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<\/p>\n\n03:00 May 13 2026\n<\/p>\n
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The Westpac NZ Economics Team’s flagship document covering the outlook for the New Zealand economy, fiscal policy, the global economy, financial markets, and the primary sector.<\/p>\n
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Read full report here (PDF 1MB)<\/a><\/p>\n Under the pump.<\/p>\n The outlook for the economy has shifted dramatically from the optimistic view we held in February. Now we look set for another year of positive but still sub-par growth at 1.5% as the Iran war and the associated rise in oil and refined fuel prices have their impact. Real petrol and diesel prices are now at 50 year highs, and while global oil prices are not at record highs in real terms, they are at levels consistent with past global recessions.\u00a0<\/p>\n We don\u2019t expect a recession right now. Rather the view is that the Iran war will merely cause a pause in the economic recovery. However, these forecasts are highly uncertain as the extent of the interruption to New Zealand\u2019s growth will depend on the duration of the Iran war. We assume conditions there will improve in coming months. But that\u2019s an assumption, not a strongly held informed view.\u00a0<\/p>\n The expected economic hiatus will impact the services sector, retail spending and hospitality the hardest, reflecting the implied hit to household incomes. Tourism will also be interrupted as global uncertainty and airline fare prices remain high. The primary sector should continue to perform relatively well as the exchange rate will remain supportive and global food prices should be underpinned by high global fertiliser prices and reduced global food production.\u00a0<\/p>\n A significant cost squeeze is in train that will pressure firms\u2019 margins but also significantly lift inflation. Annual headline CPI inflation will move into the 4-5% range for a time and lift inflation expectations to some extent. Core inflation looks set to rise above the top of the RBNZ\u2019s target range and require the OCR to rise towards 3% in 2026, and higher through 2027. The duration of the war and the extent to which firms and households try to boost prices and wages to counteract the income shock will dictate the degree of OCR increases ultimately required.\u00a0<\/p>\n Stay informed with Westpac IQ<\/p>\n Get the latest reports straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n 20<\/p>\n {“topicSelector”:[{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/aud”,”name”:”aud”,”description”:””,”title”:”AUD”,”url”:”\/topic.aud”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/australia”,”name”:”australia”,”description”:””,”title”:”Australia”,”url”:”\/topic.australia”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/interestrates”,”name”:”interestrates”,”description”:””,”title”:”Interest rates”,”url”:”\/topic.interestrates”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/nzd”,”name”:”nzd”,”description”:””,”title”:”NZD”,”url”:”\/topic.nzd”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/usd”,”name”:”usd”,”description”:””,”title”:”USD”,”url”:”\/topic.usd”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/newzealand”,”name”:”newzealand”,”description”:””,”title”:”New 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Sydney”,”url”:”\/topic.westernsydney”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/nt”,”name”:”nt”,”description”:””,”title”:”NT”,”url”:”\/topic.nt”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/india”,”name”:”india”,”description”:””,”title”:”India”,”url”:”\/topic.india”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/qeo”,”name”:”qeo”,”description”:””,”title”:”QEO”,”url”:”\/topic.qeo”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/super”,”name”:”super”,”description”:”superannuation”,”title”:”Super”,”url”:”\/topic.super”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/forestry”,”name”:”forestry”,”description”:””,”title”:”Forestry”,”url”:”\/topic.forestry”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/utilities”,”name”:”utilities”,”description”:””,”title”:”Utilities”,”url”:”\/topic.utilities”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/health”,”name”:”health”,”description”:””,”title”:”Health”,”url”:”\/topic.health”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/financialservices”,”name”:”financialservices”,”description”:””,”title”:”Financial services”,”url”:”\/topic.financialservices”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/bobs”,”name”:”bobs”,”description”:””,”title”:”BoBs”,”url”:”\/topic.bobs”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/covid”,”name”:”covid”,”description”:””,”title”:”COVID-19″,”url”:”\/topic.covid”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/aviation”,”name”:”aviation”,”description”:””,”title”:”Aviation”,”url”:”\/topic.aviation”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/liquidity”,”name”:”liquidity”,”description”:””,”title”:”Liquidity”,”url”:”\/topic.liquidity”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/inflationlinked”,”name”:”inflationlinked”,”description”:””,”title”:”Inflation-Linked”,”url”:”\/topic.inflationlinked”},{“tagId”:”westpaciq:topics\/housingpulse”,”name”:”housingpulse”,”description”:””,”title”:”Housing Pulse”,”url”:”\/topic.housingpulse”}]}<\/p>\n Browse topics<\/p>\n Show more tags<\/p>\n Disclaimer<\/p>\n \u00a92026 Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 (including where acting under any of its Westpac, St George, Bank of Melbourne or BankSA 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