{"id":444769,"date":"2026-05-12T10:10:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T10:10:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/444769\/"},"modified":"2026-05-12T10:10:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T10:10:15","slug":"ecb-policymaker-nagel-says-data-will-determine-ecbs-decision-in-june","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/444769\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB policymaker Nagel says data will determine ECB&#8217;s decision in June"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Our mandate requires us to act if inflation expectations de-anchorData will determine ECB&#8217;s decision in JuneBaseline included two rate hikes<\/p>\n<p data-v-6bf95c48=\"\">The ECB has already signalled that a rate hike in June is coming unless the war ends and oil prices fall significantly before then, so I&#8217;m not sure why he places weight on the data.<\/p>\n<p data-v-6bf95c48=\"\">The economic data hasn&#8217;t been screaming for the aggressive rate hikes the market has been pricing in. Right now, there are three hikes expected by year-end.<\/p>\n<p data-v-6bf95c48=\"\">Headline inflation did rise due to energy prices, but we also got a slowdown in economic activity. The latest ECB&#8217;s SAFE survey showed rising inflation expectations in the short-term but no impact on the long-term outlook. Wage growth expectations have also moderated to 2.8% vs 3.1% in the prior quarter.<\/p>\n<p data-v-6bf95c48=\"\">For June, the market is pricing in an 88% probability of a rate hike, so that&#8217;s basically a done deal. It&#8217;s not 100% because there&#8217;s still a chance that the war ends before then and once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, oil prices will almost surely fall quickly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Our mandate requires us to act if inflation expectations de-anchorData will determine ECB&#8217;s decision in JuneBaseline included two&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":444770,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[72,113,61,60],"class_list":["post-444769","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-ie","tag-ireland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/444769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=444769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/444769\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/444770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=444769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=444769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=444769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}