A job seeker holds a flyer as they receive information about education careers with the Los Angeles Unified School District while attending a job and resource fair in Los Angeles, California, July 29, 2026.<\/p>\n
Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images<\/p>\n
After a disappointing July payrolls report<\/a> that showed the economy lost jobs that month, traders on prediction market<\/a> platforms think August will show a rebound in hiring, though potentially not as strong as economists think.\u00a0<\/p>\n Speculators on Kalshi<\/a> see 50-50 odds that more than 50,000 jobs were created last month. That implies a slightly lower outlook than Dow Jones consensus estimate for 53,000 jobs created in August.\u00a0<\/p>\n On the contracts on the market, traders are asked whether they think the U.S. added more than a certain number of jobs in the month. The contracts are resolved using official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\u00a0<\/p>\n Prediction market traders on Polymarket<\/a> give a 48% likelihood the economy created more than 50,000 jobs in August.\u00a0<\/p>\n For two months in a row, prediction market traders and economists have overestimated payroll numbers. Both expected job creation numbers in the six figures in June<\/a> \u2014 when they actually came in just below 60,000<\/a> \u2014 and for the economy to create jobs in July<\/a> when it ended up losing them.\u00a0<\/p>\n Given that, traders on Kalshi see a wide range for a beat or miss. Speculators on the platform see about 1-in-4 odds for a contract that implies the U.S. actually lost jobs last month, and a similar likelihood for another contract that asks if the country created more than 80,000 jobs in the period.\u00a0<\/p>\n The August employment reading will be delivered at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday.\u00a0<\/p>\n Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.<\/p>\n