El Ni\u00f1o is the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that releases heat from the ocean into the atmosphere and temporarily boosts global temperatures.<\/p>\n
Carbon Brief\u2019s analysis gives 2026 a 67% chance of surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record across an average of six global temperature datasets.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In January, it is likely the groups that report global surface temperatures will be divided on whether 2026 officially beat 2024\u2019s record<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Currently, the odds for a record year range from as high as 97% in Berkeley Earth\u2019s dataset to less than 20% in European Copernicus\/ECMWF\u2019s ERA5 reanalysis product.<\/p>\n With El Ni\u00f1o expected to intensify into the winter, Carbon Brief projects that 2027 will be 1.7C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96% chance that it is the warmest year on record.<\/p>\n In this latest \u201cstate of the climate\u201d quarterly update, Carbon Brief finds:<\/p>\n August 2026 was the warmest August on record in all six major datasets, at around 0.12C above the previous record. September was the second-warmest September, behind 2023.<\/p>\n January-September was the second-warmest such period on record, at around 1.45C above pre-industrial levels, behind only 2024.<\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o broke<\/a> the daily \u201cNi\u00f1o3.4\u201d region record in September and has stayed above the previous record every day since. Nearly all forecast model runs have it as the strongest El Ni\u00f1o on record, with a peak of around 4C occurring this winter.<\/p>\n Around 22% of the world\u2019s surface saw its warmest July-September on record, including much of the tropical Pacific, the western Mediterranean and Iberia. Western Europe had its hottest summer on record and Spain its warmest September, beating the previous record by 0.7C.<\/p>\n Carbon Brief projects that 2026 will end up around 1.52C above pre-industrial levels, with a 67% chance of beating 2024\u2019s record.\u00a0<\/p>\n Whether 2026 is declared the warmest year depends on the dataset; a record is likely in Berkeley Earth and NASA GISTEMP, is too close to call in HadCRUT5, JRA-3Q and NOAA and is unlikely in ERA5.<\/p>\n Earth\u2019s energy imbalance has more than doubled since the start of the satellite record, from around 0.5 watts per metre squared (W\/m2) in the 2000s to around 1.25W\/m2 over the past decade.<\/p>\n The Arctic sea ice minimum was tied for 10th lowest in the satellite record, while Antarctic sea ice saw its third-lowest winter peak.<\/p>\n This year\u2019s record-setting El Ni\u00f1o will have its largest effect on global temperatures in 2027. Carbon Brief projects 2027 at around 1.7C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96% chance that it will be the warmest year on record.<\/p>\n A record August and the second-warmest year to date<\/p>\n Carbon Brief analyses records from six different groups that report global surface temperatures:\u00a0<\/p>\n There are a number of additional groups that feature in Carbon Brief\u2019s annual \u201cstate of the climate<\/a>\u201d update, but are not included here due to a lack of regular monthly updates.<\/p>\n The first nine months of 2026 were the second warmest on record in all six datasets, behind only 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n The figure below shows annual temperatures in each dataset since 1970, along with the 2026 average to date.<\/p>\n The year got off to a comparatively slow start. Each month from January to June ran cooler than the same month in 2024, as the lingering effects<\/a> of weak La Ni\u00f1a conditions gave way to a developing El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n La Ni\u00f1a and El Nino are the cool and warm phases of the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that reshapes weather patterns around the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n That changed in the third quarter of the year. July 2026 was the second-warmest July in the six-dataset average and a narrow record in the NASA GISTEMP and NOAA datasets. (NOAA\u2019s own assessment<\/a> described it as tied with July 2024.)<\/p>\n August then set a new record for the month by around 0.12C in the six-dataset average. It was the warmest August on record in every one of the six datasets, by margins ranging from 0.07C (HadCRUT5 and NOAA) to 0.13C (ERA5).<\/p>\n September temperatures stalled a little following the rise in July and August. At around 1.62C, it was the second-warmest September on record in all five datasets to have reported so far, around 0.08C below the record<\/a> set in September 2023.<\/p>\n The figure below shows each month of 2026 alongside every year since 1940, with 2023, 2024 and 2025 highlighted.<\/p>\n Across the six-dataset average, July-September 2026 was effectively tied with the same period in 2023 as the warmest on record, at around 1.57C. It ranked first in GISTEMP and NOAA (and in HadCRUT5 for July-August), and second in Berkeley Earth, ERA5 and JRA-3Q.<\/p>\n The figure below shows the January-September average for every year since 1850. It shows how temperatures in 2026 to date sit at 1.45C \u2013 around 0.06C below 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n A record-setting El Ni\u00f1o event<\/p>\n In September, El Ni\u00f1o crossed a milestone. The daily sea surface temperature anomaly in the \u201cNi\u00f1o3.4\u201d region of the tropical Pacific \u2013 the area most widely used to gauge El Ni\u00f1o strength \u2013 broke the record<\/a>, previously set in November 2015, to become the strongest event since the satellite era began in 1981.\u00a0<\/p>\n This year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o has remained<\/a> above that record every day since. September recorded the highest monthly Ni\u00f1o3.4 region temperature anomaly since records began in the mid-1800s.<\/p>\n As of 18 October, the daily value stood at around 3.5C above the 1996-2025 average for the time of year and around 0.4C above the 2015 peak.<\/p>\n The figure below shows how El Nino is projected to keep intensifying until the end of this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n Carbon Brief examined 656 forecasts from 14 different climate models<\/a> that were run between late September and mid-October. On average they estimate that this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o will peak around 4C in December \u2013 more than 1C above the prior record.\u00a0<\/p>\n (Ten models expect a December peak and four anticipate a November peak.)<\/p>\n Based on an analysis of tree rings and coral sediments<\/a>, it is possible that this will be the strongest El Ni\u00f1o event in a millennium<\/a>.<\/p>\n The forecasts have strengthened since Carbon Brief\u2019s July \u201cstate of the climate<\/a>\u201d update, when El Ni\u00f1o was expected to peak around 3.6C.\u00a0<\/p>\n While human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are responsible for effectively all of the Earth\u2019s long-term warming<\/a>, temperatures in any given year are strongly influenced by short-term variations to the Earth\u2019s climate associated with El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a<\/a> events.\u00a0<\/p>\n Global temperatures tend to lag the tropical Pacific by around three months, which means an El Ni\u00f1o peaking around the end of 2026 will have its largest effect on global temperatures in 2027.<\/p>\n Record heat across much of the world<\/p>\n In addition to high global average surface temperatures, the past three months have seen records broken across many parts of the planet.\u00a0<\/p>\n The map below shows July-September 2026 temperatures relative to the 1981-2010 average in the ERA5 reanalysis.\u00a0<\/p>\n Globally, temperatures were 0.96C above that 30-year period and 1.58C above the ERA5 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.<\/p>\n The El Ni\u00f1o is clearly visible as a band of exceptional warmth stretching across the eastern and central tropical Pacific, with temperatures more than 4C above average off the coast of Ecuador and Peru.\u00a0<\/p>\n Western Europe and the Mediterranean were also unusually warm, with temperatures around 3C above average over France and the western Mediterranean Sea. North-west Russia, the Canadian Arctic, south-central North America, eastern Africa and parts of west Antarctica were also exceptionally warm.<\/p>\n The most notable part of the planet that was colder than usual was the Weddell Sea sector of Antarctica, which came in at more than 2C below average for the season.<\/p>\n The map below shows how July-September 2026 ranked against every year in the ERA5 record (1940-2026) at each location. Areas in dark red saw their warmest July-September on record; blues show areas among the five coldest.<\/p>\n Around 22% of the world\u2019s surface saw its warmest July-September on record and around half experienced one of its five warmest. By contrast, around 0.5% of the world saw one of its five coldest July-September periods.<\/p>\n Record warmth covered most of the El Ni\u00f1o region (including more than 90% of the Ni\u00f1o3<\/a> and Ni\u00f1o3.4 regions) along with sizeable parts of the south Atlantic (39%), the tropical Indian Ocean (34%) and the subtropical North Atlantic (25%, with 85% in its five warmest).\u00a0<\/p>\n On land, around 85% of France and Iberia saw a record-warm July-September.<\/p>\n In September alone, around 20% of the world\u2019s surface saw its warmest September on record.<\/p>\n Overall, 55 countries<\/a> set national records for September average temperatures, including Chile, Colombia, Italy, Kenya, Nigeria, the Philippines, Portugal, Spain, the United Arab Emirates, US and Venezuela.<\/p>\n Europe had an exceptional summer<\/a>, with the western part of the continent experiencing its hottest summer on record.\u00a0<\/p>\n Copernicus reported<\/a> that western Europe\u2019s summer averaged 21.7C \u2013 2.5C above the 1991-2020 average \u2013 beating the previous record set in 2003. A record 52% of the continent was exposed to \u201cvery strong\u201d heat stress by the end of the season.\u00a0<\/p>\n Europe as a whole had its third-warmest summer, behind 2024 and 2022.<\/p>\n France had its warmest July on record<\/a>, at 3.8C above the 1991-2020 average. Switzerland had its hottest summer<\/a> since records began, averaging 17.2C.\u00a0<\/p>\n The heat persisted into the autumn in south-west Europe. Spain had its warmest September on record<\/a>, at 3.4C above the 1991-2020 average. This beat the previous record set in 1987 by a remarkable 0.7C.<\/p>\n Rivers across Europe saw their lowest summer flows<\/a> since the European Flood Awareness System\u2019s records began in 1992. By early September, the area burned across the EU was almost twice the 2006-25 average for the time of year, according to Copernicus, extending what had already been a severe fire season<\/a>.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, the contiguous US had its hottest summer on record<\/a> and its warmest September<\/a>, with around 59% of the country in drought conditions.\u00a0<\/p>\n India\u2019s monsoon, which tends to weaken during El Ni\u00f1o years, ended with 12.6% less rainfall than normal<\/a>, the driest in 11 years.<\/p>\n This year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o event has strongly impacted the hurricane season, suppressing the formation<\/a> of hurricanes in the Atlantic while contributing to a record-setting number<\/a> of tropical cyclones in the Pacific.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n Good odds of being world\u2019s warmest year\u00a0<\/p>\n Carbon Brief\u2019s projection for average global temperature for 2026 combines observed temperatures through September with the latest forecasts<\/a> of the strength of El Ni\u00f1o. It uses a statistical model trained on the historical relationship between year-to-date temperatures, El Ni\u00f1o conditions and annual temperatures.<\/p>\n The figure below shows the six-dataset average for each year since 1970 (dark blue), the year-to-date January-September 2026 average (blue circle) and Carbon Brief\u2019s 2026 estimate (red circle) with its 90% likelihood range (vertical red line).<\/p>\n The best estimate for 2026 is now around 1.52C above pre-industrial levels, with a 90% range of 1.50C to 1.55C. This is slightly higher \u2013 but effectively tied with \u2013 the prior record of 1.52C set in 2024.<\/p>\n It marks a slight increase from Carbon Brief\u2019s previous projection of 1.51C, set out in its July\u2019s \u201cstate of the climate<\/a>\u201d update.<\/p>\n There is an approximately 67% chance of setting a new record this year in the average of the six-datasets examined.\u00a0<\/p>\n The year 2026 also has a 93% chance of coming in above 1.5C in the six-dataset average (though not in every individual dataset), which would make it the second year above 1.5C<\/a>, after 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n However, a single year above 1.5C does not itself constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement goal<\/a>, which reflects a longer-term average.<\/p>\n These odds also depend on assumptions that are hard to pin down.\u00a0<\/p>\n The El Ni\u00f1o forecast for October-December lies beyond any event in the record the model is trained on. The projection assumes the historical relationship between the strength of El Ni\u00f1o and its impact on global temperatures holds for an event this large. If the warming effect of this El Ni\u00f1o turns out to be no larger than that of the strongest past events, the odds of a record year for global temperature would be closer to 50%.<\/p>\n Datasets are split on whether 2026 is headed for a record<\/p>\n Different groups of scientific researchers around the world will announce their own results for 2026 in January.\u00a0<\/p>\n Across the six datasets that Carbon Brief explores there will likely be mixed results, with some datasets showing 2026 as the warmest year on record \u2013 and others showing it as the second warmest year.<\/p>\n Based on temperatures to-date and the current El Ni\u00f1o forecast, Carbon Brief estimates that a 2026 record is very likely in Berkeley Earth (97%) and likely in NASA GISTEMP (82%). It is about as likely as not in JRA-3Q (48%) and NOAA (34%) and unlikely in ERA5 (18%).<\/p>\n HadCRUT5 currently shows a 72% chance of a 2026 record, but this is based on data only through August. Plausible values for September \u2013 which the other datasets suggest was slightly cooler than August \u2013 would put its odds somewhere between around 50% and 80%.<\/p>\n The difference in odds comes down to how far each temperature group\u2019s data for 2026 trails the prior record set in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n For example, over January-September, Berkeley Earth has 2026 around 0.03C cooler than the same months of 2024, so its final three months need to beat those of 2024 by around 0.08C.\u00a0<\/p>\n ERA5, by contrast, has 2026 around 0.09C behind 2024 over the same period, meaning October-December would need to run around 0.27C warmer than the last three months of 2024.<\/p>\n None of these datasets is \u201cright\u201d. They differ in how they fill gaps in regions where fewer observations are taken, such as the poles, and in which sea surface temperature records they use.\u00a0<\/p>\n The two reanalysis products, ERA5 and JRA-3Q, take a different approach altogether, using a weather model constrained by observations to estimate air temperatures everywhere, rather than combining land and ocean measurements.<\/p>\n There is precedent for a split decision. In January 2015, NASA and NOAA announced<\/a> that the year 2014 was most likely the warmest on record, while the Met Office described it as tied with 2010. January 2027 could see something similar.<\/p>\n 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record<\/p>\n The biggest temperature effect of this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o event will be felt next year. Just as the 2015-16 El Ni\u00f1o helped make 2016<\/a> the then-warmest year on record, an event peaking around the end of 2026 will have its largest influence on global temperatures in 2027.<\/p>\n Carbon Brief projects 2027 will end up at around 1.74C above pre-industrial levels, with a relatively wide 90% uncertainty range of 1.54C to 1.95C.\u00a0<\/p>\n This is based on the historical relationship between year-on-year temperature changes and El Ni\u00f1o conditions in the preceding autumn, factoring in the remaining uncertainty around where temperatures in 2026 will end up.<\/p>\n The figure below shows the six-dataset average for each year since 1970 (dark blue), along with Carbon Brief\u2019s projections for 2026 (orange) and 2027 (red).<\/p>\n This gives 2027 a 96% chance of being warmer than any previous year, including 2026. There is a 98% chance that at least one of 2026 or 2027 will set a new record.<\/p>\n The estimate for 2027 is necessarily much more uncertain than for 2026. None of the year has been observed yet and the result depends on both the peak strength of the El Ni\u00f1o and how quickly it fades.\u00a0<\/p>\n As noted above, this year\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o strength is currently projected<\/a> to peak well beyond the strongest event in the record on which Carbon Brief\u2019s model is trained. Carbon Brief predicts a rise in temperatures between 2026 and 2027 of around 0.2C due to El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 larger than the jump that followed any previous El Ni\u00f1o events. The projection assumes the historical relationship between El Ni\u00f1o and global temperatures will hold for an event this large, but it remains to be seen whether this is the case.<\/p>\n Nevertheless, even an average global temperature on even the low end of the range (1.54C) would exceed 2024 and, while Carbon Brief\u2019s central estimate of 1.74C would beat it by more than 0.2C.\u00a0<\/p>\n If these projections bear out, the 2020s will have delivered new records in 2023, 2024, 2027 and, quite possibly, 2026.<\/p>\n Earth\u2019s energy imbalance has more than doubled<\/p>\n The rise in global temperatures is a symptom of Earth\u2019s rising energy imbalance. This is the difference<\/a> between the energy the planet absorbs from the sun and the energy it radiates back to space.\u00a0<\/p>\n As long as this energy imbalance is positive, the Earth system accumulates heat, around 90% of which ends up in the oceans.<\/p>\n Earth\u2019s energy imbalance has more than doubled<\/a> in recent decades. This growing imbalance means the planet is accumulating heat ever faster and that global warming is accelerating.\u00a0<\/p>\n NASA\u2019s CERES satellite instruments<\/a> have tracked changes in this imbalance at the top of the atmosphere since March 2000.\u00a0<\/p>\n The figure below shows the Earth\u2019s energy imbalance from 2000 to August 2026, with monthly values (faint line), 12-month averages (dark blue), calendar-year averages (dots) and the linear trend (red dashes).<\/p>\n The Earth\u2019s energy imbalance rose from an average of around 0.53W\/m2 over the first decade of the record (March 2000 to February 2010) to around 1.25W\/m2 over the most recent decade (March 2016 to February 2026) \u2013 a 2.4-fold increase.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The highest annual energy imbalance recorded to date was in 2023<\/a> at 1.79W\/m2, while the most recent 12 months (September 2025 to August 2026) averaged at 1.59W\/m2.<\/p>\n Several studies, including 2026 research covered by Carbon Brief<\/a>, have noted that the imbalance appears to have risen faster than most climate models simulate, though the reasons remain unclear.<\/p>\n The measurements also come with some caveats. CERES tracks changes in the imbalance well, but its absolute level is anchored to ocean heat content measurements<\/a>. Changes to satellite orbits over time add a further uncertainty of around 0.1W\/m2 per decade to the trend.<\/p>\n A 2021 study<\/a> found that independent satellite and in situ observations \u201ceach yield statistically indistinguishable decadal increases\u201d in the imbalance between 2005 and 2019.\u00a0<\/p>\n Over longer periods, CERES shows more energy being accumulated than ocean heat estimates set out by Institute for Atmospheric Physics<\/a> data and by the authors of the Indicators of Global Climate Change<\/a> report.\u00a0<\/p>\n The imbalance typically dips as a strong El Ni\u00f1o peaks and the ocean releases heat to space, as it did in 2024. Next year\u2019s energy imbalance may be slightly lower.<\/p>\n Arctic sea ice minimum tied for 10th lowest, Antarctic near record lows<\/p>\n Around mid-September of each year, Arctic sea ice drops to an annual low, whereas Antarctic sea ice grows to its largest area of the year.<\/p>\n On 12 September, Arctic sea ice reached its annual minimum extent<\/a>, at 4.60m square kilometres (km2) on the five-day average used by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center<\/a> (NSIDC).\u00a0<\/p>\n The 2026 minimum shares the 10th lowest spot<\/a> \u2013 alongside 2008, 2010 and 2025 \u2013 in the nearly 48-year satellite record and was 1.21m km2 above the record low set in 2012, according to NSIDC.<\/p>\n That represents a modest recovery from earlier in the year, when Arctic sea ice set, or tied, record daily lows on 39 days between January and 2 July, following a joint-lowest winter maximum<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n Arctic sea ice extent has not set, or tied, a daily record low since 2 July and has been within the 1979-2010 range for the time of year since the start of August, though still well below the long-term average.\u00a0<\/p>\n (As Carbon Brief has previously explained<\/a>, conditions earlier in the year are a poor predictor of the September minimum).<\/p>\n In the southern hemisphere, Antarctic sea ice reached its winter maximum<\/a> on 14 September, at 17.59m km2. This was the third lowest<\/a> on record, behind only 2023 and 2024. It recently fell sharply<\/a> and hit record daily lows for much of the period since early October.\u00a0<\/p>\n The figure below shows daily Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in 2026 (solid lines), compared with the 1979-2010 range (shading) and the record low for each day (dotted line).<\/p>\n Experts: How are climate scientists using artificial intelligence? <\/p>\n <\/p>\n UNEP: Opportunity has \u2018been lost\u2019 to meet 1.5C warming limit without \u2018overshoot\u2019 <\/p>\n <\/p>\n Guest post: Why tough methane cuts are crucial for keeping warming \u2018well-below\u2019 2C <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/cb-live-nov-zeke-sotc-1024x326.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image12.png\")
Global mean surface temperatures datasets aligned on a common 1981-2010 baseline, then shifted by the average 1850-1900 to 1981-2010 warming (0.67C) in HadCRUT5, NOAA and Berkeley Earth. 2026 to-date dots are staggered horizontally to avoid overlaps and the HadCRUT5 is for January-August as September data was not available at time of publication. <\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/global-temperatures-_1-scaled.png\")
Monthly averages of six global mean surface temperature datasets. The September datapoint excludes HadCRUT5 which had not reported at the time of publication.<\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image11-1024x751.png\")
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Average of 656 forecasts across 14 dynamical models. The lighter shaded area reflects the period when only seven models are available. <\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/this-years-el-nio-is-2-1024x732.png\")
Ni\u00f1o3.4 region sea surface temperature peak warming projected from 656 runs of 14 different dynamical El Ni\u00f1o models. Y-axis denotes the share of model runs in each 0.2C \u201cbin<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n![\"Global](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image2-1024x751.png\")
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Areas where hot and cold records were set from July-September 2026 compared to the same period in all other years since the ERA5 dataset began in 1940. Share of global surface: 21.5% record warm, 49.9% top-five warm, 0.5% top-five cold and <0.1% record cold. <\/p>\n![\"Global](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image13-1024x739.png\")
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The dark red dot marks Carbon Brief\u2019s median projection for 2027, the bar the 50% range and line the 90% range. <\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image14-1024x786.png\")
Likelihood of a 2026 record in different datasets using Carbon Brief\u2019s model. Carbon Brief\u2019s projection is based on each dataset\u2019s observations and record. Probability for HadCRUT5 is based on data through August, as September data was not available at time of publication.<\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image10-1024x786.png\")
The dark red dot marks Carbon Brief\u2019s median projection for 2027, the bar the 50% range and line the 90% range. <\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image5-1024x720.png\")
Earth energy imbalance measured by NASA\u2019s CERES satellites.<\/p>\n![\"Chart](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/image4-1024x790.png\")
Daily Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent in 2026 compared to the prior record low and the 1979-2010 historical range. 2026\u2019s data runs until 17 October. Arctic minimum and Antarctic maximum calculated using NSIDC\u2019s five-day mean. <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/3DF1K4D-768x512.jpg\")
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