{"id":480738,"date":"2026-06-03T10:14:22","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T10:14:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/480738\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T10:14:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T10:14:22","slug":"rising-crude-and-aluminium-prices-bharat-subramanian-on-what-it-means-for-indias-energy-and-metals-sectors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/480738\/","title":{"rendered":"Rising crude and aluminium prices: Bharat Subramanian on what it means for India’s energy and metals sectors"},"content":{"rendered":"

With West Asian tensions keeping oil elevated and aluminium at four-year highs, analysts are flagging sharply diverging fortunes for upstream explorers versus oil marketing companies, and a new commodity upcycle<\/a> may be under wayOMCs squeezed; upstream explorers stand to gain
Geopolitical tensions in West Asia are the single biggest variable pushing crude prices higher, according to Bharat Subramanian<\/a>, VP\u2013Equity Research at BofA Securities<\/a>. A lasting truce could ease prices, but without one, the rally is likely to continue.
\"Bharat\"ETMarkets.com
For India’s oil marketing companies (OMCs), the pain is twofold. Higher crude directly compresses petrol and diesel marketing margins, while LPG, a subsidised product, is generating losses exceeding \u20b9650 per cylinder. The March 2026 excise duty cuts and subsequent auto-fuel price hikes have provided some cushion, but currency depreciation is adding fresh pressure.”Higher crude prices and currency depreciation \u2014 these are the two key points to watch out for for oil marketing companies right now,” says Subramanian.\"ETLive EventsAnalysts prefer OMCs with a lower net marketing sales-to-refining throughput ratio as a buffer against margin stress. On the flip side, upstream exploration<\/a> and production companies look better positioned, higher crude translates directly into stronger realisations.
Deep-water push and the windfall tax question
A major theme developing in India’s upstream sector is energy security, with growing government focus on deep-water and ultra-deep-water exploration. Last year’s amendment to the ORD Act has improved regulatory stability, potentially attracting global oil majors with deep-water expertise alongside domestic anchor investors.One risk the market is watching: a potential windfall tax. The last imposition capped upstream realisations at $75 per barrel. While analysts flag it as a known risk, the decision ultimately rests with the government.Aluminium bullish into 2027; non-ferrous preferred over steel
Aluminium prices<\/a>, already at four-year highs, could peak around the second quarter of next calendar year according to BofA’s global commodities team. The drivers are supply-side: China is holding firm to its 45 million tonne smelting capacity cap, new Indonesian production is coming online slower than expected, and the Middle East conflict is affecting roughly 9% of global aluminium supply.<\/p>\n

More broadly, analysts are neutral on zinc and favour the non-ferrous metals space over ferrous (iron ore and steel) within the Indian market. On precious metals, BofA’s house forecast for silver sits in the $75\u2013$80 per troy ounce range.<\/p>\n

China remains the swing factor for global commodities
With China accounting for over 50% of global commodity demand, any meaningful demand recovery there would provide a significant tailwind across energy and metals. Analysts say it remains the single most important variable to monitor heading into the second half of 2026 and beyond.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"With West Asian tensions keeping oil elevated and aluminium at four-year highs, analysts are flagging sharply diverging fortunes…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":480739,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[207120,207123,207125,72,207121,207127,113,207124,61,207122,60,207126,207119,132703],"class_list":["post-480738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-aluminium-prices","tag-bharat-subramanian","tag-bofa-securities","tag-business","tag-china-commodity-demand","tag-commodity-upcycle","tag-economy","tag-geopolitical-tensions-west-asia","tag-ie","tag-india-energy-sector","tag-ireland","tag-oil-market-analysis","tag-rising-crude-prices","tag-upstream-exploration"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/480738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=480738"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/480738\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/480739"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=480738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=480738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=480738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}