{"id":463011,"date":"2026-05-23T06:58:10","date_gmt":"2026-05-23T06:58:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/463011\/"},"modified":"2026-05-23T06:58:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-23T06:58:10","slug":"ireland-is-facing-a-cocktail-of-uncertainty-the-response-is-not-to-panic-but-to-plan-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/463011\/","title":{"rendered":"Ireland is facing a cocktail of uncertainty. The response is not to panic, but to plan \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

There is one thing Irish<\/a> governments have been able to rely on completely in recent years. Economic <\/a>growth has continued relentlessly, with jobs rising and tax revenue pouring in. The pandemic and the inflationary surge following the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused only temporary interruptions. As most other developed economies struggle through low growth and pressurised public finances, Ireland\u2019s economic exceptionalism has stood out. Eurozone growth averaged 1 per cent over the past three years, while Ireland\u2019s economy has grown by 4.5 per cent annually. <\/p>\n

The broad economic model has been generally accepted across Irish politics \u2013 note Sinn F\u00e9in<\/a>\u2019s visits to the big multinationals before the last election. Instead, the economic debate has been all about how the money is spent on areas such as housing, healthcare and infrastructure. Growth and more jobs have been taken for granted.<\/p>\n

So this week has been a bit of a wake-up call. It will be some months before we can assess its real significance. But the past few days felt different. First, Ireland, which has generally got off lightly from multinational job cuts, got a wallop from a 20 per cent reduction at Meta<\/a>, where 350 jobs will be lost. Then, the latest jobs figures from the Central Statistics Office<\/a> (CSO) showed a downturn in the first quarter, albeit a small one. A crucial few months lie ahead to see how this all plays out.<\/p>\n

It is important to recognise these signs, but also to understand the uncertainties. The key thing about the biggest tech playerssuch as Meta is that \u2013 despite making enormous profits \u2013 they need to find cash to fund their enormous investments in AI. This is not a straight story of AI replacing jobs. As one observer put it, it is cost cutting through reducing jobs and managers then being told to make up the difference with AI. <\/p>\n

This dash for cash among the big companies suggests more tech job cuts lie ahead, though the scale is unclear. And this AI investment \u201cplay\u201d is propping up the world\u2019s financial markets, which now look increasingly vulnerable to any disappointment in the \u2013 very uncertain \u2013 profitability it will yield. Rising long-term interest rates, meanwhile, sit uncomfortably beside high AI-driven equity valuations. <\/p>\n

Meta jobs losses are part of a trend. Up to recently, tech had been one of the sectors driving Irish employment higher. Now, according to the latest CSO figures<\/a>, the sector has shed 20,300 jobs over the past year, or nearly 11 per cent of the total. The continued reversal of Meta in Ireland shows how the country remains vulnerable both to the fortunes of a few big players, but also to whether Irish management can position the operations here favourably in relation to other locations where their parent invests. These battles within companies are opaque, but vital. <\/p>\n

Importantly, tech is not the only sector suffering. The overall employment figures showed job numbers across the economy down by 0.6 per cent \u2013 or 15,600 \u2013 in the first quarter of this year, compared with the previous three months. This is not a huge fall and there is some dispute among economists about the interpretation of these figures, with other jobs market indicators \u2013 such as income tax payments and other CSO data \u2013 more positive. <\/p>\n

Whether it is a slowdown, a standstill or a reversal, the detail of the figures shows that sectors relying on consumer spending, such as restaurants and personal services, are also shedding staff, while retail looks flat. Areas of professional services are also weak. On the flip side, pharma continues to do well and construction \u2013 boosted by large Government spending \u2013 is also hiring, as are other sectors relying on State funding, including education and health. For now Government money is fuelling a lot of the jobs growth either directly or indirectly.<\/p>\n

How this all balances out in the months ahead will be vital. But what is clear is that Ireland is being buffeted by international factors, notably the fallout in the tech sector and the impact of higher energy costs and inflation on domestic businesses and consumers. Ireland\u2019s economic resilience is being tested.<\/p>\n

So this week has pointed to two things \u2013 trouble in tech and a softer overall jobs market. Add in fears over energy prices and you get quite a cocktail of uncertainty. What is the correct policy response? It is, as the management consultants say, to \u201ccontrol the controllables\u201d. Ireland does not need to panic \u2013 it needs to prioritise and deliver.<\/p>\n

A serious exercise of budget planning is needed, abandoning the nonsense of the endless trailing of what may be \u201cgiven away\u201d in October, which is based on the hope that Ireland\u2019s growth outperformance will just go on and on. Ministers must realise that plans may need to be adjusted and that the priority \u2013 as well as helping those worst hit if, for example, energy prices rise further \u2013 is to ensure that vital investment in housing, energy, water, hospitals and so on can continue uninterrupted over the next few years. Cutting State investment was the crucial error during the financial crisis. To repeat it would be criminal.<\/p>\n

Ireland\u2019s rapid growth and huge corporate revenues have allowed a lot of these trade-offs to be dodged over recent years. Spending has soared while the budget stayed in surplus. There has been enough cash around to dole out a bit in pretty much every direction, which has been important politically. But the familiar questions of delivery remain \u2013 nothing like enough houses built, no fixed-line rail project completed since 2012, creaking hospital infrastructure, no new offshore wind turbines turning and so on.<\/p>\n

We don\u2019t know what the next few months will bring in the Gulf, the tech sector, the financial markets and the march of AI. The Government could yet face real difficulties if, for example, the Gulf crisis continues and energy prices surge further. But even if this is avoided, we are entering a slower jobs market and a more mixed picture than the growth seen since the pandemic ended. This will challenge the Coalition in ways we have not seen in recent years. It would be unforgivable if it turns problems into a full-blown crisis through a lack of preparation and an absence of the coherence at the top needed to make clear decisions \u2013 letting things drift on and hoping for the best would not be a good plan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There is one thing Irish governments have been able to rely on completely in recent years. Economic growth…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":30360,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[218,14787,48809,113,61,60,1226,43,1962],"class_list":["post-463011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ireland","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-central-statistics-office","tag-cliff-taylor","tag-economy","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-meta","tag-news","tag-work"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/463011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=463011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/463011\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=463011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=463011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=463011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}