THE COST OF a united Ireland could be up to \u20ac25 billion in year one, a report from Fine Gael has said.<\/p>\n
The figure is the highest year-one cost projection contained in Fine Gael\u2019s \u201cblueprint\u201d for Irish unity, which also sets out a more favourable annual cost of \u20ac3.2 billion in the first year, depending on the design of the constitutional change.<\/p>\n
The most adverse high-cost scenario also estimates a potential bill of \u20ac41.2 billion for year 25 after unity.<\/p>\n
The party\u2019s proposals also include a new junior minister for North-South relations in a dedicated unit within the Department of An Taoiseach and the establishment of a dedicated sovereign wealth fund to deal with the potential costs of transition.<\/p>\n
The document is a key part of Fine Gael\u2019s annual ard fheis and also includes modelling of the economic \u201ccost and opportunities\u201d associated with unification, with the T\u00e1naiste saying his party wants to have an \u201chonest and open conversation\u201d on the issue.<\/p>\n
The publication of the report comes shortly after Taoiseach and Fianna F\u00e1il lead Miche\u00e1l Martin suggested a body \u2013 the Future Studies Initiative \u2013 should be appointed to oversee research into future scenarios for Irish unification.<\/p>\n
Opposition parties have also piled on pressure for the government to make preparations for a debate on a united Ireland.<\/p>\n
Sinn F\u00e9in leader Mary Lou McDonald welcomed the publication of the blueprint and said its proposals \u201cdeserve serious consideration\u201d.<\/p>\n
She said: \u201cIreland\u2019s future is far too important to be confined by party political differences.<\/p>\n
\u201cI encourage Simon Harris to build on this initiative by engaging with those of us in the opposition, parties in the North, civic society across the island and our global Irish diaspora.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Fine Gael blueprint drew on research from Professor Deirdre Heenan and Professor Stephen Kinsella.\n<\/p>\n
Several scenarios modelled in blueprint document<\/p>\n
Prof Kinsella\u2019s findings are summarised into several scenarios on the potential cost to the Exchequer across 25 years \u2013 stressing there is \u201cno single fixed cost of unity\u201d and that a settlement with the British government is critical in the estimates.<\/p>\n
The analysis sets out four designs for a Unified Island \u2013 \u201cUnitary\u201d, \u201cFederal\u201d, \u201cManaged Integration\u201d and \u201cHigher Cost\u201d \u2013 which use the status quo as a baseline \u2013 and makes projections on assumptions over whether or not the British government keeps accrued pensions and debt interest.<\/p>\n
\u201cFederal\u201d is defined as a unified island keeping a separate Northern Ireland administration that phases pay and welfare to Irish levels over 20 years and spends \u20ac500 million a year on running two systems.<\/p>\n
\u201cHigher Cost\u201d is described as a situation where pay and welfare reach Irish levels on day one with no extra investment, and running two systems costs one billion per year.<\/p>\n
\u201cManaged Integration\u201d is where pay and welfare reach Irish levels over 15 years, with \u20ac1.5 billion per year of extra investment in the first decade and 250 million a year for running two systems.<\/p>\n
The cost to the Exchequer in year one ranges from circa \u20ac3.2 billion to \u20ac25 billion depending on the design and the deal with the British government, according to the report.<\/p>\n
The settlement with the British government on pensions and debt is the largest policy choice in the early years, the report states \u2013 from between four billion euro and \u20ac24.8 billion.<\/p>\n
Over 25 years, the report says the size of the pay and welfare gap \u201cmatters even more\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cBy year 25, managed integration costs \u20ac24.1 billion a year in the highest case and \u20ac\u20ac4.2 billion in the lowest.<\/p>\n
\u201cManaged Integration phases pay and welfare over 15 years with early investment in Northern Ireland and is the design closest to a planned and supported transition.\u201d<\/p>\n
The highest-cost scenario puts a year 25 figure of \u20ac41.2 billion.<\/p>\n
Fine Gael leader and T\u00e1naiste Simon Harris had flagged the \u201cblueprint\u201d earlier in the year.<\/p>\n
Aspiring for a united Ireland<\/p>\n
He said that those who aspire for a united Ireland must \u201cdo more than simply advocate for it\u201d, adding: \u201cWe must be willing to ask the difficult questions, confront the practical challenges and undertake the necessary preparations for the future.<\/p>\n
\u201cRecent political developments and renewed debate about the future of Northern Ireland have brought these questions into sharper focus.<\/p>\n
\u201cEqually, recent tensions have reminded us that peace and reconciliation can never be taken for granted.\u201d<\/p>\n
He added: \u201cFor Fine Gael, Irish unity cannot simply be about changing constitutional arrangements or removing an invisible border.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt must be about bringing people together, building trust and creating a shared future in which every identity, tradition and community is respected.\u201d<\/p>\n
The blueprint sets out several actions that can be taken immediately, preparations the party says should be undertaken as well as matters that need wider agreement.<\/p>\n
It argues for improved all-island cooperation and stronger economic links as well as increased investment in reconciliation.<\/p>\n
Fine Gael says a \u201cStanding Constitutional Forum\u201d should be established to enable discussion ahead of any potential referendum, while work on public services, taxation, pensions, welfare, economic transition, security and future institutional arrangements is also needed.<\/p>\n
It said there should be a Minister of State for North-South relations as part of a Constitutional Planning Unit in the Department of Taoiseach.<\/p>\n
It further says the Irish government should create a new sovereign wealth fund to address the transitional costs attached to the possibility of a Unified Island \u2013 the Future Unified Island Fund (FUIF) and doubling the budget allocation for the Government\u2019s Reconciliation Fund.<\/p>\n
However, it notes that some of its proposals require further discussion alongside requirement for agreement on the extension of voting rights in presidential elections to citizens of Northern Ireland, strengthening NI representation in the Seanad.<\/p>\n
Prof Heenan\u2019s report argues \u2013 drawing on the experience of Brexit \u2013 that planning is not synonymous with support for unity and is instead good governance and risk management.<\/p>\n
It further states there is a willingness on behalf of some unionists to engage in a process provided the outcome is not pre-determined, adding that reconciliation must \u201cremain fundamental to the process but not stall progress\u201d.<\/p>\n
It also finds an \u201calmost unanimous assessment\u201d that current arrangements at Stormont are not working effectively.<\/p>\n
The document was welcomed by SDLP leader Claire Hanna, who said: \u201cThere is now real energy and momentum behind this conversation.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Taoiseach\u2019s recent announcement of a new body to examine constitutional futures, alongside Fine Gael\u2019s Blueprint, demonstrates a welcome shift towards serious preparation.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut unity needs unity. Government parties must now work together on a shared programme of preparation, drawing on the best ideas from across political and civic society.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"THE COST OF a united Ireland could be up to \u20ac25 billion in year one, a report from…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":678379,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3775,285222,61,60,43,123055],"class_list":["post-678378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ireland","tag-fine-gael","tag-fine-gael-ard-fheis","tag-ie","tag-ireland","tag-news","tag-united-ireland"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/678378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=678378"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/678378\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/678379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=678378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=678378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=678378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}