reports<\/a> this week that the British currency will likely be immune to news of Andy Burnham winning the Makerfield by-election, given it’s a result that’s been well telegraphed by polling and bookie odds for some time.<\/p>\nThe implication of a well-known outcome is a muted currency market reaction, which should be reflected in Friday’s FX trade.<\/p>\n
However, seasoned FX veterans at CIBC Capital Markets think there is still some volatility to be had on the event.<\/p>\n
Noah Buffam at CIBC Capital Markets said in a preview note, out last week, that although it “appears well priced at this point,” it’s not entirely priced.<\/p>\n
He notes that a 10% drop in Kalshi odds in favour of Burnham on June 11 translated into an approximate 10 pip move in EUR\/GBP.<\/p>\n
“This suggests that a win for Burnham could lead to 20 pips of upside in EUR\/GBP,” says Buffam.<\/p>\n
As is always the case in FX, the biggest market moves tend to follow the biggest surprises. And here, the surprise would be Burnham losing to Reform’s Robert Kenyon.<\/p>\n
Buffam estimates there’s potentially “80 pips of downside on a loss” for EUR\/GBP.<\/p>\n
Given today’s prices, that takes EUR\/GBP down to 0.8563.<\/p>\n
For the pound-to-euro exchange rate, that would translate into a push through resistance at 1.16 to 1.1687, delivering the highest levels in more than a year.<\/p>\n
![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/GBPEUR_2026-06-16_08-12-23.png\")
<\/p>\n
As always, with these predictions, it must be caveated that the call by CIBC was made last week at different levels. Global contexts have shifted with the war in Iran looking a little closer to ending.<\/p>\n
Then there’s the Bank of England policy decision that also falls on Thursday.<\/p>\n
So this estimate is not a fixed forecast, instead it should serve as a guide to indicate that there remains the potential for volatility on Thursday’s election result.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Image \u00a9 Adobe Images Analysts at CIBC Capital Markets say don’t discount a post-Makerfield move. Pound Sterling Live…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":503758,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[72,61,60],"class_list":["post-503757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-business","tag-ie","tag-ireland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/503757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=503757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/503757\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/503758"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=503757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=503757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=503757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/polling-station-uk-election-and-british-pound.jpg\")
<\/p>\n