{"id":564688,"date":"2026-07-23T18:48:12","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T18:48:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/564688\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T18:48:12","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T18:48:12","slug":"henry-dimbleby-on-how-to-grow-as-appetites-shrink-analysis-features","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/564688\/","title":{"rendered":"Henry Dimbleby on how to grow as appetites shrink | Analysis & Features"},"content":{"rendered":"

Five years ago his National Food Strategy report called for government<\/a> intervention and a swathe of \u201csin taxes\u201d to regulate an industry that had grown rich by feeding consumers\u2019 primeval desire for calories.<\/p>\n

In a world where food had historically been scarce, argued then health<\/a> tsar Henry Dimbleby<\/a>, minds were hard-wired to \u201cpounce\u201d on sources of fat, sugar<\/a> and salt \u2013 and the UK\u2019s food industry was providing too much opportunity.<\/p>\n

But a major report by Dimbleby\u2019s new venture Bramble Intelligence now warns that far from getting fat on the profits of HFSS<\/a> sales, the food industry faces \u201cbarbarians at the door\u201d for profits.<\/p>\n

\"SINGLE<\/p>\n

It predicts UK consumers will consume 5% fewer calories by 2035 and food companies will lose up to \u00a36bn in sales unless they adapt.<\/p>\n

So why has he had such a seemingly drastic change of heart? And what kinds of companies will thrive in the age of weight-loss drugs, AI<\/a> and diet-related diagnostic technology<\/a>?<\/p>\n

10 UK&I food brands on the Bramble 40 list
\n
\nBetter Nature: \u201cHas shown a whole-bean fermented protein can win mainstream listings.\u201d
\nBio&Me: \u201cBuilt a multicategory breakfast range around the benefits of gut health.\u201d
\nBold Bean Co: \u201cUsed community and recipe content to create new demand for beans.\u201d
\nCitizens of Soil: \u201cIts single-origin extra-virgin olive oils come from regenerative farms around the Mediterranean, with producers paid above market rate.\u201d
\nFrive: \u201cConvenience does not have to compromise quality. Frive has proven consumer demand for a better ready meal.\u201d
\nNatoora: \u201cSources fruit & vegetables from a direct network of more than 600 independent growers, selecting varieties for flavour and quality.\u201d
\nPack\u2019d: \u201cHas won mainstream listings for a no-planning, no-waste frozen format\u201d of fruit & vegetables.
\nPip & Nut: \u201cHas taken a cleaner nut butter to the top of a mainstream category.\u201d
\nStocked: \u201cChef-cooked dishes frozen into small blocks you portion to your appetite and household size, with no additives.\u201d
\nYeo Valley: \u201cBritain\u2019s biggest organic brand is taking natural protein mainstream across dairy, from high-protein yoghurt to kefir and milk.\u201d <\/p>\n

Source: The Bramble Intelligence 40<\/p>\n

Dimbleby tells The Grocer the launch of Bramble Intelligence, in January 2024, was widely misunderstood. \u201cEveryone thought Bramble was a think tank or a campaigning organisation,\u201d he says. \u201cIt probably took a year for us to get the message across that we are completely focused on the commercial \u2013 I\u2019m leaving the government to get on with it.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are trying to help companies navigate challenges. Now, unlike back then, you can make money out of doing healthy.\u201d<\/p>\n

The first of two companion reports by the company, titled Tomorrow\u2019s Appetites, argues that consumers have a newfound ability to break free of the established cycle. This, the report says, is the biggest revolution in food since the rise of supermarkets<\/a> in the 1970s.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

Weight-loss drugs<\/p>\n

Weight-loss drugs and the use of AI and technology-driven personalised diet apps are, Dimbleby and his fellow Bramble Intelligence experts argue, \u201cforces of disruption\u201d greater than government regulation<\/a> could achieve.<\/p>\n

\u201cDiscretionary, high-margin, promotion-heavy categories like snacks<\/a> and alcohol<\/a>\u201d could see a third of operating profits wiped out in 10 years, the report says.<\/p>\n

Dimbleby adds: \u201cIn the food strategy I talked about an interaction that was going wrong. I said that it wasn\u2019t necessarily because food companies were bad, it was because it was difficult to make money doing the good stuff. But what we\u2019re seeing now is the unravelling of millions of years of evolution.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report says companies that built their businesses on cravings for salt, sugar and fat are being challenged by technologies that did not exist when the food strategy came out.<\/p>\n

\"Pill<\/p>\n

Five years ago, appetite-suppressing drugs were confined to diabetes treatment with \u201climited public awareness\u201d, while diet related diagnostics were lab-based and costly. Consumer AI apps were also unavailable.<\/p>\n

Today, weight-loss drugs are a frontline weapon for the government and NHS, and 3.2 million UK adults have used them, a number only set to rise after the pill form of WeGovy<\/a> received UK regulatory<\/a> approval in June.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, ChatGPT has 230 million global users, including 30 million a month in the UK.<\/p>\n

Continuous glucose monitors, metabolic breath tests and other diagnostics are sold to consumers for under \u00a3100 a month.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe only shift in the food market we\u2019ve seen before that was this big was in the \u201970s with the rise of the supermarkets, but that was the food industry disrupting itself,\u201d says Dimbleby. \u201cThis time it\u2019s from outside.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the Tomorrow\u2019s Appetites report argues there are \u201copportunities as well as threats\u201d.<\/p>\n

It sets out four new sources of profitable growth, available to companies that make it easy to eat well, make food that nourishes, have ingredients that the public trust, and can find a place in the new \u201cdiet and health feedback loop\u201d.<\/p>\n

The second report, the Bramble Intelligence 40, picks out companies that are doing this in the UK and abroad.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is a showcase of companies, from early-stage innovators to giants such as Google, moving to capture the biggest shift of profits in food for half a century,\u201d says Bramble managing partner Chris Mitchell.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve chosen companies bringing fresh ideas to these new sources of growth, varied in size, scope and model.\u201d Not all are \u201cguaranteed to succeed\u201d but each has \u201crising revenue, growing users or a large installed base\u201d.<\/p>\n

The list does not seek to be comprehensive. \u201cWe\u2019re trying to showcase both what is the value proposition to the industry and what other companies can learn from these examples,\u201d says Mitchell. \u201cWe\u2019re pointing towards where the momentum is and where profit is going to be achieved as consumer behaviour and discounter<\/a> preferences undergo this enormous shift.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Henry<\/p>\n

The fate of the tobacco<\/a> industry is, Mitchell says, an example of what can happen when there is a huge consumer shift away from established trends<\/a>, only this time it will be faster.<\/p>\n

\u201cSmoking was a 60-year decline at about 3% per year. I think we\u2019re going to see this transition but it\u2019s going to be faster. With examples like that you didn\u2019t have anything like these appetite-suppressing drugs which could change behaviour. It\u2019s an accelerant.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dimbleby believes there doesn\u2019t have to be an unhappy ending for the food industry.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat this means is that people are valuing food in a different way. They are literally spending more time thinking about what they buy, looking at labels<\/a>, and in the end food is going to be seen as one of the ways of achieving healthy life years, the scarcest resource any of us have.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think what we could see is the amount of money households spend on food increasing.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s slightly counter-intuitive but while our calculation is there will be 5% fewer calories, that doesn\u2019t mean less money.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou might see an increase in the next five or 10 years.\u201d<\/p>\n

Not all Dimbleby\u2019s ideas find universal support, but a 10-year plan for growth sounds like something many in the food industry could get behind.<\/p>\n

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