Oil prices extended losses today, as markets weighed prospects for a resumption of supply through the key Strait of Hormuz against shaky physical market drivers and a lack of details from a preliminary deal to end the Iran war.<\/p>\n
Brent crude futures were down 45 cents, or 0.5%, at $82.72 a barrel early this morning, and US West Texas Intermediate was down 24 cents, or 0.3%, at $80.51 a barrel.<\/p>\n
Oil prices fell nearly 5% to their lowest close since March 4 yesterday, after U.S. President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding was signed to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, though full details have not been made public.<\/p>\n
The hostilities led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that typically carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supply before the conflict.<\/p>\n
Some analysts expect a resumption of supply soon via the Strait, with other factors weighing down physical market prices.<\/p>\n
“From here, it likely takes several weeks for tanker flow to be restored,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a client note.<\/p>\n
“We see 50% of production back by September, and 80% by December, slightly faster than before.”<\/p>\n
A broad range of indicators had signalled weakness in physical oil markets in recent weeks, they added.<\/p>\n
“High US exports and low China imports are the key drivers (and) in the short term (ie next weeks) they do not seem to come to an end just yet,” they noted.<\/p>\n
China’s crude imports slumped 29% in May to their lowest in eight years, extending a dramatic decline for the world’s largest importer, with its liftings of Saudi Arabian crude expected to also fall in July.<\/p>\n
Early indications are that the US-Iran deal would reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire for 60 days, allowing negotiators to tackle difficult issues such as the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.<\/p>\n
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian yesterday called the US-Iran pact an “important step” toward stopping the fighting but cautioned a final agreement for a lasting truce “has yet to take shape”.<\/p>\n
But with full details yet to emerge and a permanent truce still to be reached, overall price weakness is limited.<\/p>\n
Suvro Sarkar, the head of DBS Bank’s energy research, said the deal’s first phase, encompassing the Geneva signing of an extension of the 60-day ceasefire, was easy, would buy time and kick the “nuclear can” down the road.<\/p>\n
But the second phase, to be watched most closely by markets for its physical impact, is the phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the wind-down of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and vessels, he added.<\/p>\n
“Anything other than a clean simultaneous unlock will mean renewed volatility in oil prices,” Sarkar said. “Given the trust deficit so far, it will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of weeks.”<\/p>\n
A senior Iranian official said yesterday that Iran would freeze its nuclear activity until a final agreement, and refrain from further uranium enrichment or expansion of nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Oil prices extended losses today, as markets weighed prospects for a resumption of supply through the key Strait…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":502297,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[72,113,61,60],"class_list":["post-502296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-ie","tag-ireland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=502296"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502296\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/502297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=502296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=502296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=502296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}