That thumbs down sparked a historic torrent of currency trading. The Bank for International Settlements\u2019 triennial survey of the foreign exchange market just happened to perform its analysis in April, during the wildest part of the storm. Last month, the BIS revealed that an average of nearly $10tn<\/a> changed hands in the currency markets every day over that period \u2014 up by nearly a third compared with the same month three years ago.<\/p>\n That stampede out of the dollar mattered then and it still matters now. It was a warning sign that the currency\u2019s status as a safety valve for the financial system is under pressure and a reflection of an unprecedented urge among stock and bond investors to shield themselves<\/a> from risks in what is supposed to be one of the least risky currencies on earth.<\/p>\n Since late April, however, the dollar has gone the best part of nowhere. If anything, over the past month, it has turned higher. The DXY dollar index, which tracks its value against a basket of other currencies, has gained a modest 3 per cent since early September. Now, analysts and investors are cautiously asking themselves whether the lows are behind us.<\/p>\n Steve Englander, head of currencies research at Standard Chartered, has been making this case in analysis that he says \u201cmakes jaws drop\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe see a path by which dollar exceptionalism can be maintained through rapid productivity and profits growth, and consequent strong capital inflows,\u201d he wrote in a note to clients.<\/p>\n \u201cWe see tantalising, but tentative, evidence that trend productivity growth is rising,\u201d he added. If that holds, it \u201ccould be a precursor to a surprising rebound in the dollar\u201d. If he is right, an awful lot of investors will have a lot of catching up to do.<\/p>\n Deep analysis of productivity growth is one thing, but another underrated factor here is the dirtiest shirt dynamic in currency trading. Sure, the US, and therefore the dollar, has its problems. But other currencies are not exactly a screaming buy at this point, making the buck look like a decent fit.<\/p>\n The Japanese yen has taken a big hit since the selection of a new prime-minister-in-waiting, Sanae Takaichi. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted just around three weeks ago that they were positive on the yen, but in recent days they said they were now getting out. \u201cSanae Takaichi\u2019s surprise victory reintroduces too much uncertainty around Japan\u2019s policy priorities and the timing of the Bank of Japan hiking cycle,\u201d they said.\u00a0<\/p>\n