{"id":65552,"date":"2025-10-07T20:47:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T20:47:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/65552\/"},"modified":"2025-10-07T20:47:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T20:47:08","slug":"sugar-prices-fall-back-as-covrig-forecasts-a-global-sugar-glut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/65552\/","title":{"rendered":"Sugar Prices Fall Back as Covrig Forecasts a Global Sugar Glut"},"content":{"rendered":"

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26<\/a>) on Tuesday closed down -0.18 (-1.07%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25<\/a>) closed down -6.40 (-1.38%).<\/p>\n

Sugar prices gave up an early advance on Tuesday and turned lower, with NY sugar falling from a 1.75-month nearest-futures high. \u00a0Sugar prices retreated after Covrig Analytics projected a +4.1 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025\/26 season.<\/p>\n

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\u00a0<\/p>\n

NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high on Tuesday on signs of lower sugar content from this year’s Brazil sugar crush. \u00a0 Last Thursday, Unica reported that the sugar content in Brazil’s Center-South sugarcane crushed cane in the first half of September dropped to 154.58 kilograms per ton (kg\/ton) compared to 160.07 kg\/ton in the same period a year earlier. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Last month, NY sugar sank to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar slumped to a 4-year low as they extended their 7-month downtrend due to prospects of abundant global sugar supplies. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Higher sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices. \u00a0Unica reported last Thursday that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% y\/y to 3.622 MT. \u00a0Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills in the second half of August increased to 53.49% from 47.74% the same time last year. \u00a0However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-September fell -0.1% y\/y to 30.388 MMT.<\/p>\n

The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. \u00a0India’s Meteorological Department reported last Tuesday that the cumulative monsoon rain in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal and the strongest monsoon in 5 years. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The outlook for higher sugar production in India is bearish for prices. \u00a0On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +19% y\/y to 34.9 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. \u00a0That would follow a -17.5% y\/y decline in India’s sugar production in 2024\/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). \u00a0<\/p>\n

Another bearish factor for sugar was the recent assertion from sugar trader Sucden that India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025\/26, which is not enough to ease the country’s sugar surplus and may prompt India’s sugar mills to export as much as 4 MMT of sugar, above earlier expectations of 2 MMT. \u00a0India is the world’s second-largest producer of sugar.<\/p>\n

The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for prices after the Thai Sugar Miller Corp projected last Wednesday that Thailand’s 2025\/26 sugar crop will increase by +5% y\/y to 10.5 MMT. \u00a0On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024\/25 sugar production rose +14% y\/y to 10.00 MMT. \u00a0Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.<\/p>\n

On August 29, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a global sugar deficit for the 2025\/26 season, the sixth consecutive year of sugar deficits. \u00a0The ISO projects a global 2025\/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, improving from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024\/25. \u00a0The ISO also projects 2025\/26 global sugar production will rise by +3.3% y\/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025\/26 global sugar consumption will increase +0.3% y\/y to 180.8 MMT.<\/p>\n

Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are bearish for prices. \u00a0On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025\/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. \u00a0On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y\/y.<\/p>\n

On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, cut its Brazil 2025\/26 production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a previous estimate of 45.9 MMT. \u00a0In July, Conab reported that 2024\/25 Brazil sugar production fell by -3.4% y\/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.<\/p>\n

The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025\/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y\/y to a record 177.921 MMT. \u00a0The USDA also forecasted that 2025\/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y\/y to 41.188 MMT. \u00a0The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025\/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y\/y to a record 44.7 MMT \u00a0FAS predicted that India’s 2025\/26 sugar production would rise +25% y\/y to 35.3 MMT due to favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. \u00a0FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025\/26 sugar production will climb +2% y\/y to 10.3 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n On the date of publication,<\/p>\n

Rich Asplund<\/a><\/p>\n

did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.<\/p>\n

For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy<\/p>\n

here<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed down -0.18 (-1.07%), and December London ICE white sugar…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":65553,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[72,61,60,123],"class_list":["post-65552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-markets","tag-business","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65552","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65552"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65552\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/65553"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65552"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65552"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65552"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}