Top economist Nouriel Roubini, who was among the first to predict the 2008 financial crash, earned the nickname \u201cDr. Doom\u201d for his stark warnings, though he has been more upbeat lately.<\/p>\n
And when it comes to artificial intelligence, which has stirred all kinds of apocalyptic predictions, he insists he\u2019s looking at the brighter side.<\/p>\n
In an interview on Bloomberg TV<\/a> on Friday, Roubini was asked about ways to fix Social Security, as the trust fund that helps fund benefits is due to run out of money by 2032.<\/p>\n He replied that a large chunk of the population will be replaced by AI and robots in the next 20-25 years, so raising the retirement age will not be sufficient.<\/p>\n \u201cEventually, we need some form of universal basic income for everybody while they work and once they retire,\u201d Roubini added. \u201cWe\u2019re already on the way.\u201d<\/p>\n With AI poised to disrupt the labor market, top tech leaders like OpenAI CEO Sam Altman have suggested governments might provide a guaranteed amount of money to people, though he has since backed away from the idea<\/a>. <\/p>\n Still, the idea persists, and the U.K.\u2019s minister for investment said early this year that the government is weighing the introduction of a universal basic income<\/a> as a means to support workers in industries where AI threatens to displace them.\u00a0<\/p>\n In Roubini\u2019s view, the AI revolution is the most important in human history in terms of tech innovation, and it will develop into artificial general intelligence, meaning AI will match or exceed human cognitive capabilities.<\/p>\n That will unlock massive economic growth, he said, with GDP accelerating from 2%-4% by the end of the decade to 6% by 2040 and 10% by 2050. At that point, the government can tax the \u201cwinners\u201d and redistribute the money to everyone else.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019ll have either ex-post distribution\u2014that is universal basic income\u2014or we\u2019ll have it ex-ante. Ex-ante means some form of socialism,\u201d Roubini explained. \u201cEssentially, the government is going to take over some fraction of the big tech firms.\u201d<\/p>\n He said AI companies are already willing to hand over stakes to the government, alluding to a Financial Times report<\/a> that said OpenAI has discussed giving 5% as a way for the public to share in the upside of AI.<\/p>\n Altman\u2019s proposal would entail other AI companies providing similar stakes, although it\u2019s not clear if his U.S. rivals would be willing to do so.<\/p>\n As a result, Roubini believes universal basic income or socialism is inevitable, saying \u201cWe\u2019re going already in that direction, effectively.\u201d<\/p>\n When pressed on his forecast, he denied that it\u2019s gloomy. On the contrary, he called it optimistic, given that it assumes 10% growth and \u201cmachines doing all the work.\u201d<\/p>\n That vision echoes what SpaceX and Tesla<\/a> CEO Elon Musk has laid out. He thinks that in less than 20, AI and robotics will advance to the point where working becomes optional<\/a>.<\/p>\n