The conference was all the sweeter for Starmer after a series of very public interventions by Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and a potential rival for the party leadership, backfired in spectacular fashion.<\/p>\n
Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, was also buoyed after a successful party conference, in Manchester. She went into this week fighting for her future and facing the threat of a coup after the Conservative Party\u2019s precipitous fall in the polls. She ended it winning over many of her most ardent critics with a barnstorming conference speech that included a totemic pledge to scrap stamp duty<\/a>.<\/p>\n When Starmer and Badenoch return to Westminster, though, the afterglow of conference season is unlikely to last long.<\/p>\n For the prime minister and Rachel Reeves, his chancellor, the budget will be all-consuming<\/a>. The forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility are in, and government sources say they are as bad as expected. Economists have predicted that Reeves will need to find between \u00a320 billion and \u00a330 billion. All of which points in one direction: tax rises, with a manifesto-busting increase in income tax among the options being considered.<\/p>\n The challenge being wargamed in No 10 and No 11 is, how do you sell an enormous tax rise to alienated voters who already feel they are taxed too much?<\/p>\n Before the last budget, Reeves tried unsuccessfully to blame the economic inheritance left by the Tories for her decision to raise the employer rate of national insurance. It didn\u2019t work, as she and her party plummeted in the polls<\/a>.<\/p>\n Starmer and Rachel Reeves at the conference in Liverpool<\/p>\n JEFF J MITCHELL\/GETTY IMAGES<\/p>\n This time Starmer and Reeves are trying a change of tack, blaming Nigel Farage and Brexit. At the heart of the budget is a big downgrade in productivity by the budget watchdog.<\/p>\n Put simply, the forecaster has concluded that the performance of Britain\u2019s economy over the past decade was even more anaemic than had been thought, leaving Reeves with a bigger black hole in the public finances to fill.<\/p>\n \u2022 David Smith: Don\u2019t shoot the messenger by burying OBR forecasts<\/a><\/p>\n Starmer and Reeves are expected to argue that, if it hadn\u2019t been for Brexit, this type of downgrade would not have been needed, and to cite official figures suggesting that if Britain had not left the European Union the economy would be about \u00a3120 billion bigger by 2035 than current forecasts suggest it will be.<\/p>\n The message is simple: Farage is ultimately to blame as the man who delivered Brexit with \u201ceasy sloganeering\u201d then walked away from the aftermath rather than putting in the hard yards. Or, to put it another way: Farage, not us, is responsible for putting up your taxes.<\/p>\n Nigel Farage<\/p>\n GUY BELL\/ALAMY<\/p>\n The theme will tie to the main thrust of Starmer\u2019s argument at conference, that the Reform leader is selling easy solutions that are ultimately fantasies.<\/p>\n The other approach taken by Starmer and Reeves will be to present Britain as a bastion of political stability.<\/p>\n Reeves will head to the International Monetary Fund in Washington on Wednesday where she is expected to argue that Britain is a sanctuary of economic responsibility in an increasingly unstable world, and very much open to business. She will nod to the political turmoil engulfing France<\/a> as a counterfactual.<\/p>\n Starmer\u2019s allies say that, for all the speculation surrounding his leadership, conference has cemented his position. Burnham took a shot and failed to hit his target<\/a>. The prime minister has a significant majority and is intent on staying the course.<\/p>\n Badenoch believes she emerges from her conference a stronger figure. The blitz of announcements on migration before the conference was intended to squeeze the space between the Tories and Reform as much as possible.<\/p>\n Senior members of the shadow cabinet are privately hoping that Shabana Mahmood, the new home secretary, will succeed in tackling migration so that it becomes less of an issue at the general election. That will then allow the Tories to campaign on the second half of the conference slogan of building a \u201cstronger economy\u201d.<\/p>\n The Tories have identified \u00a347 billion worth of savings<\/a> and pledged to spend half of it on tax cuts, including the surprise \u201crabbit\u201d at the heart of Badenoch\u2019s speech, abolishing stamp duty on primary residences. The Tories intend to use it to create a permanent dividing line with Labour, enabling it to argue at the budget that while Starmer raises taxes Badenoch will cut them.<\/p>\n Kemi Badenoch<\/p>\n TIMES PHOTOGRAPHER JAMES GLOSSOP<\/p>\n The Tory leader will launch a national campaign to scrap stamp duty, touring the country to make her case and capitalise on the announcement. On Monday she will head to Grantham, Margaret Thatcher\u2019s birthplace, to mark what would be her hundredth birthday.<\/p>\n \u2022 AI Iron Lady tells Margaret Thatcher-obsessed party to move on<\/a><\/p>\n The conference speech was enough to stay the hand of her critics in the shadow cabinet, for now at least. However, most acknowledge that after the local elections in May, which are expected to be hugely damaging for the Tories, all bets are off and Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, remains in the wings<\/a>. But for now she has bought herself time.<\/p>\n But while Starmer and Badenoch may feel emboldened, analysis of polling by The Times reveals that the electoral prospects for both Labour and the Tories are bleak.<\/p>\n![\"Prime](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ie\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/\/7cf78a2a-7f3b-43f3-9361-90a9ee7234f2.jpg\")
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