{"id":552056,"date":"2026-07-16T04:03:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T04:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/552056\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T04:03:07","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T04:03:07","slug":"the-legend-of-st-swithin-and-his-15-july-weather-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/552056\/","title":{"rendered":"The legend of St Swithin and his 15 July weather forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Analysis: saints, witches and sin all played a part in how our ancestors predicted the weather <\/p>\n<p>By <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/helen-parish-872488\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Helen Parish<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-reading-902\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">University of Reading<\/a><\/p>\n<p>On July 15th 971, the bones of <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Swithun\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">St Swithin<\/a> were removed from their resting place on the order of Aethelwold, Bishop of Winchester, and placed in a shrine inside the cathedral. The saint, it seemed, did not approve. A violent storm followed, and rain fell for 40 days. And from that story came the belief that the weather on July 15th predicted a summer of sun or rain.<\/p>\n<p>St Swithin&#8217;s day if thou dost rain&#8217;<br \/>For forty days it will remain;<br \/>St Swithin&#8217;s day if thou be fair,<br \/>For forty days will rain na mair.<\/p>\n<p>Technology might give us access to minute-by-minute forecasts, but how humans read the skies has long been shaped by a heady mix of meteorology, magic, and miracles.<\/p>\n<p alt=\"RT\u00c9 News : Heavy Rain On Feast Of St Swithin \" class=\"tpe\" data-description=\"An RT\u00c9 News report broadcast in 1975.\" data-embed=\"rte-player\" data-id=\"11727194\" data-ot-category=\"C0004\" data-title=\"An RT\u00c9 News report broadcast in 1975.\">We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.<a class=\"blocked-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/brainstorm\/2026\/0715\/1235212-st-swithin-15-july-summer-weather-40-days-of-rain-sunshine\/javascript:void(0);\" onclick=\"OneTrust.ToggleInfoDisplay()\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Manage Preferences<\/a><\/p>\n<p>From RT\u00c9 Archives, Derek Davis reports for RT\u00c9 News on a wet summer&#8217;s day on St Swithin&#8217;s Day 1975<\/p>\n<p>The origins of the legend of St Swithin are questionable. Early sources suggest that St Swithin himself requested the removal of his bones to the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bl.uk\/manuscripts\/Viewer.aspx?ref=harley_ms_261_fs001r\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cathedral<\/a>. Why then would the saint stir up a storm? The first written record tying St Swithin to weather forecasting is linked to a torrential downpour in <a href=\"https:\/\/premium.weatherweb.net\/weather-in-history-1300-to-1399-ad\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">1315<\/a>, some 500 years after his bones were moved, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/projectbritain.com\/stswithun.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rhyme<\/a> above dates from some three centuries after that.<\/p>\n<p>Has it ever rained for 40 consecutive days after July 15th? Not according to weather <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-10644550\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">records.<\/a> The closest it might have got was in 1924 when (according to the <a href=\"http:\/\/guinnessworldrecords.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Guinness Book of World Records<\/a>) 30 of the 40 days after St Swithin&#8217;s day were wet, but 13.5 hours of sunshine were recorded on July 15th.<\/p>\n<p>There might, however, be a glimmer of truth in the legend. Summer weather here is shaped by the position of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.metoffice.gov.uk\/weather\/learn-about\/weather\/types-of-weather\/wind\/what-is-the-jet-stream\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">jet stream<\/a>. A northerly position in early July will make a drier, sunnier summer more likely, but a southerly position will often usher in a period of unsettled weather. St Swithin&#8217;s day could well be a useful barometer.<\/p>\n<p alt=\"Where did all the historical Irish weather data go?\" class=\"tpe\" data-description=\"Hidden and lost weather observations contain hugely valuable information about historical climate variability and changes. By Kevin Healion, Simon Noone, David Smyth, Peter Thorne, Maynooth University; Ciara Ryan, Met \u00c9ireann and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading.\" data-embed=\"rte-player\" data-id=\"22430558\" data-ot-category=\"C0004\" data-title=\"Hidden and lost weather observations contain hugely valuable information about historical climate variability and changes. By Kevin Healion, Simon Noone, David Smyth, Peter Thorne, Maynooth University; Ciara Ryan, Met \u00c9ireann and Ed Hawkins, University of Reading.\" id=\"22430558\">We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.<a class=\"blocked-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/brainstorm\/2026\/0715\/1235212-st-swithin-15-july-summer-weather-40-days-of-rain-sunshine\/javascript:void(0);\" onclick=\"OneTrust.ToggleInfoDisplay()\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Manage Preferences<\/a><\/p>\n<p>From RT\u00c9 Brainstorm, where did all the historical Irish weather data go? <\/p>\n<p>If St Swithin is responsible, he&#8217;s not alone. Other saints whose feast days fall in June and July are also associated with weather forecasting. Rain on <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Gervasius_and_Protasius\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">St Gervase&#8217;s day<\/a> on June 19th predicts 40 days of wet weather, while a damp feast of the Seven Sleepers (in Germany, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndr.de\/ratgeber\/Siebenschlaefer-Stimmt-die-Bauernregel-ueber-das-Wetter,siebenschlaefer126.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Siebenschl\u00e4fertag<\/a>) on June 27th will usher in seven weeks of rain.<\/p>\n<p>St Swithin&#8217;s legend is just one part of a complex picture of human interaction with the weather. Snow and sun, hot and cold, are written into our society, culture and language. And the skies are as a blank canvas on which humans paint their own beliefs and fears.<\/p>\n<p>Punishing sin<\/p>\n<p>Current concerns about climate change differ from those of our ancestors. Smaller local changes in weather were often of more immediate importance because of the threat that they posed, but also because of the message that they carried.<\/p>\n<p>That message was often from God, an interventionist deity who used nature \u2013 storms, floods, drought \u2013 to communicate with humanity. The Bible contains ample precedents: when his people would not repent, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.biblegateway.com\/passage\/?search=Genesis+6&amp;version=KJV\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">God warned Noah<\/a> that he would &#8220;bring a flood of waters upon the earth&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p alt=\"Weather and Climate: Fact and Fiction\" class=\"tpe\" data-description=\"In this month's episode of the Met \u00c9ireann Podcast, Liz and Noel are investigating these weather sayings to separate fact from fiction. From red skies at night to cows lying down, we hear about how these sayings may have developed and if they have a meteorological leg to stand on!\" data-embed=\"rte-player\" data-id=\"21913955\" data-ot-category=\"C0004\" data-title=\"In this month's episode of the Met \u00c9ireann Podcast, Liz and Noel are investigating these weather sayings to separate fact from fiction. From red skies at night to cows lying down, we hear about how these sayings may have developed and if they have a meteorological leg to stand on!\">We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.<a class=\"blocked-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/brainstorm\/2026\/0715\/1235212-st-swithin-15-july-summer-weather-40-days-of-rain-sunshine\/javascript:void(0);\" onclick=\"OneTrust.ToggleInfoDisplay()\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Manage Preferences<\/a><\/p>\n<p>From the Met \u00c9ireann podcast, do sayings around the weather, from red skies at night to cows lying down, have a meteorological leg to stand on?<\/p>\n<p>Churches responded to both successful harvests and natural calamities with prayer and fasting. The English <a href=\"http:\/\/justus.anglican.org\/resources\/bcp\/1549\/BCP_1549.htm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Book of Common Prayer<\/a> (1549) attributed a &#8220;plague of rain and waters&#8221; to human sin. And in 1598, a preacher from Sussex, in the south of England, declared that famine, floods and unseasonable weather were &#8220;a sermon of repentance&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Raising tempests<\/p>\n<p>Weather was where the natural and the supernatural met. But it was not just God and his saints who could manipulate the weather.<\/p>\n<p>A &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.historicalclimatology.com\/features\/the-good-bad-undefined-little-ice-age\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">mini ice age<\/a>&#8221; in Europe (c.1300-1850) led to severe winters and cold, wet summers in which harvests failed. In these conditions, plague, famine and fear combined to fuel the belief that unnatural weather was the work of witches.<\/p>\n<p alt=\"The sun is shining on St Swithin's Day - can we expect 40 days of fine...\" class=\"tpe\" data-description=\"For more, Folklore Historian, Dr Marion McGarry from the Atlantic Technological University.\" data-embed=\"rte-player\" data-id=\"22630076\" data-ot-category=\"C0004\" data-title=\"For more, Folklore Historian, Dr Marion McGarry from the Atlantic Technological University.\" id=\"22630076\">We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.<a class=\"blocked-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/brainstorm\/2026\/0715\/1235212-st-swithin-15-july-summer-weather-40-days-of-rain-sunshine\/javascript:void(0);\" onclick=\"OneTrust.ToggleInfoDisplay()\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Manage Preferences<\/a><\/p>\n<p>From RT\u00c9 Radio 1&#8217;s News At One, Dr Marion McGarry on St Swithin&#8217;s Day weather sayings<\/p>\n<p>Theologians and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.malleusmaleficarum.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">demonologists<\/a> described how witches stir up storms, raise tempests, &#8220;solidify springs of water and melt mountains&#8221;. The link between witchcraft and weather was cemented in the famous book, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.malleusmaleficarum.org\/part-ii-question-i-chapter-xv\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">the Hammer of Witches<\/a> (Malleus Maleficarum).<\/p>\n<p>The idea was repeated in printed pamphlets and news, in sermons, and in the accusations that neighbour made against neighbour. In 1562, storms swept across Europe leaving panic in their wake. In the German town of <a href=\"https:\/\/historycollection.com\/10-little-known-witch-trials-from-history\/3\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Wiesensteig<\/a> more than 60 witches were burned at the stake.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Woodcut of Noah's Ark in the water.\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/file-20210714-15-1o47pib.jpg\"\/><br \/>\nWoodcut of Noah&#8217;s Ark from Anton Koberger&#8217;s German Bible. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Noah%27s_Ark#\/media\/File:Woodcut_of_Noah&#039;s_Ark_from_Anton_Koberger&#039;s_%22German_Bible%22.jpg\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Wikimedia<\/a><\/p>\n<p>In a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bl.uk\/collection-items\/witchcraft-pamphlet-news-from-scotland-1591\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">well-documented and high profile case<\/a> of weather magic in 1589, the Scottish king James VI was caught in a storm in the North Sea, and more than 100 suspected witches were arrested in the area surrounding <a href=\"https:\/\/www.historic-uk.com\/HistoryUK\/HistoryofScotland\/North-Berwick-Witch-Trials\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">North Berwick<\/a>. Many were tortured, found guilty and executed for witchcraft and for treason. So blame witches, your sins or even saints for the weather July 15th brings and the summer that predicts.<\/p>\n<p>Follow RT\u00c9 Brainstorm on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whatsapp.com\/channel\/0029VaJ6ugQ1HsptikZkfS1f\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">WhatsApp<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/rte_brainstorm\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Instagram<\/a> for more stories and updates<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/helen-parish-872488\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Helen Parish<\/a> is a Professor in History at the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-reading-902\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">University of Reading<\/a>. This article was originally published by <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The Conversation<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RT\u00c9<\/p>\n<p>                    <script async src=\"\/\/www.instagram.com\/embed.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Analysis: saints, witches and sin all played a part in how our ancestors predicted the weather By Helen&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":552057,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[42,43,40,38,41,39],"class_list":["post-552056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-headlines","tag-headlines","tag-news","tag-top-news","tag-top-stories","tag-topnews","tag-topstories"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552056","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=552056"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/552056\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/552057"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=552056"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=552056"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=552056"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}