{"id":612798,"date":"2026-09-03T02:08:12","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T02:08:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/612798\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T02:08:12","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T02:08:12","slug":"could-a-september-rate-hike-hurt-your-superannuation-returns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/612798\/","title":{"rendered":"Could a September rate hike hurt your superannuation returns?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Superannuation has had an excellent run of late, and a rate rise this month would be the first real test of it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on 29 September. Morgan Stanley <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com.au\/2026\/08\/31\/reporting-season-is-over-here-are-5-big-lessons-asx-investors-should-take-away\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">expects<\/a> a hike, which would be the first move higher in this cycle.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most Australians will not think about what that means for their retirement savings. But given the implications, this question is worth five minutes of your time.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"eager\" fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/interested-16.9-1200x675.jpg\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-post-image\" alt=\"Man and woman sitting at table with the man looking a bit puzzled at his laptop.\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>How your superannuation has actually performed<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The average superannuation fund did well in FY26.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chant West <a href=\"https:\/\/www.chantwest.com.au\/resources\/super-funds-on-track-for-4th-straight-year-of-strong-returns\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">estimates<\/a> the median growth fund returned around 9% in FY26, making it a fourth consecutive year of strong returns.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">International listed shares did most of the heavy lifting.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every asset class delivered a positive return over the year with the single exception of Australian real estate investment trusts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s important to compare this performance to two broadly-held ASX market ETFs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (<a class=\"tickerized-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com.au\/tickers\/asx-vas\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ASX: VAS<\/a>) tracks the S&amp;P\/ASX 300 Index across 321 <a href=\"https:\/\/fund-docs.vanguard.com\/ETF-Vanguard_Australian_Shares_Index_ETF_8205_FS_VAS.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">securities<\/a> for a fee of 0.07% a year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fund returned 5.79% over the year to 31 July 2026 and 8.92% annually across the past decade.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (<a class=\"tickerized-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com.au\/tickers\/asx-vhy\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ASX: VHY<\/a>) is far more concentrated, holding 92 companies led by Commonwealth Bank, BHP Group and the other major banks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its forecast <a href=\"https:\/\/fund-docs.vanguard.com\/ETF-Vanguard_Australian_Shares_High_Yield_ETF_8210_FS_VHY.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">yield<\/a> is 4.2%, or 5.5% once franking credits are counted, and it returned 17.87% over the year to 31 July 2026.<\/p>\n<p>What a rate rise would actually do<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Reserve Bank held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2026\/mr-26-19.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">statement<\/a> left little doubt about the direction of future interest rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, not everyone agrees the move comes this month.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fool.com.au\/2026\/08\/28\/why-the-asx-200-is-pushing-higher-as-rate-hike-fears-grow\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">sees<\/a> November as the more likely date.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hike would hit a superannuation fund in three places.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bond prices fall when yields rise, so the defensive part of your portfolio takes an immediate mark-to-market hit.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Australian real estate investment trusts and infrastructure assets are repriced lower, because their long-dated cash flows are worth less.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bank shares face slower credit growth and higher deposit costs, and they are a very large part of the local index.<\/p>\n<p>The parts of your superannuation that would hold up<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not everything suffers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cash and term deposit allocations earn more, which helps anyone in a conservative or pension-phase option.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, resources companies are largely driven by commodity prices rather than domestic rates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And then there are global equities, which are the biggest single driver of most balanced funds, and which respond to United States policy far more than Australian policy.<\/p>\n<p>What I would not do<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Switching your superannuation to cash ahead of a possible rate rise is the classic mistake.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You crystallise any loss, you miss the recovery, and you have to be right twice to come out ahead.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For investors who care about long-term returns, time in the market is much more important than timing the market.<\/p>\n<p>Foolish takeaway<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A September rate rise would trim returns, not wreck them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonds and rate-sensitive Australian shares would take the hit, while cash and global equities would cushion it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If your superannuation sits in a default balanced option and you have twenty years to run, the correct response is almost certainly nothing at all.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are drawing an income and are heavily weighted toward bank shares, it may be worth checking your allocation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Either way, the decision should reflect your time horizon, which is usually much longer term than a single rate decision.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Superannuation has had an excellent run of late, and a rate rise this month would be the first&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":612799,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[72,176,61,60,174,175,2278],"class_list":["post-612798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-personal-finance","tag-business","tag-finance","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-personal-finance","tag-personalfinance","tag-trending"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/612798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=612798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/612798\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/612799"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=612798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=612798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=612798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}