Members of the Timeform racing teams nominate their idea of the winner of the 2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.<\/p>\n
DARYZ – John Ingles<\/p>\n
On Timeform figures it looks a much more open race than the betting implies which suggests the value lies outside the two fillies vying for favouritism. Last year\u2019s runner-up Aventure and Minnie Hauk both need respecting of course, with the likelihood of further improvement to come from the Oaks winner, though at much longer odds we probably haven\u2019t seen the best of Daryz yet either. His performance in the Juddmonte International was a rare blip in his own career and in the fantastic season of his trainer Francis-Henri Graffard who has been firing in Group 1 winners all year. Daryz ran a fine trial and resumed his progress when going down narrowly to Japanese Derby winner Croix du Nord in the Prix du Prince d\u2019Orange last time, finishing off really well once he\u2019d been switched from behind a wall of horses in the straight. Daryz is an unusual Arc runner in that he hasn\u2019t run over a mile and a half yet, but far from that being off-putting, the longer trip will surely suit as a son of Arc winner Sea The Stars and the very smart filly Daryakana who was an Arc weekend winner too in the Prix de Royallieu.<\/p>\n
DARYZ – Andrew Asquith<\/p>\n
At the prices, I\u2019m finding it hard to pick holes in the claims of Daryz. The Juddmonte was an odd race with the blazing pacemaker hanging on for third, so if you don\u2019t judge him too harshly on that, his record otherwise is one of a most progressive three-year-old. He was beaten a short head by Croix du Nord in the Prix du Prince d’Orange, but that was an excellent effort given he had to wait for a run and then stayed on powerfully all the way to the line, only just failing to get his head in front. Along with his run style, his pedigree also strongly points to him being even better over a mile and a half, being a half brother to several above-average performers at the trip, while his dam was bordering on very smart and stayed even further. Add Sea The Stars into the mix and you have a horse who is very much bred to excel over a mile and a half and I\u2019m of the opinion he could well improve another chunk on his first try at it. <\/p>\n
ALOHI AALI – Graeme North<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve had a strong feeling for several weeks now that the Arc ante-post market is just plain wrong and I\u2019m more than content to be with the horse I backed several weeks ago and whose chance continues to look much better than the betting suggests \u2013 Japanese raider Alohi Aali (the other I backed, Jan Brueghel, got taken out earlier this week). There\u2019s little solid evidence for me that last year\u2019s second Aventure and fourth Sosie are any better than they were a year ago yet close up in fifth that day despite being badly hampered at the start was Sevenna\u2019s Knight, a decent enough colt but a two-miler all the same and winless in six races since, half of them in Group 3 company. That suggests to me that this year\u2019s Arc is ripe for the plucking, and any of the Japanese trio, all of them Arc trial winners, fit the bill. The draw hasn\u2019t been kind to Byzantine Dream or Croix Du Nord, but it was the ease with which Alohi Aali left subsequent Prix Foy winner and French Derby second Cualificar for dead at Deauville on fast ground that convinced me, along with the evidence of the formidable talent he showed in spite of two questionable rides in Japan in his previous two races, that he has what it takes to win the Arc. Christophe Lemaire, who was on board at Deauville but wasn\u2019t in those two races in Japan, is on board thankfully and stall 4 looks perfect. Connections are reportedly enthused about the prospect of soft conditions should they arise, so it\u2019s hard to see a negative, and he can give Japan a long-awaited first success. <\/p>\n
GIAVELLOTTO – Tony McFadden<\/p>\n
For the optimists, this is a competitive edition of the Arc. For the pessimists, it’s a below-par renewal. Either way, nothing heads into the race with outstanding claims on the formbook as the first ten on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings are separated by only 6 lb. Given this probably won’t take as much winning as a usual Arc, Giavellotto looks overpriced at as big as 40\/1. He’s been largely campaigned as a stayer but proved better than ever over a mile and a half last season, notably winning the Hong Kong Vase. That form puts him in the mix by Timeform’s reckoning – he’s 3 lb behind top-rated Minnie Hauk on adjusted ratings – and he arrives here on the back of a comprehensive defeat of Kalpana at Kempton last time. <\/p>\n
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