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An arial view of Midleton during flooding from Storm Babet in October 2023. Picture: Guileen Coast Guard<\/p>\nWeather forecasting has become 1,000 times more efficient because of new artificial intelligence (AI) systems, with advances saving lives, a leading expert will tell politicians.<\/p>\n
Professor Andrew Parnell, director of UCD\u2019s Aimsir research centre, will outline how weather forecasting has been \u201ccompletely upended\u201d by AI over the past three to four years, when he appears before the joint Oireachtas committee on AI.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur traditional weather forecasts are based on mathematical equations of the atmospheric system and have served us well over the last 70 years,\u201d he will say.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor example, back in the 1960s, our error in estimating the track of an Atlantic storm for where it would be in three days\u2019 time was over 700km. By the early 2020s, with satellites and our modern computational systems, it has fallen to around 100km.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe one-day forecast is now below 50km. These advances have saved countless lives both in Ireland and across the world,\u201d Mr Parnell will tell the committee.<\/p>\n
An arial view of Midleton during flooding from Storm Babet in October 2023. Picture: Guileen Coast Guard<\/p>\n
In 2022, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, funded by 23 European countries including Ireland, released its AI weather forecasting system AIFS, which now beats the latest traditional weather forecasting approaches by 10-15%.<\/p>\n
\u201cPerhaps the most remarkable statistic about this new AI method is that it is estimated to be 1,000 times more efficient at producing a weather forecast than our previous approaches,\u201d the academic will say.<\/p>\n
\u201cWeather forecasts can be obtained in a fraction of a second, even on a standard laptop that you or I might have on our desks\u201d.<\/p>\n
Mr Parnell will tell the committee that the purchase and deployment of the new Caspir high-performance computing system through the Irish Centre for High-End Computing is \u201cvital\u201d for keeping Ireland at the forefront of the data-driven prediction aspect of AI.<\/p>\n
However, professor Jennie Stephens, of the Icarus climate research centre at Maynooth University, will warn of the damaging impact AI is having and will call for a ban on new data centres here.<\/p>\n