While 2025 wasn’t the box office savior that many had hoped, there’s reason to be more optimistic about 2026. Next year’s calendar is a fearsome collection of potential blockbusters, many of them packed into a truly crowded summer season. Major franchises like Star Wars, Toy Story, and Spider-Man are back in theaters. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Steven Spielberg’s return to big-budget sci-fi are already building hype. Greta Gerwig’s Narnia will play in IMAX screens over Thanksgiving, and Dune: Part 3 and Avengers: Doomsday will release on the same day in December.
But how big can a post-COVID year really be? We’re a couple of weeks from the end of 2025 and Zootopia 2 is only now about to give Hollywood its second $1 billion grosser, with Avatar: Fire & Ash virtually certain to follow. There are several movies next year that would’ve been expected to cross that milestone pre-pandemic, but it’s unclear whether there’s room for all of them to succeed on that scale. Picking which of them will end up the highest-grossing film feels almost impossible.
Except, some early tracking data may have spoiled the answer.
Toy Story 5 Is Looking Like 2026’s Biggest Movie
Buzz Lightyear flying in Toy Story 4
Greenlight Analytics‘ TheQuorum engages in pre-release tracking by regularly surveying 2000 people on their awareness of and interest in upcoming releases. Those scores fluctuate as a film’s release date approaches, and as its marketing campaign unfolds. Of the 72 movies that were part of the latest batch of results, for example, Avatar: Fire & Ash has the highest awareness score at 73%. In July, just before its trailer dropped, it was at 47%. Avatar’s current interest score is 54% – good for second-best.
Toy Story 5 is in first with 59%. The average for an animation/family film at this six-month distance from its release date is 40%. Its 56% awareness score, more than double average, puts it #5 overall and just above Anaconda, which releases in just two weeks. Disney has barely started its promo for it, and already it’s tracking above The Mandalorian & Grogu (30%), The Odyssey (33%), The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping (43%), and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (45%) in this category.
But most telling is that its theater score, which indicates the percentage of respondents who would prefer to see a given movie in theaters instead of at home, is 51%. It’s the highest of all 72 movies; Avatar: Fire & Ash, which is very likely going to earn $2 billion worldwide and offers a special 3D experience that can’t be replicated on one’s couch, is at 49%.
That doesn’t guarantee Toy Story 5 will gross over $2 billion, but it does mean Pixar’s upcoming sequel is an absolute juggernaut. Spielberg’s new sci-fi film releases the week before it, Supergirl the week after, and Minions 3 a week after that. That’s some pretty serious competition. But this tracking data suggests Toy Story is the one to be afraid of.
Toy Story 3 and 4 both just cracked $1 billion, and the expectation will be that this one does, too. But what if Inside Out 2’s $1.6 billion is the better comp? We could be looking at the new all-time record holder for an American animated film, and if that happens, it’s very possible Woody and Buzz end up holding down the top spot for this impressive year.
Release Date
June 19, 2026
Director
Andrew Stanton
Writers
Andrew Stanton
Tim Allen
Buzz Lightyear (voice)
Joan Cusack
Jessie (voice)
