming from there. \u2018Liekinheitin\u2019 has been seen by many fans as a song with even appeal across juries and public vote, but The Model has been projecting other songs as stronger on the jury end e.g. France, Denmark and Australia. Finland\u2019s gain here is a very good sign.<\/p>\n

Behind \u2018Liekinheitin\u2019, the same pack of contenders all seem to be in range. But, mainly driven by the proportionality change, the margins between them are now extended. Finland\u2019s lead over France, with \u2018Regarde!\u2019 still keeping its runner-up spot, is now 62 points, the biggest The Model has projected yet. Monroe gained four points week-on-week, but that\u2019s one of the lowest of the contenders \u2013 in fact, I\u2019d say that\u2019s an effective drop.<\/p>\n

A factor behind this seems to be the early results from Eurojury. While it\u2019s still very early days (with only 12 countries\u2019 results out as I write), the early scores coming in seem to favour Denmark and Australia\u2019s chances with the juries over France. Remarkably, Finland is even higher than France in those scores for now.<\/p>\n

While you should take those with a healthy pinch of salt, they do indicate some issues for the French team. Denmark has closed the gap to second place as a result, and if S\u00f8ren maintains this pace, he could climb. With some bookmakers, Denmark had overtaken France this morning.<\/p>\n

Israel remains fourth, and Greece remains fifth, with \u2018Ferto\u2019 holding off \u2018Eclipse\u2019 by single-digit points to keep its spot in the graphic for weeks now. And, further down the list, the top ten also stays the same week-on-week, with Ukraine, Sweden, Romania and Czechia completing that for now. At this stage of the Contest, the changes are minor \u2013 that\u2019s because everyone is now eagerly anticipating one essential component becoming clear.<\/p>\n

\"Full<\/p>\n

Full Split Results from The Model \u2013 27\/04\/26 (James Stephenson \/ DouzePoints.app)<\/p>\n

Practice Makes Perfect? The Eurovision Rehearsal Schedule<\/p>\n

The stagings will have a massive impact on The Model. And, from Saturday onwards, we\u2019re going to start getting an idea of what they are. This week, delegations will be getting on flights across Europe to Vienna as the rehearsal schedule begins. And, if you haven\u2019t followed the rehearsals before, I actually thought it might be a good idea to provide a little bit of a guide.<\/p>\n

Based on our understanding of the schedule, things kick off on Saturday. The songs in the first half of the semi-final will get 30 minutes on stage each \u2013 usually enough for three full run-throughs, with the last one usually including any effects or pyro the team has forked out their budget for. We don\u2019t see these rehearsals at all: the only thing you\u2019ll see is still images from them, as well as descriptions from the Eurovision Song Contest digital team.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll be in that loop for four days, with the second half of the first semi-final on Sunday, and then Monday and Tuesday being reserved for songs in the second semi-final. The second rehearsals begin on Wednesday, and go on through Saturday. Each country gets 25 minutes for its second rehearsal, as by this point most technical issues should be ironed out, allowing run-throughs to happen with fewer interruptions. From Wednesday onwards, the Big Four and Austria will also start rehearsing, with their first and second rehearsals packed into a smaller schedule.<\/p>\n

Sunday is a day off for the production crew, but not for the artists as they go to the opening carpet ceremony. And, from Monday onwards, things get serious: the dress rehearsal for the first semi-final is in the early afternoon, where members of the press get to see the performances in full for the first time, and then the first show with a paying public is in the evening. Unlike in previous years, the night before counts, too: that\u2019s when the juries will be giving 50% of the points for the show.<\/p>\n

For The Model, and those of us who track the Contest, this is the critical period for gathering data and information. Stills and descriptions of the rehearsals can give us some indication, although these can lead to large odds swings as fans hype themselves up over something that may be totally different on camera. It\u2019s difficult to determine which is which at this stage.<\/p>\n

The day before each show is the biggest, though. Jury show performances won\u2019t just matter for predictions, as this year they\u2019ll count for half the score. And, that night, the Eurovision Audience Poll (which I am again involved with for ESC Insight) will interview audience members as soon as they come out of the Wiener Stadthalle to find out their favourite entries. Early the day after, the day itself, The Model will make its final projection \u2013 the final prediction.<\/p>\n

With The Model\u2019s latest update, Finland remains in front \u2013 but that is set to keep changing. Next week, we\u2019ll have our first update as rehearsals for the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 begin, and the last before we head to Vienna. So get excited: the answers we\u2019re desperately waiting for will be coming soon.<\/p>\n

Remember, The Model will make weekly projections from now until the contest, updating with new information throughout. If you don\u2019t want to miss any regular weekly update, read The Model on ESC Insight every Monday from now until the Eurovision Song Contest 2026.<\/p>\n

And, if you want to dive deeper behind the numbers, \u2018Inside The Model\u2019 is back this week. I chat with vocal coach Zoe Stibi about just how vital vocals are at Eurovision, and how the best singers manage their vocals to make sure they nail it on the night.<\/p>\n

Finland\u2019s in front \u2013 but will they stay there? See you then for the next update from The Model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Model, a Eurovision Song Contest prediction tool, is projecting Finland as the winner of Eurovision 2026 if…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":420523,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29],"tags":[93,61,60,282],"class_list":["post-420522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tv","tag-entertainment","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-tv"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/420522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=420522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/420522\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/420523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=420522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=420522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=420522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}