{"id":556221,"date":"2026-07-18T15:39:29","date_gmt":"2026-07-18T15:39:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/556221\/"},"modified":"2026-07-18T15:39:29","modified_gmt":"2026-07-18T15:39:29","slug":"uae-economy-set-for-rebound-in-second-half-of-year-on-exports-recovery-after-opec-exit-says-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/556221\/","title":{"rendered":"UAE economy set for rebound in second half of year on exports recovery after Opec exit, says IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"

The UAE economy<\/a> is set to rebound in the second half of this year despite the regional war, amid an exports recovery following its exit from Opec<\/a>, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday. <\/p>\n

The country has \u201cdemonstrated significant resilience<\/a>\u201d amid the conflict, the IMF’s mission chief to the UAE, Said Bakhache, said following a visit to Dubai this month. <\/p>\n

\u201cSound fundamentals, ample policy buffers, advanced preparedness and a swift policy response have contained the overall impact of the shock,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Timely and well-targeted support measures also helped \u201cpreserve financial stability, safeguard essential supply chains, support affected sectors and households, and sustain market confidence\u201d, he added. <\/p>\n

Uncertainty remains high about the duration and intensity of the continuing conflict, and the on-and-off closure of the Strait of Hormuz is weighing on activity. <\/p>\n

But \u201cassuming a gradual normalisation between the US and Iran, the economy is expected to rebound in the second half of the year as exports recover and Opec+ quotas no longer bind\u201d, the IMF said. <\/p>\n

The UAE left the oil producers group on May 1, ending more than five decades of membership. The Emirates, the world’s seventh-largest oil producer, said its decision was due to a growing mismatch between its rising production capacity and the quotas it was permitted to pump under the group’s framework. <\/p>\n

As part of the Opec+ supergroup, the UAE had been producing close to 30 per cent below its capacity of 4.85 million barrels per day. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

How the UAE managed to keep oil exports moving<\/p>\n

UAE oil exports exceeded prewar levels in June, running 27 per cent above their 12-month average, data from energy intelligence company Kpler found.<\/p>\n

The Emirates shipped 3.94 million bpd of crude and condensate in June, the highest monthly total in the past year, and a sharp reversal<\/a> from March, when the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cut exports to a record low of 2.13 million bpd.<\/p>\n

War impact<\/p>\n

The Iran war, which began on February 28, has weighed heavily on growth, in the Gulf and globally. <\/p>\n

The World Bank in June said the global economy<\/a> is set to expand at its lowest rate this year since the Covid-19 pandemic, with nearly zero growth forecast for Gulf nations.<\/p>\n

The UAE’s economy is projected to expand by 2.4 per cent this year, it said, down 2.6 per cent from its January estimate. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The IMF said on Friday that non-oil sector growth in the UAE has seen a slowdown since heightened uncertainty weighed on tourism, transportation, trade and real estate. <\/p>\n

However, hydrocarbon growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year, as recovering oil exports and the ramp-up in production following the UAE’s exit from Opec \u201cmore than offset conflict-related disruptions\u201d.<\/p>\n

Looking to 2027, overall economic growth is projected to \u201crebound strongly, as hydrocarbon production scales up and non-hydrocarbon activity recovers, supported by normalising tourism and trade flows\u201d, the fund added. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, inflation is also expected to edge up in 2026, due to higher global energy and food prices, before gradually easing over the medium term.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe general government fiscal balance is expected to remain in surplus in 2026, supported by favourable oil revenues and conservative budgeting practices,\u201d Mr Bakhache said. <\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the surplus is projected to narrow, high oil prices, front-loaded dividends, and expenditure-efficiency measures help offset revenue pressures from weaker non-oil activity, even as targeted support to affected sectors and households and planned infrastructure projects continue.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added that strong profitability and improved liquidity have left public and private sectors \u201cwell positioned\u201d to weather the impact of the conflict. <\/p>\n

\u201cAdvancing diversification and continued structural reforms remain key to sustaining growth,\u201d Mr Bakhache said. <\/p>\n

Deeper trade integration, supported by the UAE’s Cepa deals and sustained investment in technology and human capital would \u201creinforce non-oil growth and support resilience to external shocks\u201d, he added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The UAE economy is set to rebound in the second half of this year despite the regional war,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":556222,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[72,7889,113,580,61,60,1284,329,3314],"class_list":["post-556221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-business-team","tag-economy","tag-energy","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-standard","tag-story","tag-uae"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=556221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556221\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/556222"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=556221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=556221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=556221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}