Good morning!<\/p>\n
Grain futures prices narrowly mixed overnight\u2026 As of 6:00 a.m. CDT, December corn was up 1\/2 cent, November soybeans up 2 1\/4 cents and December HRW and SRW wheat futures markets were 1\/4 cent lower. Corn and soybean market bulls continue to hang tough right in the teeth of harvest pressure that sees increased commercial hedge selling in both markets. Soybean meal is losing a bit of steam, which is worrisome to the bean bulls. Winter wheat futures markets remain trapped in near-term price downtrends and are not far above their recent contract lows. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. The USDX has been boosted this week as the Euro currency slumps amid the French political crisis currently playing out. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $61.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.16 percent.<\/p>\n
Some frost and freezes possible in upper Midwest\u2026 The National Weather Service reports that some freeze warnings and frost advisories are in place for parts of the north-central U.S. this morning, with some in Minnesota and Wisconsin lasting through Wednesday morning. Highs are forecast to only be in the 60s as far south as the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles today, which are around 15 to 20 degrees below average. Cooler temperatures will start to moderate closer to average temps in the central U.S. by Wednesday.<\/p>\n
Trump shows signs of compromise on ending government shutdown, then backs off\u2026 President Trump Monday sent mixed messages about the state of talks with Democrats regarding the U.S. government shutdown. Trump, who had remained on the sidelines for days, said he was open to negotiating with Democrats over health care subsidies to bring an end to the shutdown, at one point suggesting those talks had already begun, according to a Bloomberg<\/a> report. Trump\u2019s comments appeared to mark a shift after Republicans said they would only consider a possible extension of Obamacare subsidies after Democrats first passed legislation to fund the government. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer issued a statement saying that while no talks were ongoing, \u201cif he\u2019s finally ready to work with Democrats, we\u2019ll be at the table\u201d Hours later, Trump seemed to retreat. \u201cI am happy to work with the Democrats on their Failed Healthcare Policies, or anything else, but first they must allow our Government to re-open,\u201d Trump wrote in a social media post. The comments from both sides marked the first sign of movement after days of inaction to reopen the government.<\/p>\n U.S. Treasury market volatility level collapses amid U.S. government shutdown\u2026 Expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury markets has sunk to the lowest level in almost four years due to the U.S. government shutdown, according to a Bloomberg<\/a> report. \u201cThe government shutdown has delayed key U.S. economic data releases, depriving traders of catalysts for large price swings, and is expected to leave investors uncertain of the performance of the real economy. The absence of official government data may lead to a period of consolidation in the U.S. rates market, but a surprise quick resolution of the shutdown could result in a spike in implied volatility,\u201d said the Bloomberg story.<\/p>\n Pro Farmer crop consultant slightly lowers U.S. corn crop yield estimate\u2026 Longtime Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier this week has lowered his 2025 U.S. corn yield by 1.0 bushel to 181.0 bu\/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias. USDA did not release its weekly Crop Progress and Crop Condition reports this week due to the U.S. government shutdown, but the summer-like weather across the Midwest is accelerating the crop dry-down and early harvesting. \u201cCorn yields continue to be variable, depending on how much the corn was impacted by southern rust. We will not know the final corn yield until the harvest is complete, but the storyline of the 2025 U.S. corn crop is going to be the impact from southern rust,\u201d said Cordonnier. His 2025 U.S. soybean yield forecast was left unchanged this week at 52.0 bu\/ac, with a neutral-to-lower bias.\u201cIt is probably too dry in some areas, resulting in soybean seed moisture below 10%.When soybeans are extra dry at harvest, there can be a higher level of harvest loss due to increased shattering and splitting of soybeans that are subsequently blown out the back of the combine,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n U.S. farmers may find out more about aid programs today\u2026 President Trump is considering a large aid program for U.S. farmers and more specifics may come today. The Trump administration is reportedly evaluating how money made from tariffs could supplement farmer payments. Presently, details about the aid programs are scarce, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC last week that information regarding \u201csubstantial support\u201d for farmers would be released today. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office last Thursday his administration will provide \u201csome of that tariff money\u201d to farmers, \u201cwho are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick in to their benefit.\u201d<\/p>\n Australian wheat crop production trimmed by dry weather\u2026 A dry spell in Australia is taking the edge off of a bumper wheat harvest, trimming supplies from one of the world\u2019s largest exporters, according to a Bloomberg<\/a> report. Precipitation in September, a key phase for the crop\u2019s development, was lower than normal in the southeastern states of Victoria and South Australia, according to Bureau of Meteorology data. South Australia received less than 10 millimeters (0.4 inches), half the historical average. The southeastern states account for about a quarter of Australia\u2019s annual harvest, and both are coming out of years of severe drought. Heavy rain in winter months had raised hopes for a strong harvest. Victoria and South Australia were expected to collect about 8.2 million MT. \u201cI think there will be some cuts to production estimates, if they haven\u2019t already been made, in the next month or so,\u201d said James Maxwell, agribusiness senior insights manager at Bendigo Bank, in an interview with Bloomberg. \u201cBetween South Australia and Victoria, I\u2019d say we could see easily half-a-million MT, up to a million, if it was really bad.\u201d<\/p>\n Argentine government selling greenbacks to prop up its peso\u2026 Argentina\u2019s government sold U.S. dollars in the foreign-exchange market for a fifth straight session on Monday to stem a slide in the Argentine peso. Its central bank sold between $450 million and $480 million at around 1,430 pesos per dollar, weakening the peso 0.4% to close at that level. President Javier Milei\u2019s administration has sold an estimated $1.3 billion since last Tuesday, depleting the Argentine treasury\u2019s already thin cash position, reported Bloomberg<\/a>. \u201cThe sales underscore the pressure on the peso, even after the U.S. pledged assistance and local authorities reintroduced capital controls in recent weeks, including a 90-day ban on reselling dollars. Argentine Economy Minister Luis Caputo and Central Bank President Santiago Bausili traveled to Washington on Friday for talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the IMF,\u201d said the Bloomberg report.<\/p>\n