Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Leonardo DiCaprio, director Paul Thomas Anderson in “One Battle After Another”
©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C
Critics Choice Awards Commentary (Updated: Dec. 4, 2025): As awards season shifts into high gear, all eyes turn to the Critics Choice — one of the most reliable predictors of Oscar success.
Selected by roughly 575 voting members, the Critics Choice Awards tend to reflect broader industry consensus, offering a temperature check on which films have captured critical hearts and minds.
Last season proved the organization’s predictive power. “Anora” used a Critics Choice best picture win to reassert itself after being shut out at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards — momentum it carried all the way to the Academy Awards. Three acting winners — Adrien Brody, Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña — also repeated at the Oscars.
This year, the CCA race appears to be taking shape around two clear frontrunners. Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” are expected to lead the tally, followed closely by “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Wicked: For Good” and “Marty Supreme.” The diversity of this top tier — spanning prestige drama, genre filmmaking, literary adaptation and musical spectacle — shows a year without a single dominant narrative.
For the first time in its history, the CCA released an official shortlist across 11 artisan categories, spotlighting the behind-the-scenes craftspeople who created some of the year’s most acclaimed films. There is still an opportunity for “Avatar: Fire and Ash” from James Cameron to pop up in a few artisan races, and perhaps even best picture, especially coming after AFI and NBR top 10 mentions.
The group doesn’t always embrace non-English language films early in the race, as evidenced by “Anatomy of a Fall” nabbing a single nomination for international feature at the 2023 ceremony before later garnering multiple Oscar mentions including best picture and winning original screenplay. Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama “Sentimental Value” should perform solidly enough to secure several nominations, but Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident” may struggle to replicate its recent critical success with the organization.
The CCA film nominations will be announced Friday, Dec. 5.
Read the final nomination predictions below.
Best Picture
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Alternates: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios); “Bugonia” (Focus Features); “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Director
Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Alternates: Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon); Jon M. Chu, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures); Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Alternates: George Clooney, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix); Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams” (Netflix); Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Alternates: Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures); Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features); Jennifer Lawrence, “Die My Love” (Mubi)
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Alternates: Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.); Mark Hamill, “The Life of Chuck” (Neon); Jeremy Strong, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Warner Bros.
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon); Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24); Hailee Steinfeld, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.) — Zach Cregger
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper
Alternates: “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix); “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon); “Sorry, Baby” (A24)
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Guillermo Del Toro
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix) — Rian Johnson
Alternates: “No Other Choice” (Neon); “The Life of Chuck” (Neon); “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Animated Film
Image Credit: Disney
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
Alternates: “Scarlet” (Crunchyroll); “A Magnificent Life” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
Production Design
Image Credit: Disney
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Bleachler and Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios) — Kasra Farahani and Jille Azis
Alternates: “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Ben Munro, Mark Tildesley, Reynan Castro Del Rosario, Andrew McCarthy and Véronique Melery; “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Cara Brower and Stella Fox; “Roofman” (Paramount Pictures) — Inbal Weinberg and Kendall Anderson
Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Dan Laustsen
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Łukasz Żal
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso
“No Other Choice” (Neon) — Kim Woo-hyung
Alternates: “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Claudio Miranda; “Marty Supreme” (A24) — Darius Khondji; “28 Years Later” (Sony Pictures) — Anthony Dod Mantle;
Costume Design
Image Credit: ©Lions Gate/Courtesy Everett Co
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Paul Tazewell
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Malgosia Turzanska
“Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions) — Colleen Atwood and Christine L. Cantella
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood
Alternates: “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Lindsay Pugh; “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures) — Malgorzata Karpiuk; “The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Rita Azevedo
Editing
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Michael P. Shawver
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao and Affonso Gonçalves
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.) — Joe Murphy
Alternates: “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Kirk Baxter; “Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Evan Schiff; “The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) — Viridiana Lieberman
Hair and Makeup
Image Credit: Eric Zachanowich
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“28 Years Later” (Sony Pictures)
Alternates: “Bugonia” (Focus Features); “Superman” (Warner Bros.); “The Ugly Stepsister” (IFC)
Sound
Image Credit: Eros Hoagland/Netflix
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
Alternates: “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24); “Sirāt” (Neon); “Warfare” (A24)
Visual Effects
Image Credit: 20TH CENTURY STUDIOS
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Predator: Badlands” (20th Century Studios)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures); “Tron: Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures); “How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures)
Score
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima/Focus Features
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Daniel Lopatin
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jerskin Fendrix
Alternates: “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertlemann; “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer; “The Plague” (IFC) — Johan Lenox
Song
Image Credit: NETFLIX
“Golden” — “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“I Lied to You” — “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” — “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Girl in the Bubble” — “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“Drive” — “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Highest 2 Lowest” — “Highest 2 Lowest” (A24/Apple Original Films)
Alternates: “Dear Me” — “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment); “No Place Like Home” — “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures); “Train Dreams” — “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Foreign Language
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“No Other Choice” (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sirāt” (Neon)
“Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
Alternates: “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa); “Left-Handed Girl” (Netflix); “Belén” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Casting and Ensemble
Image Credit: Peter Mountain/Netflix
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Douglas Aibel and Nina Gold
Alternates: “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Susanne Scheel; “The Plague” (IFC) — Rebecca Dealy; “The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues
Stunt Design
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Predator: Badlands” (20th Century Studios)
Alternates: “The Smashing Machine” (A24); “Ballerina” (Lionsgate); “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Comedy
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“The Naked Gun” (Paramount Pictures)
“Roofman” (Paramount Pictures)
Alternates: “Jay Kelly” (Netflix); “Friendship” (A24); “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)