Fundamental
\nOverview<\/p>\n
The USD sold off across the Overall, if one zooms out, In fact, if the rate cuts On the JPY side, we haven\u2019t The yen has been rallying USDJPY USDJPY Daily<\/p>\n On the daily chart, we can USDJPY Technical USDJPY 4 hour<\/p>\n On the 4 hour chart, we can USDJPY Technical USDJPY 1 hour<\/p>\n On the 1 hour chart, we can Upcoming
\nboard on Friday following another soft NFP<\/a> report. The dovish bets on the Fed
\nincreased as a result and the market is now expecting three rate cuts by
\nyear-end (70 bps). Moreover, we have also a 10% probability of a 50 bps cut in
\nSeptember but that will likely happen only if we get a soft CPI report on
\nThursday. In that case, the greenback will likely weaken further into the FOMC
\nmeeting and might finally get us
\nout of the range.<\/p>\n
\nthe US dollar continues to range although the dovish bets on the Fed keep
\nweighing on the currency. Part of that could be the fact that the bearish
\npositioning on the dollar could be overstretched and we might be at the peak of
\nthe dovish pricing. <\/p>\n
\ntrigger stronger economic activity in the next months, the rate cuts in 2026
\ncould be priced out and support the dollar. Nevertheless, the trend is still
\nskewed to the downside, and we might need strong data to reverse it.<\/p>\n
\ngot meaningful changes in the fundamentals. Over the weekend, Japanese
\nPM Ishiba resigned<\/a> and that weighed on the yen with the currency gapping
\nlower on Monday open. But as it generally happens with such political stuff,
\nthe gap was eventually closed and the yen returned trading at pre-Ishiba
\nresignation levels. <\/p>\n
\nmostly on the back of the dovish expectations for the Fed. For more JPY
\nappreciation we will need weak US data to increase the dovish bets on the Fed
\nor a series of higher inflation figures for Japan to price in more rate hikes
\nthan currently expected. <\/p>\n
\nTechnical Analysis \u2013 Daily Timeframe<\/p>\n
\nsee that USDJPY eventually got rejected once again from the major 148.50 resistance<\/a> zone. The sellers will
\ncontinue to target the major trendline<\/a> around the 145.50 level,
\nwhile the buyers will likely step in around the trendline with a defined risk
\nbelow it to position for a rally into the 151.00 handle next. <\/p>\n
\nAnalysis \u2013 4 hour Timeframe<\/p>\n
\nsee that despite all the important events and data releases, we\u2019ve been stuck
\nin a range for over a month. Traders will likely continue to play the range by
\nbuying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either
\nside.<\/p>\n
\nAnalysis \u2013 1 hour Timeframe<\/p>\n
\nsee that we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on
\nthis timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to
\nkeep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to
\nposition for a rally into the 148.50 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n
\nCatalysts<\/p>\n