{"id":604276,"date":"2026-08-25T15:56:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-25T15:56:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/604276\/"},"modified":"2026-08-25T15:56:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-25T15:56:11","slug":"this-state-is-likely-to-get-the-worst-of-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/604276\/","title":{"rendered":"This state is likely to get the worst of El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n In February 1998, almost a year\u2019s worth of rain fell in downtown Los Angeles, as a series of powerful Pacific storms rocked California amid a \u201cSuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o. Deadly landslides struck Southern and Central California, wiping out hillside homes, and powerful waves pounded the state\u2019s shoreline. These waves destroyed a large section of the famous Santa Monica Pier and caused widespread coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay communities.\n <\/p>\n

\n Many Californians who experienced that event still consider it to be the benchmark for how a Super El Ni\u00f1o can alter life in their state. Now, with another Super El Ni\u00f1o setting in \u2014 this time likely to be the strongest on record<\/a> \u2014 many are calibrating their expectations based on what happened then.\n <\/p>\n

\n However, El Ni\u00f1os of the past are not necessarily an accurate guide to El Ni\u00f1os of the future, experts say. The 2015-2016 Super El Ni\u00f1o, for example, didn\u2019t drop near as much rain on California as its predecessor. And this current El Ni\u00f1o is especially a wildcard given the simultaneous influence of global warming due to climate pollution, which could worsen some of El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impacts.\n <\/p>\n

\n \ud83c\udf27\ufe0f Follow the CNN Weather app for updates on El Ni\u00f1o<\/a>\n <\/p>\n

\n It is clear, though, that California is again likely to be an epicenter for this historically intense El Ni\u00f1o in the US. Strong El Ni\u00f1o events, such as the one revving up in the tropical Pacific, have rarely spared the Golden State from significant and damaging consequences.\n <\/p>\n

\"Motorists<\/p>\n

\n This time, the state is likely to experience hazards ranging from widespread coastal flooding to heavy rain at lower elevations and mountain snows. Towering waves generated by intense Pacific storm systems, their heights amplified by El Ni\u00f1o, could erode parts of the fragile coastline and shut down crucial coastal transportation arteries.\n <\/p>\n

\n California stands to experience its highest tide levels on record when this event peaks during the late fall through the winter. Extensive coastal flooding is almost guaranteed, scientists say.\n <\/p>\n

\n These El Ni\u00f1o-related hazards are baked into the forecast regardless of where any intense Pacific storms eventually track, since El Ni\u00f1o increases coastal water levels on top of already rising sea levels from climate change.\n <\/p>\n

\n This increase happens for two reasons \u2014 both tied to the fact that El Ni\u00f1o is characterized by warmer than average ocean temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean.\n <\/p>\n

\u26c5 Get CNN Weather in your inbox<\/p>\n

The forecast is just the beginning. We\u2019ll\u202fsend you expert coverage and the stories behind the weather \u2014 so you always know more than just the number. Sign up for the newsletter<\/a><\/p>\n

\n First, those El Ni\u00f1o-warmed ocean waters expand to take up more room. Second, the waves instrumental in forming El Ni\u00f1o in the Pacific take a turn to the north when they reach the South American coast.\n <\/p>\n

\n Called \u201cKelvin waves\u201d, these waves don\u2019t crash and break. Instead, they\u2019re massive, slow-moving and slosh up and down, like water in a bathtub<\/a>. In the western Pacific, they\u2019re the force that moves vast quantities of hot water eastward along the equator, helping to create El Ni\u00f1o. But once they hit land in South America, Kelvin waves can become coastally trapped, moving north and south, parallel to the coast \u2014 raising sea levels by six inches to one foot as they go.\n <\/p>\n

\n Satellite imagery has already spied an area of rising seas expanding north from South and Central America to California\u2019s Baja Peninsula, with a northward expansion expected from there.\n <\/p>\n

\n To make matters worse, this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o comes at the peak of an 18-year high-tide cycle \u2014 a natural, astronomical event that will make King Tides even higher than they otherwise would be, according to Patrick Barnard, research director at the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at the University of California, Santa Cruz.\n <\/p>\n

\n And then there\u2019s just the regular kind of waves, formed by storms. Barnard said studies have shown that Pacific storms generate about 30% more wave energy during an El Ni\u00f1o year compared to a year without the climate cycle. Some past Super El Ni\u00f1o years, like the 2015-to-2016 event, showed even higher increases in wave energy of up to 50%, he said.\n <\/p>\n

\n According to Barnard, the expected increase in coastal water levels during this El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 from six inches to a foot \u2014 would threaten an additional 170,000 people and an additional $60 billion in property, compared to a non-Super El Ni\u00f1o year.\n <\/p>\n

\n Barnard and other experts emphasized the certainty of the coastal impacts, compared to the less predictable precipitation aspects of Super El Ni\u00f1o events in California.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cWe do know we\u2019re going to have these coastal hazards,\u201d Barnard said.\n <\/p>\n

\n Less of a sure bet is where exactly the Pacific storm track will set up, since some El Ni\u00f1o events have hammered Northern California with heavy precipitation, while others have either fizzled on the rain front or taken aim at Southern California.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cTypically, we think of El Ni\u00f1o driving wetter than normal conditions for much of the American Southwest and drier than normal conditions for the Pacific Northwest, and that signal is pretty robust for the largest events,\u201d said Dillon Amaya, a meteorologist at North Carolina State University. \u201cBut it\u2019s not a perfect, one-to-one correlation,\u201d he cautioned.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe dice are definitely loaded in terms of rainfall. Where that happens is hard to predict,\u201d Barnard said.\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s less likely that heavy rains and mountain snows will be a no-show this winter, as studies have found that strong El Ni\u00f1os are correlated with heavier-than-average precipitation across the state. The El Ni\u00f1o-connected storms could combine with the higher-than-average storm-connected waves to manifest hazards such as flooding, mudslides and landslides.\n <\/p>\n

\"Red<\/p>\n

\n Past Super El Ni\u00f1o events, such as the one from spring 1997 to spring 1998, have not been kind to California. In the San Francisco Bay area, more than 200% of average rainfall fell during the wet season from supercharged storms, and Central California overall also saw near record rain during that same Super El Ni\u00f1o. There were deaths caused by flooding and mudslides, as well as that coastal damage from higher water levels and wind-driven waves.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThat event really informs our expectations, both in the scientific community and in the public, for what any given El Ni\u00f1o might produce because of how impactful that particular event was,\u201d Amaya said.\n <\/p>\n

\n It is possible that the global warming that has taken place since the 1997-to-1998 event, or even since the 2015-to-2016 Super El Ni\u00f1o, may alter some of the typical outcomes. Some could be worse than before, while others may not show up at all.\n <\/p>\n

\n Amaya said there is little doubt that the ongoing El Ni\u00f1o is headed for an extraordinary peak intensity, given how much heat lurks just beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific, destined to rise up over time.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cWe\u2019re definitely on a Super El Ni\u00f1o trajectory,\u201d Amaya said. \u201cI would be willing to bet my house on it; we\u2019re going to get there.\u201d\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In February 1998, almost a year\u2019s worth of rain fell in downtown Los Angeles, as a series of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":604277,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[246,61,60,82],"class_list":["post-604276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-environment","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=604276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/604276\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/604277"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=604276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=604276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=604276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}