{"id":50016,"date":"2025-09-29T05:27:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T05:27:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/50016\/"},"modified":"2025-09-29T05:27:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T05:27:08","slug":"aemo-forecasts-msl1-for-the-coming-saturday-4th-october-2025-and-sunday-5th-october-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/50016\/","title":{"rendered":"AEMO forecasts MSL1 for the coming Saturday 4th October 2025 and Sunday 5th October 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nPosted by Paul McArdle<\/a>Monday 29th September 2025\u00a0 3:16 PM\u00a0 \u00a0Topic: 2025-09-29<\/a>, 2025-10-04<\/a>, 2025-10-05<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

A short note to flag two Market Notices published Monday afternoon 29th September 2025<\/a> as follows, looking forward to this weekend (Saturday 4th October 2025<\/a> and Sunday 5th October 2025<\/a>):<\/p>\n

Saturday 4th October 2025
\nSunday 5th October 2025<\/p>\n

Firstly at 14:50:05 the AEMO published MN129372 as follows:<\/p>\n

\u2018\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014
MARKET NOTICE
\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n

From :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 AEMO
To\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 29\/09\/2025\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:50:05<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n

Notice ID\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 129372
Notice Type ID\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MSL1\/MSL2\/MSL3
Issue Date\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 29\/09\/2025
External Reference\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the VIC region on 04\/10\/2025<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n

Reason :<\/p>\n

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE<\/p>\n

AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 04\/10\/2025.<\/p>\n

Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
o\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MSL1 \u2013 1675 MW
o\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MSL2 \u2013 1175 MW
o\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MSL3 \u2013 675 MW<\/p>\n

The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:<\/p>\n

From 1200 hrs to 1330 hrs 04\/10\/2025. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1547 MW at 1300 hrs.<\/p>\n

Forecast regional demand (DEMAND50) is published in Short Term and Pre-Dispatch PASA region solution reports available on Market Data NEMWEB: https:\/\/aemo.com.au\/en\/energy-systems\/electricity\/national-electricity-market-nem\/data-nem\/market-data-nemweb<\/a>.<\/p>\n

AEMO Operations<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-
END OF REPORT
\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013\u2019<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Then at 14:50:18 the AEMO published MN129373 as follows:<\/p>\n

\u2018\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-
MARKET NOTICE
\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

From :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 AEMO
To\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NEMITWEB1
Creation Date :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 29\/09\/2025\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 14:50:18<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n

Notice ID\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 129373
Notice Type ID\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MSL1\/MSL2\/MSL3
Issue Date\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 29\/09\/2025
External Reference\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 :\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the VIC region on 05\/10\/2025<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-<\/p>\n

Reason :<\/p>\n

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE<\/p>\n

AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 05\/10\/2025.<\/p>\n

Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
o\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MSL1 \u2013 1535 MW
o\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MSL2 \u2013 1035 MW
o\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 MSL3 \u2013 535 MW <\/p>\n

The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:<\/p>\n

From 1100 hrs to 1300 hrs 05\/10\/2025. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1399 MW at 1230 hrs.<\/p>\n

Forecast regional demand (DEMAND50) is published in Short Term and Pre-Dispatch PASA region solution reports available on Market Data NEMWEB: https:\/\/aemo.com.au\/en\/energy-systems\/electricity\/national-electricity-market-nem\/data-nem\/market-data-nemweb<\/a> .<\/p>\n

AEMO Operations<\/p>\n

\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-
END OF REPORT
\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014-\u2019<\/p>\n

With the \u2018Forecast Convergence\u2019 widget<\/a> in ez2view<\/a>, we take a quick look at forecast for the \u2018DEMAND50\u2019 term the AEMO references above in the STPASA time horizon:<\/p>\n

\"2025-09-29-at-15-10-ez2view-ForecastConvergence-MSL\"<\/a><\/p>\n

If time permitted, this might be one to watch more\u2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Posted by Paul McArdleMonday 29th September 2025\u00a0 3:16 PM\u00a0 \u00a0Topic: 2025-09-29, 2025-10-04, 2025-10-05 A short note to flag…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50017,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[72,61,60,123],"class_list":["post-50016","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50016\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}