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<\/p>\nSeptember production falls to a two-year low, but daily output tells a different story<\/p>\n
September typically records lower monthly primary aluminium production than August, and this year was no exception, with global output standing the lowest since 2023 at\u00a06.014 million tonnes. Year-on-year, the September 2026 volume represented a\u00a0decrease of 1.41 per cent from 6.1 million tonnes, while dipped marginally\u00a0by 0.23 per cent from 6.028 million tonnes in September 2024.<\/p>\n
However, the bright side amidst this was that the month-on-month contraction was less pronounced than in the previous two years. Global output decreased by approximately 2.8 per cent in September 2026, compared with declines of 3.11 per cent in both September 2025 and September 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Crucially, the recurring September decline should not automatically be interpreted as deterioration in smelter performance. September has 30 days compared with August’s 31, creating a calendar effect on monthly production totals.<\/p>\n
In fact, IAI data indicate that average daily global primary aluminium production increased marginally from approximately 199,600 tonnes in August 2026 to 200,500 tonnes in September. This suggests that the decline in September’s total volume was primarily attributable to the shorter month rather than a reduction in the industry’s daily production rate.<\/p>\n
Consequently, while September’s two-year low highlights the weakness in global output on an annual comparison, the improvement in daily production offers evidence of stabilising operational activity towards the end of Q3.<\/p>\n
Q3 recovery gains momentum, but global output remains below previous years<\/p>\n
The sequential increase in Q3 2026 continued a pattern observed in the corresponding quarters of the previous two years. In Q3 2025, global primary aluminium production increased by 1.33 per cent quarter-on-quarter to 18.683 million tonnes, while Q3 2024 registered a stronger sequential expansion of 2.3 per cent to 18.467 million tonnes.<\/p>\n
At 2.1 per cent, the quarterly growth rate in 2026 was stronger than in 2025 but marginally below that of 2024. More importantly, the recovery came from a lower production base, reflecting the impact of supply disruptions during the first half of the year.<\/p>\n
The regional breakdown reveals that the improvement was geographically widespread, although the scale of recovery differed considerably.<\/p>\n
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The GCC emerged as the fastest-growing region, registering an 8.1 per cent sequential increase, followed by Oceania at 3.6 per cent and Europe, including Russia, at 3.1 per cent. South America and China, n the other hand, recorded production growth of 2.1 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively, while Asia excluding China registered a comparatively modest increase of 1.4 per cent.<\/p>\n
North America was the only region to experience a sequential contraction, with production declining by 0.41 per cent from 981,000 tonnes to 977,000 tonnes. Africa remained broadly stable, recording 276,000 tonnes against 275,000 tonnes in the preceding quarter.<\/p>\n
Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: “Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply\u2013Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook<\/a>“<\/p>\n GCC leads the recovery as EGA and Alba\u00a0restore\u00a0capacity<\/p>\n The improvement in the GCC\u2019s Q3 2026 primary aluminium production followed\u00a0disruptions to aluminium production across the Gulf after the escalation of the US-Iran conflict in March 2026. Iranian attacks on Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA) Al Taweelah smelter<\/a> in Abu Dhabi and Aluminium Bahrain’s (Alba) operations, together with logistical restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz, significantly affected regional production and raw material movements.<\/p>\n The disruption was particularly severe at Al Taweelah, where an attack on March 28 forced the smelter into an emergency shutdown. EGA began restarting reduction cells on May 26, gradually restoring production across its three potlines. As the restart progressed, GCC\u2019s monthly production recovered, with daily average output increasing from around 9,100 tonnes to approximately 9,800 tonnes. Monthly production subsequently reached 306,000 tonnes by September, although it remained below pre-conflict levels.<\/p>\n Alba also made progress in restoring its production operations. By September, the company was operating at approximately 80 per cent of pre-war levels<\/a>, equivalent to an annualised production rate of 1.3 million tonnes against its previous capacity of approximately 1.6 million tonnes.<\/p>\n EGA’s 50% restart milestone could strengthen Q4 output<\/p>\n A more substantial improvement in GCC production could emerge during Q4 2026 as EGA advances the r,estoration of Al Taweelah. On October 21, EGA confirmed that it had restarted 631 of the smelter’s 1,262 reduction cells, representing 50 per cent of the total. Since the restart of reduction cells does not immediately translate into equivalent finished-metal production and it typically takes a week to stabilise and achieve full production, the effect of the restoration is likely to be seen in the Q4 data.<\/p>\n Theoretically, daily production rate per reduction cell is 3.5\u20133.7 tonnes. So, for the 631 restarted cells, the production volume in 30 days could reach approximately 66,255\u201370,041 tonnes, provided all cells have stabilised and achieved the assumed operating rate. For a 31-day period, this would translate into approximately 68,463\u201372,376 tonnes.<\/p>\n Note: These estimates represent potential production at the assumed operating rate rather than confirmed output or an October production forecast. Actual volumes will depend on the timing of individual restarts, cell performance, operational stability and the continued commissioning programme.<\/p>\n Also read:\u00a0Showcase your brand, aluminium recycling initiatives and sustainability vision in our upcoming magazine: Sustainability & Recycling: Aluminium\u2019s Commitment 2026<\/a>.<\/p>\n Oceania’s growth reflects broader improvements in smelter performance<\/p>\n Oceania recorded the second-highest sequential production growth in Q3 2026, with primary aluminium output rising by approximately 3.6 per cent from 476,000 tonnes in Q2 to 492,000 tonnes. The improvement was primarily supported by higher output across several established smelters in Australia and New Zealand.<\/p>\n Rio Tinto’s operational data reveal that production at the Boyne Island smelter increased from 125,000 tonnes in Q2 to 130,000 tonnes in Q3, while the Tomago smelter registered growth from 143,000 tonnes to 147,000 tonnes.<\/p>\n The Bell Bay smelter in Tasmania recorded a smaller increase from 47,000 tonnes to 48,000 tonnes, while New Zealand’s Tiwai Point smelter produced approximately 84,000 tonnes, compared with 83,000 tonnes in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n Collectively, production across these four facilities increased from approximately 398,000 tonnes in Q2 to 409,000 tonnes in Q3, representing growth of 2.76 per cent. These smelters accounted for a substantial share of the regional production increase, highlighting the contribution of established operations to Oceania’s recovery.<\/p>\n Additional support came from the restoration of previously curtailed capacity at Alcoa’s Portland smelter in Australia, where the company completed the restart of 15,000 tonnes per annum of capacity during Q2. The restored capacity was therefore available to contribute throughout Q3.<\/p>\n The regional improvement was not limited to sequential growth. Oceania’s primary aluminium production also increased by approximately 3.8 per cent year-on-year from 474,000 tonnes in Q3 2025.<\/p>\n Europe gains as Spain and Norway’s smelter restarts support supply<\/p>\n