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Justice Minister Jim O\u2019Callaghan during a panel discussion at the MAC Theatre in Belfast (Liam McBurney\/PA)<\/p>\nA Reform-led government in the UK that seeks to \u201cdouble down on Brexit\u201d could act as an \u201caccelerator\u201d towards Irish reunification, former taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said.<\/p>\n
Minister for Justice Jim O\u2019Callaghan also suggested that a rise in English nationalism could influence the debate on Northern Ireland\u2019s constitutional future and potentially bring forward the timing of any future referenda on unity.<\/p>\n
O\u2019Callaghan also restated his view that organisations such as the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) could be retained in a united Ireland, and could work alongside An Garda S\u00edoch\u00e1na, much like separate police forces operate in different areas of England.<\/p>\n
Justice Minister Jim O\u2019Callaghan during a panel discussion at the MAC Theatre in Belfast (Liam McBurney\/PA)<\/p>\n
Both men made the comments as they took part in discussions at an event in Belfast focused on the future relationship between the island of Ireland and Britain and the prospect of Irish unification.<\/p>\n
Former Fine Gael leader Varadkar said the Brexit referendum had acted as an \u201caccelerator for change\u201d when it came to the debate on Northern Ireland\u2019s future.<\/p>\n
He said the election of a Reform UK government could have a similar effect, especially if the party pressed for a UK withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).<\/p>\n
Such a move would pose profound questions for Northern Ireland, given much of the Good Friday peace agreement of 1998 is underpinned by the convention.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think there is a possibility that an accelerator could be a UK government led by Reform, led by Nigel Farage, that doubles down on Brexit, that takes this view that Brexit failed because it wasn\u2019t done properly, and looks for a harder separation from the EU, and reopens these questions around ECHR, where the checks are done, and so on,\u201d said Varadkar.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s a possibility, and it\u2019s a possibility that might be closer than we think.\u201d<\/p>\n
Varadkar said he considered a Reform-led government a \u201cpossibility\u201d rather than a \u201cprobability\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think, in the end, the UK won\u2019t vote for Reform,\u201d the former taoiseach said, as he suggested Andy Burnham may call, and win, a snap general election if elected Labour leader.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m not predicting this, but I think we have to consider the possibility that a UK election, a UK Westminster election, which we were certain was going to be in 2029, now could happen in 2027 and there\u2019s a possibility, although not a probability, that that could result in a Reform-led government or Reform\/Conservative coalition, and we have to think about the consequences of that,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Varadkar\u2019s successor as Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris, recently announced that his party would set out its vision for a united Ireland later this year.<\/p>\n
\u201cI was very happy about it, and I\u2019m very glad to see that Fine Gael will be active in this space and part of this debate, so it was welcome,\u201d Varadkar told the Future of these Islands event.<\/p>\n
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(left to right) Former first minister of Wales Mark Drakeford, SDLP leader Claire Hanna, Justice Minister Jim O\u2019Callaghan, Scottish Government minister Stephen Gethins and Opposition leader at the Stormont Assembly Matthew O\u2019Toole (Liam McBurney\/PA)<\/p>\n
Fianna F\u00e1il TD O\u2019Callaghan said he was not concerned that Fine Gael had made that move on the issue of reunification.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think it\u2019s healthy that political parties in the south are preparing and discussing this issue,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Under the terms\u00a0of\u00a0the Good Friday Agreement, a\u00a0border\u00a0poll on reunification\u00a0should be called in Northern Ireland by the incumbent Northern Ireland\u00a0Secretary\u00a0when he\/she believes there is evidence that public opinion in the region has shifted in favour\u00a0of\u00a0constitutional change. In that event, a\u00a0simultaneous\u00a0poll\u00a0would also be held in the Republic\u00a0of\u00a0Ireland.<\/p>\n
Successive UK governments have consistently declined to specify publicly what criteria will be applied when measuring public sentiment on the issue.<\/p>\n
Outgoing prime minister Keir Starmer has previously insisted the question of calling a referendum is \u201cnot even on the horizon\u201d.<\/p>\n
O\u2019Callaghan published his own paper in 2021, setting out his ideas on what a united Ireland could look like.<\/p>\n
Those included retaining a role for Stormont and the retention of the PSNI as a stand-alone police service for the region.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, the justice minister said political events were likely to be inherently unpredictable in the coming 10 years.<\/p>\n
I think there is a possibility that an accelerator could be a UK government led by reform, led by Nigel Farage, that doubles down on Brexit, that takes this view that Brexit failed because it wasn’t done properly, and looks for a harder separation from the EU, and reopens these questions around ECHR, where the checks are done, and so on. That’s a possibility, and it’s a possibility that might be closer than we think.<\/p>\n
Leo Varadkar<\/p>\n
Asked by reporters if he believed referenda could be held by the end of this decade, O\u2019Callaghan said that could be the case if Reform UK came to power.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere could be (a poll in the next four years) if Reform came to power, if they decided that they wanted to get out of the European Convention on Human Rights and if that required them to dispense with Northern Ireland, that could occur, but I can\u2019t predict the future,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t know a date as to when there will be a border poll, but I think it is worthwhile having discussions like this as we have had today.\u201d<\/p>\n
O\u2019Callaghan said there was an onus on future Irish governments to start planning for constitutional change.<\/p>\n
He acknowledged that would create a \u201csensitive political issue\u201d for the authorities in Dublin amid concerns about antagonising unionists in Northern Ireland.<\/p>\n
The TD said he felt the way to address those sensitivities would be to initially frame the question in the context of the Republic of Ireland and its citizens, rather than broadening the debate to the whole island.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think a future Irish government is going to have to prepare for constitutional change,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cObviously that decision and the process by which an Irish government prepares for it is a sensitive political issue in itself because we have to be conscious not represented in this room (the event venue in Belfast) is a significant population within Northern Ireland whose political representatives don\u2019t want to engage with this issue.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd how does an Irish government put in place a preparatory scheme which isn\u2019t seen by unionism as being threatening or an attempt to steamroller them into something they don\u2019t want to do, and that is a sensitive issue.\u201d<\/p>\n
The prospect of a Reform-led or Reform-infused UK government is serious, and every single speaker acknowledged the reality of that<\/p>\n
Claire Hanna, SDLP leader<\/p>\n
On the potential of confining the planning to the Republic of Ireland in the first instance, O\u2019Callaghan added: \u201cThat is a sensitive way for the Irish state to put out what it is we\u2019re prepared to do to achieve Irish reunification, and I think that could be seen as something that isn\u2019t threatening or insensitive to other people.<\/p>\n
“There are people in this room who may be completely unsupportive of that and they may say, \u2018well, why aren\u2019t people in Northern Ireland having a say in the future of our island?\u2019.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut I think it\u2019s a sensitive way of starting the discussion by an Irish government in the south.\u201d<\/p>\n
SDLP leader Claire Hanna welcomed the contributions made during Thursday\u2019s event at the MAC Belfast.<\/p>\n
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