{"id":593042,"date":"2026-08-14T13:10:09","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T13:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/593042\/"},"modified":"2026-08-14T13:10:09","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T13:10:09","slug":"el-nino-may-peak-at-the-worst-time-for-the-amazon-and-it-should-worry-us-all-amazon-rainforest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/593042\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o may peak at the worst time for the Amazon \u2013 and it should worry us all | Amazon rainforest"},"content":{"rendered":"

As a supercharged climate scorches Europe with wildfire<\/a> and deluges Asia with floods<\/a>, the Amazon is bracing for a drought that strikes fear into the hearts of forest defenders and food producers alike. But it should worry even more of us.<\/p>\n

Scientists are predicting that the peak<\/a> of El Ni\u00f1o will occur at the worst possible time for the world\u2019s biggest tropical rainforest: the end of the dry season between October and December, when rivers are at their lowest and undergrowth is most likely to be tinder dry. This will be a period of extreme vulnerability for the forest, which plays a globally important role in stabilising the climate and irrigating crops.<\/p>\n

The planet\u2019s life-support system is already reeling from a double whammy. Human-driven climate disruption, caused by burning fossil fuels and trees, is relentlessly heating the world and amplifying extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and storms. On top of this long-term trend is the latest El Ni\u00f1o, a naturally occurring phenomenon of high Pacific Ocean temperatures that leads to warming \u2013 and drought and fire \u2013 for much of the rest of the world.<\/p>\n

Firefighters battling a major wildfire burning through a pine forest in the Gironde department of France in July. Photograph: Le Gonidec Margot\/Abaca\/Shutterstock<\/p>\n

Scientists say this El Ni\u00f1o is on course to be the strongest in 150 years by a \u201cmind-blowing margin.\u201d<\/a> Even in its incipient phase, it is wreaking havoc havoc across the planet.<\/p>\n

Western Europe has endured the hottest June and July in history, with exceptionally low rainfall, sparking extreme wildfires in France, Greece and other Mediterranean countries and water shortages in the Seine, Rhine and Danube basins. Three-quarters of England is in drought<\/a> and baked by what is forecast to be the hottest UK summer<\/a> on record.<\/p>\n

Forecast maximum temperatures for 13 August 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

In Asia, South Korea and Japan are sweltering in a record heatwave<\/a>, while China has been battered by Typhoon Dolphin<\/a>, which has turned Shanghai\u2019s streets into rivers, torn roofs from houses and forced the evacuation of more than 1 million people. Floods have killed more than 100 people in India\u2019s Assam state<\/a>, with more rain forecast.<\/p>\n

Flooding in Wenzhou, in China\u2019s Zhejiang province, after Typhoon Dolphin made landfall on Sunday. Photograph: VCG\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Swathes of the world are burning. In Canada, \u201cout of control\u201d wildfires<\/a> have forced tens of thousands to flee British Colombia and darkened the skies of distant New York. Huge fires are also raging on Java Island in Indonesia and Utah in the US, which has also been scorched by a record July heatwave<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In Africa, the UN is predicting a severe hit to food production. In the Middle East, local temperature records are being broken almost every day, with the United Arab Emirates registering 51.2C in Al Dhafra.<\/p>\n

A line graphic show daily global sea temperatures between 1991 and 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures<\/a> are trending far outside previous parameters, threatening coral reefs and other marine life. Because the oceans are the world\u2019s main heat absorber<\/a>, their temperatures are a prelude to what follows on land.<\/p>\n

But among the greatest concerns about what comes next is the Amazon, which is essential for maintaining biodiversity and ensuring rainfall for food-producing regions across South America.<\/p>\n

The Curu\u00e1 River, an Amazon tributary, flows through Caxiuan\u00e3 national forest in Brazil. Photograph: Jorge S\u00e1enz\/AP<\/p>\n

A few decades ago, the idea of drought in the rainforest would have seemed outlandish. The Amazon is the world\u2019s biggest river and its principal tributaries \u2013 the Xingu, Negro, Tapaj\u00f3s, Madeira, Purus, Juru\u00e1 and Japur\u00e1 \u2013are among the planet\u2019s main sources of freshwater. The forest around them has always been famed for humidity, with giant trees that sucked up moisture and pumped it into the atmosphere, generating \u201cflying rivers\u201d that cooled and watered an entire continent. The trillions of trees and plants in the Amazon also draw down huge quantities of carbon dioxide with benefits to the entire planet. Any weakening of this function<\/a> adds to the risks of instability, food insecurity and extreme weather.<\/p>\n

Now, the Brazilian meteorological agency has released a forecast<\/a> that the unusually strong El Ni\u00f1o will delay the onset of the Amazonian rainy season, raise temperatures, deplete rivers and intensify fire risks.<\/p>\n

A line graph showing average daily temperatures from January to December for 1979 through to 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

As in many other parts of the planet, this creates an emergency within an emergency: the onset of a natural but extremely powerful \u201cGodzilla\u201d El Ni\u00f1o that could last well into the new year, on top of human-driven warming.<\/p>\n

Scientists and Indigenous residents say the Amazon is struggling to recover<\/a> from the devastation caused during the last El Ni\u00f1o in 2023-24, which left some of the world\u2019s greatest rivers at record-low levels, sparked unprecedented fire outbreaks<\/a> and caused mass deaths of dolphins<\/a> and fish.<\/p>\n

With a third of the Amazon now degraded by farming, mining and human-caused climate disruption, the trees and undergrowth are more flammable and vulnerable to \u201cmegafires,\u201d<\/a> raising concerns that many parts may tip beyond the point of no return<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Houses and boats stranded along a dried-up Negro River, a major Amazon tributary, in Brazil\u2019s Amazonas state in October 2023. Photograph: Michael Dantas\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

The government is trying to address this with satellite monitoring, enforcement operations and greater investment in firefighting capacity<\/a>. This produced positive results last year, when the burned areas of the Amazon fell to their lowest level<\/a> since records began in 1985.<\/p>\n

But one year is not long enough for the forest to recover, and it now faces a far greater threat.<\/p>\n

Three previous El Nin\u00f5s (1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24) proved disastrous for the Amazon. Prof Jos Barlow, an Amazon specialist at the Lancaster Environment Centre, said the prospect of a still stronger phenomenon was deeply worrying: \u201cIt is hard to imagine the outcome of even more severe droughts and heat.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Amazon fire season has already started but the peak is still a couple of months away.<\/p>\n

Indigenous communities are setting up their own firefighting units to cope with outbreaks in deeper parts of the forest. Dr Erika Berenguer, a forest expert at Oxford University and author of a book on how to deal with rainforest fires, said: \u201cIt\u2019s crazy. The humid forest should not be burning.\u201d<\/p>\n

A major part of the problem, Berenguer said, was multiple El Ni\u00f1os hitting in a relatively short space of time: \u201cIt\u2019s similar to if you are already sick and then you get an infection. That infection is going to have much greater impacts on your body because your immune system is already compromised fighting the sickness.\u201d<\/p>\n

Fields and rainforest burning uncontrollably in the Amazon in October 2023. Photograph: NurPhoto\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

The brutal conditions are likely to drag on \u2013 and possibly intensify \u2013 in 2027 because there is a lag of about three months<\/a> between the peak of El Ni\u00f1o warming in the Pacific Ocean and temperature rises elsewhere in the world.<\/p>\n

Carlos Nobre, a professor at the University of S\u00e3o Paulo and one of Brazil\u2019s leading climate scientists, said: \u201cThe Amazon has to be very prepared from now through the beginning of 2027, at least up to March, because this El Ni\u00f1o is very likely to induce a severe drought.\u201d<\/p>\n

Farmers are bracing for a turbulent year. \u201cFellow ranchers, GET READY FOR EL NI\u00d1O,\u201d reads a post on a popular WhatsApp group for beef producers in the Amazonian state of Par\u00e1. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o will impact Brazilian cattle farming by causing heat stress in animals, reducing pasture quality, and leading to \u2018water scarcity\u2019. This drives up supplementation costs and can reduce weight gain and milk production.\u201d<\/p>\n

Other agricultural businesses post apocalyptic images of parched soil or flooded cities (the south of Brazil is forecast to get much more rain). \u201cThe 2026 Super El Ni\u00f1o has evolved from a mere weather phenomenon into a symbol for a new era of global instability,\u201d warns one post.<\/p>\n

The industry magazine Agroforte<\/a> reports that Brazil\u2019s soya bean harvests have fallen during previous strong El Ni\u00f1o years, but omits any mention of the human causes for the more hostile climate: deforestation \u2013 usually by farmers \u2013 and the burning of fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

A soya harvest at a farm near Senador Guiomard, Acre state, Brazil. Photograph: Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Indigenous groups, in contrast, tend to preserve the forest and help to maintain a stable climate \u2013 but they, too, face the triple threats of a global heating, forest clearance and El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

The government has warned that traditional lands will face increased fire risks, and has stockpiled food in case of shortages. During the previous El Ni\u00f1o, some forest communities in the Xingu and Tapaj\u00f3s basins were left isolated, thirsty and worried about hunger when rivers \u2013 the main transportation route \u2013 ran dry and vegetable gardens shrivelled up. Anything worse next year and Brazil could face the apocalyptic scenario of drought refugees in a rainforest.<\/p>\n

That this is even a possibility should alarm the world. A severely weakened Amazon will further disrupt the climate and agricultural production at a time when farmers across many parts of the world are already saying that changes are too quick<\/a> for them to adapt. Global food prices are at a three-year high as falling harvests combine with the fuel inflation caused by the US-Israeli attack on Iran. The UN is predicting that 49 million more people are likely to face acute hunger<\/a> because of El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Much more needs to be done to protect biomes such as the Amazon, on which the world depends. Investing more in firefighters is a necessary short-term step, but it only deals with the consequences rather than the local and global causes. Unless deforestation is halted and fossils fuels are phased out, the atmosphere will continue to warm and amplify extreme weather. Even this year\u2019s Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o will seem like a pussycat compared with what is coming.<\/p>\n