So the Aug. 4 numbers aren’t just a debut. They’re the evidence that will greet the market’s first real wave of potential sellers. Here’s what has to show up in them for the stock to stabilize — three things, in order of importance. <\/p>\n
The revenue<\/a> story is the reason the bulls are still here. SpaceX generated $19.3 billion in trailing-12-month revenue through March, after 2025 revenue grew 33% — remarkable growth for an industrial company of this size. <\/p>\n Starlink does the heavy lifting. The connectivity segment produced $11.4 billion of revenue in 2025, about 61% of the 2025 total, and grew roughly 50% year over year, with segment operating income up 120%. The space segment contributed about $4.1 billion, and the AI (artificial intelligence) segment built on the absorbed xAI business added $3.2 billion. Starlink also ended March with 10.3 million subscribers, up from 8.9 million at the end of 2025. <\/p>\n A first report that shows Starlink still compounding at anything near that rate keeps the growth story intact. A visible slowdown there, and the 33% headline number starts to look like history rather than trajectory. <\/p>\n 2. Losses that look like investment, not decay <\/p>\n SpaceX<\/a> loses money. The company posted a $2.6 billion operating loss in 2025 and a $1.9 billion operating loss in the first quarter of 2026 alone. <\/p>\n But the composition matters more than the headline. SpaceX poured about $3 billion into Starship research and development in 2025, and another $930 million in the first quarter of 2026. For a company valued in the trillions, the direction of those losses matters more than their size. And beneath the losses sits real cash generation: adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) came in at a positive $6.6 billion in 2025 and $1.1 billion in the first quarter. <\/p>\n Story Continues <\/p>\n That’s the shape of a company funding an enormous development program from a profitable core, not a business that can’t cover its own costs. What the report has to show is that this shape is holding: losses growing no faster than the investments explain, and the Starlink profit engine still running underneath. <\/p>\n 3. A reason for the unlocked shares to wait <\/p>\n The third requirement is less about the quarter than about the audience. Two trading days after the report, the first 20% tranche of eligible shares comes out of lockup, with further blocks scheduled to follow through the end of the year. <\/p>\n Every one of those newly free shareholders will be deciding whether to hold or to sell a stock that sits below its IPO price. Management’s job on Aug. 4 is to give them a reason to wait — a first-ever forward outlook, disclosure on where Starship spending peaks, or detail on how the AI segment makes money. Silence on those fronts, with that much new supply arriving, could be expensive. <\/p>\n What I’d do before Aug. 4 <\/p>\n I’m doing nothing before the numbers. At about $1.5 trillion in market value, SpaceX trades near 80 times its trailing sales — a valuation that leaves no room for a disappointing debut, even 48% below the high. <\/p>\n But I’m not interested in betting against a business growing 33% with a profitable satellite franchise inside it, either. <\/p>\n Should you buy stock in Space Exploration Technologies right now? <\/p>\n Before you buy stock in\u00a0Space Exploration Technologies, consider this: <\/p>\n The Motley Fool\u00a0Stock Advisor\u00a0analyst team just identified what they believe are the\u00a010 best stocks<\/a>\u00a0for investors to buy now\u2026 and\u00a0Space Exploration Technologies\u00a0wasn’t one of them.\u00a0The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years. <\/p>\n Consider when\u00a0Netflix\u00a0made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation,\u00a0you’d have $379,662!*\u00a0Or\u00a0when\u00a0Nvidia\u00a0made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation,\u00a0you’d have $1,206,116!* <\/p>\n That performance is why people listen. With a track record of\u00a0beating the S&P 500 by 4x,\u00a0Stock Advisor\u00a0offers a distinct advantage. Don’t miss the latest top 10 list, available with\u00a0Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built for the long haul. <\/p>\n See the 10 stocks \u00bb<\/a> <\/p>\n *Stock Advisor returns as of July 28, 2026. <\/p>\n Daniel Sparks<\/a> and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy<\/a>. <\/p>\n<\/a> Image source: The Motley Fool. 1. Growth that holds its pace <\/p>\n