{"id":594049,"date":"2026-08-15T12:34:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-15T12:34:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/594049\/"},"modified":"2026-08-15T12:34:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-15T12:34:14","slug":"talk-of-a-3tn-anthropic-valuation-shows-how-markets-are-changing-the-irish-times","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/594049\/","title":{"rendered":"Talk of a $3tn Anthropic valuation shows how markets are changing \u2013 The Irish Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

Two months is a long time in today\u2019s market. For Anthropic<\/a>, it has been enough time for $1 trillion (\u20ac860 billion) to become $2 trillion, and perhaps even $3 trillion.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe AI bubble question: is Anthropic justified at $1tn?\u201d was the title of a Stocktake column<\/a> in mid-June. The question now seems quaint, given the Financial Times is reporting that investors now expect a valuation of $2 trillion or more in an October initial public offering.<\/p>\n

Anthropic\u2019s revenues are certainly soaring, with the FT reporting that investors expect its revenue run-rate \u2013 extrapolating recent sales over a full year \u2013 to reach $100 billion-$120 billion by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n

In June, Stocktake cited economist Noah Smith\u2019s argument that $1 trillion did not look excessive. Then, Anthropic\u2019s annualised revenue had risen from $5 billion the previous September to $47 billion, so $1 trillion implied a valuation of about 20 times sales. <\/p>\n

That was defensible, Smith suggested, for a firm boasting \u201cmore impressive revenue growth than any company in history\u201d.<\/p>\n

Perhaps a $2 trillion-$3 trillion valuation could be defended on that basis. If annualised revenue hits $100 billion, it would mean about 20 times sales at $2 trillion and 30 times at $3 trillion (and less if revenue reaches $120 billion).<\/p>\n

Certainly, one bull quoted by the FT sees little reason for restraint. At the \u201cincredibly low end\u201d, they argue, Anthropic\u2019s huge annual growth would justify 30 times revenue, implying a $3 trillion valuation. That is, $3 trillion isn\u2019t just defensible, it\u2019s cheap.<\/p>\n

You don\u2019t have to be a dyed-in-the-wool value investor to feel uneasy about this train of thought. Not long ago, a stock trading at 30 times earnings was considered expensive, but now 30 times sales is discussed almost casually.<\/p>\n

The words \u201cprofit\u201d, \u201cearnings\u201d and \u201ccash flow\u201d don\u2019t appear once in the FT report \u2013 the discussion is almost entirely about revenue.<\/p>\n

Of course, revenue is not profit. Anthropic\u2019s revenue growth is indeed extraordinary, but it is striking how little attention is being paid to the question of how much of that revenue will eventually become sustainable profit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Two months is a long time in today\u2019s market. For Anthropic, it has been enough time for $1…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":498453,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3673,72,61,60],"class_list":["post-594049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-anthropic","tag-business","tag-ie","tag-ireland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=594049"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594049\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/498453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=594049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=594049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=594049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}