By Editorial Dept – Nov 14, 2025, 7:00 AM CST
Netanyahu’s position is increasingly precarious. The coalition has thinned to a one-seat margin after United Torah Judaism’s withdrawal over the draft dispute, and the 2026 budget deadline now hangs over him as the next trigger point.
The Supreme Court’s end to Haredi draft exemptions forced the army to begin issuing call-ups this year, igniting mass protests and exposing a structural fault line that no version of the bill can bridge. Any compromise risks splitting either the ultra-Orthodox or nationalist wings. That tension feeds directly into Gaza diplomacy, where far-right ministers are attacking the outlines of Washington’s cease-fire plan, framing any residual Hamas presence as betrayal. Netanyahu signals flexibility to Washington but cannot afford a formal endorsement without fracturing his base.
The domestic optics are worsening. Settler violence in the West Bank has drawn an unusual public rebuke from President Herzog, who condemned attacks on Palestinians and IDF soldiers alike, giving establishment cover to calls for enforcement and leaving Netanyahu squeezed between law-and-order expectations and his coalition’s ideological core. The media fight over the defense minister’s attempt to shutter Army Radio adds friction and reinforces the perception of a government turning inward, focused on control rather than strategy.
Externally, his room for maneuver has narrowed. AIPAC’s once-reliable influence in Washington is showing strain as prominent U.S.…
Netanyahu’s position is increasingly precarious. The coalition has thinned to a one-seat margin after United Torah Judaism’s withdrawal over the draft dispute, and the 2026 budget deadline now hangs over him as the next trigger point.
The Supreme Court’s end to Haredi draft exemptions forced the army to begin issuing call-ups this year, igniting mass protests and exposing a structural fault line that no version of the bill can bridge. Any compromise risks splitting either the ultra-Orthodox or nationalist wings. That tension feeds directly into Gaza diplomacy, where far-right ministers are attacking the outlines of Washington’s cease-fire plan, framing any residual Hamas presence as betrayal. Netanyahu signals flexibility to Washington but cannot afford a formal endorsement without fracturing his base.
The domestic optics are worsening. Settler violence in the West Bank has drawn an unusual public rebuke from President Herzog, who condemned attacks on Palestinians and IDF soldiers alike, giving establishment cover to calls for enforcement and leaving Netanyahu squeezed between law-and-order expectations and his coalition’s ideological core. The media fight over the defense minister’s attempt to shutter Army Radio adds friction and reinforces the perception of a government turning inward, focused on control rather than strategy.
Externally, his room for maneuver has narrowed. AIPAC’s once-reliable influence in Washington is showing strain as prominent U.S. candidates distance themselves from the lobby, signaling a subtle erosion of bipartisan insulation for Netanyahu’s approach. Yet his survival instincts remain intact. He continues to trade time and partners, leveraging factional rivalries to avoid a definitive test at the polls. The balancing act still holds, but it is fragile. The combination of a budget deadline, the draft dispute, Gaza negotiations, and rising settler violence leaves little margin. If even two of these crises peak together, the coalition could unravel and push Israel toward elections that Netanyahu may not be able to stop.