Today\u2019s quarterly report from the Central Bank contains the familiar warnings about the reliance of the public finances on potentially volatile corporate taxes. Both the report and S\u00e9amus Coffey, the chairman of the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Ifac) \u2013 appearing this week before the Budget Oversight Committee \u2013 have drawn parallels between this and Ireland\u2019s reliance on property-related taxes in the run up to the 2008 financial crash. <\/p>\n
However, the Central Bank also looks at the issue from another perspective. Ireland is in a relatively strong economic position and this gives what it calls a \u201cwindow of opportunity\u201d to underpin the public finances for the years ahead and to invest in vital infrastructure.<\/p>\n
The point is that this window will start to close at some stage and that puts pressure on the Government to deliver. The old adage is never to waste a crisis. But Ireland is at risk of not taking full advantage of an unprecedented tax boom. <\/p>\n
Government spending has already risen by around 50 per cent since 2019 in cash terms. However, the Central Bank calculates that when this is adjusted for inflation and the growth in the population, the rise since then is a more modest 15 per cent per capita, compared to an EU average of 11 per cent. The boom in corporate taxes has been vital in paying for this, rising from 12 per cent of tax revenues in 2019 to 23 per cent now. <\/p>\n
Looking at the headline figures, there is still room for manoeuvre, with a significant surplus of \u20ac9 billion forecast for this year. Like Ifac, the Central Bank points to an \u201cunderlying\u201d deficit when what is estimated to be the windfall element of corporate tax is removed. But the political reality is that, for now, the cash is there. <\/p>\n
To manage this, the Coalition faces two key jobs. One is the obvious one, which is to get value for money from State investment and accelerate its delivery. The launch of another new fund, designed to plug gaps in infrastructural investment necessary for new housing, shows the huge spending now being undertaken. As the Central Bank points out, there is a significant task of management in planning and sequencing investment in an economy already at full capacity. <\/p>\n
The second key focus of the Coalition must be getting a grip on the budget figures. This may sound obvious, but the degree of overspending in recent years has cast serious doubt on the credibility of the whole budgetary process. In some years \u2013 for example during Covid-19 \u2013 it was indeed necessary to tear up the plan. But in more recent years overspending has become routine.<\/p>\n
Both the Central Bank and Ifac argue that a new spending rule is required. And they are right. But the first job in reducing risk is to meet existing budget targets and put some credibility back into the process. The opportunity is there, but taking advantage of it requires some choices to be made.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Today\u2019s quarterly report from the Central Bank contains the familiar warnings about the reliance of the public finances…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":505551,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[61,60,43],"class_list":["post-505550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ireland","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/505550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=505550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/505550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/505551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=505550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=505550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=505550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}