{"id":530399,"date":"2026-07-03T02:44:35","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T02:44:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/530399\/"},"modified":"2026-07-03T02:44:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T02:44:35","slug":"is-another-economic-recession-on-the-horizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/530399\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Another Economic Recession on the Horizon?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here\u2019s the weird thing about a recession: By the time it\u2019s official, it\u2019s probably over.<\/p>\n<p>The National Bureau of Economic Research, a private nonprofit organization, determines whether a recession has occurred if there has been a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the country. However, because it takes the NBER several months to analyze the data \u2014 which includes a range of monthly measures of economic activity published by different federal agencies and other organizations \u2014 a recession may already be over by the time it makes a determination.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, that doesn\u2019t stop economists, investors, business owners and others from predicting whether a recession is imminent based on different factors such as the unemployment rate, interest rates and consumer spending.<\/p>\n<p>Currently, many economists don\u2019t believe the U.S. is at risk of a recession, despite the recent spike in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aarp.org\/money\/personal-finance\/high-gas-prices-saving-tips\/\" data-overlay-msg=\"AARP.Everywhere.LeavingModal.drawOverlay(this,&#039;&#039;,\/content\/dam\/content-fragments\/aarp-org\/en\/article\/money\/personal-finance\/2026\/dollars-and-sense-recession.html,&#039;&#039;,&#039;You are now leaving AARP.org and going to a website that is not operated by AARP. A different privacy policy and terms of service will apply.&#039;);return false;\" title=\"gas savings tips\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">energy prices<\/a>, which caused the Consumer Price Index, a measure of inflation, to rise 4.2 percent in May, its highest level since April 2023. However, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal said that if oil prices continue to remain elevated, the risk of a recession could rise.<\/p>\n<p>             <img decoding=\"async\" class=\"uxdia-c-spinner\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.aarp.net\/etc\/uxdia\/images\/uxdia-spinner.svg\" role=\"presentation\"\/><\/p>\n<p>                        <img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"cmp-image__image cmp-image__image@tablet\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/1140-sandra-illo-navy.png\" alt=\"Dollars and Sense\" width=\"1140\" height=\"1140\" loading=\"eager\"\/><\/p>\n<p>One survey respondent noted that the U.S. economy has shown resilience despite disruptions created by the war in Iran and other circumstances. The unemployment rate remains low, at 4.3 percent in May, and consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of gross domestic product, or GDP (the total value of goods and services produced in the U.S.), is still relatively strong. That said, the Conference Board\u2019s Consumer Confidence Survey, which measures how consumers feel about business and labor market conditions, slipped in May, reflecting concerns about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aarp.org\/money\/personal-finance\/what-to-know-about-inflation\/\" data-overlay-msg=\"AARP.Everywhere.LeavingModal.drawOverlay(this,&#039;&#039;,\/content\/dam\/content-fragments\/aarp-org\/en\/article\/money\/personal-finance\/2026\/dollars-and-sense-recession.html,&#039;&#039;,&#039;You are now leaving AARP.org and going to a website that is not operated by AARP. A different privacy policy and terms of service will apply.&#039;);return false;\" title=\"what to know about inflation\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">inflation<\/a> and the war in Iran.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Here\u2019s the weird thing about a recession: By the time it\u2019s official, it\u2019s probably over. The National Bureau&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":530400,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[225772,72,113,225773,61,60,1099,225771],"class_list":["post-530399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-are-we-in-a-recession","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-economyis-a-recession-on-the-way-members-only","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-recession","tag-what-is-a-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/530399","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=530399"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/530399\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/530400"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=530399"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=530399"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=530399"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}