{"id":564098,"date":"2026-07-23T10:45:11","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T10:45:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/564098\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T10:45:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T10:45:11","slug":"australian-dollar-jobs-strength-keeps-rba-hike-priced-bbh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/564098\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Dollar: Jobs strength keeps RBA hike priced \u2013 BBH"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Brown Brothers Harriman\u2019s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/currencies\/audusd\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">AUD\/USD<\/a> is consolidating near 0.7000 after strong Australia employment data. Solid June job gains keep Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hike expectations alive, with cash rate futures now virtually fully pricing a move to 4.60% by year\u2011end. Haddad, however, sees risks skewed toward a more extended RBA pause, posing a headwind for the Australian Dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Strong jobs but policy pause risk<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;AUD\/USD is consolidating around 0.7000. Australia\u2019s solid June labor force survey will keep RBA rate hike bets live. The economy added more jobs than anticipated in June (actual+76.3k, consensus: +15.0k, May: +44.0k), with full-time employment up +29.3k and part-time employment up +47.0k.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In line with consensus, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4% for a second straight month, leaving it marginally above the RBA\u2019s 4.2% projection. But that\u2019s largely because more people entered the labor force as the participation rate rose +0.3ppt to near a one year high at 67.0%.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;RBA cash rate futures virtually fully price in a 25bps hike to 4.60% by year end, up from roughly 60% before the data. In our view, the risk is skewed towards a more extended pause in the RBA tightening cycle which is a headwind for AUD.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;First, the RBA projects real <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/economic-calendar\" data-fxs-autoanchor=\"\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">GDP<\/a> growth to be below potential over the next two years. Second, the RBA cash rate at 4.35% currently sits near the top of the range of model-based central estimates of the nominal neutral rate.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fxstreet.com\/info\/how-fxstreet-uses-ai?utm_medium=internal&amp;utm_source=ai-disclaimer\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Know more.<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Brown Brothers Harriman\u2019s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes AUD\/USD is consolidating near 0.7000 after strong Australia employment data. Solid&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":270497,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[72,113,61,60],"class_list":["post-564098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-economy","tag-ie","tag-ireland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=564098"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564098\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/270497"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=564098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=564098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=564098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}