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<\/p>\nMore than 70% of people, including a majority of Leave voters, agree that Brexit has been more of a failure than a success in Northern Ireland, an opinion poll has suggested.<\/p>\n
The results of the research from Queen\u2019s University Belfast also indicate two-thirds of people in the region believe Brexit has made the break-up of the UK more likely.<\/p>\n
The polling, carried out for Queen\u2019s by LucidTalk, suggests that close to half of voters (48%) do not agree that the 2016 Brexit referendum was based on a \u201cfair democratic process\u201d, while 40% agree.<\/p>\n
The report is the 15th in the \u201cTesting the Temperature\u201d series on Northern Ireland voters\u2019 views on Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol\/Windsor Framework, led by Professor David Phinnemore and Professor Katy Hayward.<\/p>\n
Previous reports were produced as part of a four-year project led by Queen\u2019s and funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.<\/p>\n
This latest poll was conducted between April 17-20, using a weighted sample of 1,050 respondents from across Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
The survey found declining public understanding among respondents of the Windsor Framework, the post-Brexit deal between the UK and the EU aimed at reducing trading frictions between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n
Poll findings included:<\/p>\n
\u2013 72% of respondents agree that \u201cBrexit has been more of a failure than a success for Northern Ireland\u201d. This includes 60% of Leave respondents.<\/p>\n
\u2013 66% agree that Brexit has made the break-up of the UK more likely; 19% disagree.<\/p>\n
\u2013 More than twice as many agree (52%) than disagree (23%) that their Brexit-related identity, Leaver or Remainer, is \u201cvery important\u201d to them.<\/p>\n
\u2013 46% of respondents now regard the Windsor Framework as \u201con balance a good thing for Northern Ireland\u201d, the lowest level since June 2021, while 38% disagree.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Confidence in the NI Protocol\/Windsor Framework as a tool for managing Brexit\u2019s effects has declined, with only 46% now viewing it as an appropriate means of addressing Brexit in Northern Ireland, down from 61% in summer 2024 and equal to its previous low recorded in spring 2021.<\/p>\n
\u2013 Views among respondents of the framework\u2019s effects on Northern Ireland\u2019s relationship with the rest of the UK remain negative, including on its place in the UK internal market (44% negative vs 28% positive).<\/p>\n
\u2013 Perceptions of the Windsor Framework\u2019s economic impact are more positive than negative, 45% believe it has had a positive effect on the economy, while 37% believe its impact has been negative.<\/p>\n
\u2013 A majority of respondents (57%) believe the Windsor Framework offers unique economic opportunities, down from 68% in summer 2024.<\/p>\n
\u2013 A majority distrust either a Conservative-led (76%) or Reform-led UK government (70%) to protect Northern Ireland\u2019s interests in EU-UK relations.<\/p>\n
\u2013 The SDLP is the most trusted party among respondents on the Windsor Framework (38%).<\/p>\n
\u2013 The TUV the most trusted unionist party (30%) on the issue, though it is also the most strongly distrusted (50%).<\/p>\n
Prof Phinnemore said: \u201cThe poll provides further evidence that understanding of the Windsor Framework is declining.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn part, this is no doubt due to the complexity of some of its arrangements.<\/p>\n
\u201cYet the poll findings also show fewer voters believing reliable information is available.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith the UK and EU negotiating new agreements that are expected to reduce trade frictions arising from the Windsor Framework, it will be important that the new arrangements are clearly and reliably explained.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf they are not, then this will only further damage trust levels in the UK Government and the EU.\u201d<\/p>\n
Professor Hayward said: \u201cTen years after the Brexit referendum, one in two voters in Northern Ireland still see their Leave\/Remain identity as very important \u2013 across both camps and the political spectrum.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis constitutes an additional layer of division broadly on top of existing ones.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe need to manage this with compromise on both sides explains the region\u2019s unique post-Brexit arrangements, ie the Windsor Framework.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt also helps explain why the majority of both Leavers and Remainers here believe \u2013 albeit for different reasons \u2013 that Brexit has been a failure for Northern Ireland.\u201d<\/p>\n
The survey also suggested a preference among voters for closer ties with the EU \u2013 59% of respondents oppose further loosening of UK-EU ties and 57% support the UK rejoining the EU, with strong gender and Remain\/Leave divides.<\/p>\n
Almost three-quarters (73%) of respondents support Ireland using its EU Council Presidency to improve EU-UK relations.<\/p>\n
More than half of respondents (58%) oppose leaving the European Convention on Human Rights while 36% support such an exit.<\/p>\n
The poll has a margin of error of +\/- 2.3%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"More than 70% of people, including a majority of Leave voters, agree that Brexit has been more of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":449303,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[57092,195264,195265,61,60,195266,43,97624,66694,59590,95741],"class_list":["post-449302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ireland","tag-brexit","tag-economic-and-social-research-council","tag-education-and-social-work-at-queens","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-lucidtalk","tag-news","tag-opinion-poll","tag-queens-university-belfast","tag-social-sciences","tag-windsor-framework"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=449302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449302\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/449303"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=449302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=449302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=449302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}