It will be Kevin Warsh\u2019s first as Fed Chair, at a time when inflation remains stubbornly above target and long-term yields have been under pressure.<\/p>\n
Kevin Warsh is trying to change the way the Fed functions and communicates its policy to the market (or whether it communicates at all!).<\/p>\n
Investors are questioning, since Treasury announced last week that it would increase its longer-term bond buybacks to tame borrowing costs, how the Fed will respond to the Treasury\u2019s intervention in the bond market, which \u2013 if successful \u2013 could interfere with the Fed\u2019s policy path and the transmission of its policy to the economy.<\/p>\n
Last month, Warsh said he wanted his speech to focus on important points such as AI and productivity, demographic changes, and the global economy\u2019s response to shocks from the Iran war. So we shall see!<\/p>\n
The agenda<\/p>\n
10am: Eurozone inflation report for August<\/p>\n
1.30pm: Canadian GDP for the second quarter<\/p>\n
3pm UK (10am EDT: Fed chairman Kevin Warsh delivers the keynote address at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in the US<\/p>\n
3pm: University of Michigan consumer sentiment index<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n The FTSE<\/a> 100 is trading higher after yesterday\u2019s disappointment, with mining stocks among the best performing.<\/p>\n London\u2019s blue-chip index was 0.22% up at 10,815 points, making up some of its losses from yesterday when its relative lack of tech stocks meant it fell 0.8%, missing out on the party after Nvidia\u2019s blockbuster quarterly results.<\/p>\n The chipmaker announced on Wednesday that its quarterly revenue had doubled<\/a> in a year to nearly $100bn, prompting founder Jensen Huang to declare a \u201cgolden age\u201d for the AI industry.<\/p>\n It prompted a rally across the Atlantic on Thursday, where the S&P 100 rose 0.97% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared 1.57%. That may now be helping the FTSE after the fact\u2026<\/p>\n Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, writes:<\/p>\n double quotation markStrong numbers from Nvidia and other tech sector constituents like Crowdstrike and Salesforce have helped shore up market sentiment, supported by some hints at dampened tensions in the Middle East.<\/p>\n The next test of investors\u2019 mettle will come later when Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh addresses the Jackson Hole Symposium of central bankers and politicians.<\/p>\n While immediate concerns about levels of government debt may have eased, with bond yields coming back down, the underlying issues haven\u2019t gone away.\u201d<\/p>\n Sentiment may also have been helped by a survey suggesting business confidence has reached its highest point since the start of the Iran war.<\/p>\n The Lloyds Business Barometer increased<\/a> by four points to 53%, as stronger demand and greater optimism about the economy boosted companies.<\/p>\n Gold prices also hit their highest level in more than three months<\/a> this week as continued conflict in the Middle East and ongoing political uncertainty fuelled a rally.<\/p>\n Endeavour Mining, Melrose Industries and Anlgo American, all miners, were among the top risers on the FTSE.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a004.59 EDT<\/p>\n Venezuela ‘considers quitting OPEC’ as US looks to seal oil accessAn oil-themed mural in Maracaibo, Venezuela. Photograph: Maryorin Mendez\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n Venezuela is reportedly mulling whether it should quit OPEC, potentially delivering a blow to the oil cartel.<\/p>\n US officials are thought to be in talks with the country\u2019s leaders over taking a large stake in the country\u2019s oil fields, following Donald Trump\u2019s surprise raid in January<\/a> when he captured former leader Nicolas M\u00e1duro.<\/p>\n One part of the discussions, reported<\/a> Bloomberg, is whether Venezuela could leave OPEC, which also includes Saudi Arabia and Iran. No final decision has been made.<\/p>\n Trump has already claimed that the US controls Venezuela\u2019s oil and has called it the 51st state.<\/a><\/p>\n OPEC, founded in 1960, is a group of major oil-producing countries that works as a cartel to control global oil supplies and prices. It stands for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.<\/p>\n Venezuela\u2019s oil-reated influence has waned since then<\/a>. It pumped 1.16 million barrels a day in July, less than half that of 10 years ago.<\/p>\n But its exit would add to doubts over the cartel\u2019s ability to hold a tight fist on global oil supply, as it has done for decades, after the United Arab Emirates also left the group earlier this year.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s our report from when the UAE announced it back in April\u2026<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a004.20 EDT<\/p>\n Burnham announces crackdown on rogue bailiffs Andy Burnham\u2019s latest \u201ceveryday fix\u201d to ease the cost of living will be to clamp down on rogue bailiffs, amid concerns that vulnerable people are being overcharged and face aggressive behaviour.<\/p>\n The prime minister said on Friday that he was strengthening the rules that apply to bailiffs in England and Wales to better protect people in debt.<\/p>\n It comes two months after the Guardian revealed that the government had been accused of dragging its feet<\/a> on the issue.<\/p>\n The industry collects more than \u00a31bn annually \u2013 but enforcement companies are not required to be authorised by the Enforcement Conduct Board (ECB) and some have refused to sign up.<\/p>\n The government said private bailiffs will need to be accredited by the ECB, or work for an enforcement company that is.<\/p>\n It added:<\/p>\n double quotation mark\u201cPrivate bailiffs will be held to consistent professional standards, and those facing enforcement action will have access to an independent complaints process \u2013 strengthening the rights of the most vulnerable.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Back on this side of the pond, revised economic figures show that France only narrowly avoided a recession in the first half of the year.<\/p>\n Economic output shrank 0.2% in the first quarter and flatlined in the second, according to the statistics agency Insee.<\/p>\n Note: It had previously estimated just a 0.1% decline in January to March, and 0.2% growth in April to June.<\/p>\n The French government has been vocal about its goal of reducing the budget deficit \u2013 which is when a government spends more money on public services, healthcare, and infrastructure than it collects in taxes and other income.<\/p>\n It has previously said it wants to bring the deficit to below 5% of GDP next year.<\/p>\n But it also has to balance that with pressure across Europe to spend more on defence, as well as AI spending. Lower GDP forecasts will only make that more difficult.<\/p>\n French minister for finance Roland Lescure \u2060said on Friday said the figures showed \u200chow this summer\u2019s heatwave had hit the economy, calling it \u201cthe first impact \u200bfrom \u200cthe \u200bhorrible summer \u200bwe have had\u201d.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a003.33 EDT<\/p>\n Today is the second day of the Jackson Hole conference \u2013 here are the Fed chiefs arriving for dinner yesterday.<\/p>\n First, the man of the moment, Kevin Warsh.<\/p>\n Fed chairman Kevin Warsh Photograph: Natalie Behring\/Getty Images<\/p>\n And are a few more arrivals, including Fed governor Lisa Cook, who remains subject of Donald Trump\u2019s plans to oust her over allegations of mortgage fraud<\/a> \u2013 despite a US supreme court decision that said she should remain.<\/p>\n Cook received a letter from the White House earlier this month that accused her of falling \u201cwell short of the standard\u201d required of a sitting Fed governor and requested written response to the same mortgage fraud allegations as before.<\/p>\n The supreme court in June ruled 5-4 that <\/a>Cook<\/a> was entitled to stay on as <\/a>Fed governor<\/a> while she fights the allegations, writing that Trump \u201cfailed to afford Cook the procedural protections to which she was entitled by statute\u201d.<\/p>\n Cook\u2019s lawyers called the allegations \u201cas baseless now as they were a year ago\u201d.<\/p>\n Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Photograph: Natalie Behring\/Getty ImagesFed governor Christopher Waller Photograph: Ann Saphir\/ReutersFederal Reserve of New York President John Williams Photograph: Ann Saphir\/Reuters<\/p>\n And here is the president of the Kansas City Fed, Jeffrey Schmid, enjoying the scenery.<\/p>\n Federal Reserve of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid Photograph: Ann Saphir\/ReutersShare<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a003.05 EDT<\/p>\n There is some speculation that Kevin Warsh won\u2019t give much forward-looking policy indications at all\u2026<\/p>\n That is because he\u2019s previously said he doesn\u2019t think forward signals like this are useful outside of economic crises.<\/p>\n So what will he say?<\/p>\n Kathleen Brooks, research director at the trading firm XTB, reckons:<\/p>\n double quotation markThis speech could focus on bigger issues, such as how he plans to run the world\u2019s most important central bank, and also what changes he will make and when.<\/p>\n While not offering direct guidance on the future of interest rates, everything he says will be scrutinised by investors, and changes that he plans to make could still trigger market volatility.\u201d<\/p>\n Warsh said in July that he still hadn\u2019t decided \u201cwhether it\u2019s going to be a big-picture speech\u201d or something more traditional.<\/p>\n Reminder: Fed governors usually use Jackson Hole to signpost where monetary policy will go in the future, and that is a key indicator for financial markets.<\/p>\n Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh speaking at his July press conference Photograph: Eric Lee\/Reuters<\/p>\n Deutsche Bank wrote in a note to clients on Friday:<\/p>\n double quotation markThat leaves him a few options for today. According to our US economists, they think that a \u2018big-picture\u2019 speech could include a discussion of the Fed\u2019s taskforces, or potentially on AI\u2019s economic impact.<\/p>\n Alternatively, the \u2018more traditional\u2019 speech might see Warsh do a \u2018cleanup\u2019 of the July press conference, and he may wish to counter one market narrative that Fed policy actions could be delayed until the task forces have completed their work.\u201d<\/p>\n Warsh was accused by investors of sending confusing signals in his first press conference as <\/a>Fed chair<\/a> in July, after he expressed his commitment to curbing inflation without giving details.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a002.47 EDT<\/p>\n Introduction: Fed’s Kevin Warsh prepares for Jackson Hole speech with inflation top of the agenda<\/p>\n Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the global economy, the financial markets, business and the global economy.<\/p>\n All eyes are on a mountain valley in Wyoming today, as central bankers and economists gather close to Yellowstone national park for a top-level symposium.<\/p>\n Inflation, and the bond market, is top of the agenda at the annual Federal Reserve symposium at Jackson Hole this year, as the Iran war puts pressure on the global economy.<\/p>\n Jackson Hole has been dubbed the Davos for central bankers, and today the financial markets are bracing for a speech from the world\u2019s most powerful central bank chief, Kevin Warsh, at 3pm UK time (10am Eastern).<\/p>\n Warsh is under pressure to provide clarity on how the Federal Reserve, which he leads, should deal with inflation if price pressures don\u2019t abate. Last month he created uncertainty by suggesting that the markets, not the Fed, should take the lead on tightening financial conditions.<\/p>\n But investors also hope to hear Warsh\u2019s view on the recent interference in the bond markets by Treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who has been trying to push down US long-term borrowing costs by buying long-dated bonds.<\/p>\n Besssent\u2019s move appears to put the Treasury on a collision course with the Fed – lower borrowing costs will spice up the economy, undermining the battle against inflation.<\/p>\n![\"Rupert](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Rupert_Jones.png\")
Rupert JonesA bailiff seen from behind wearing a protective jacket Photograph: Ian Francis\/Alamy<\/p>\n