Strategy (MSTR) has had a rough stretch, with the stock down around 21% over the past month and nearly 47% in the past 3 months, prompting fresh questions about valuation and Bitcoin exposure.
See our latest analysis for Strategy.
The latest slide, including a 1 day share price return of minus 3.7 percent and a year to date share price return of roughly minus 41 percent, suggests momentum is clearly fading even after an exceptional 3 year total shareholder return above 900 percent.
If Bitcoin volatility and Strategy’s sharp moves have you rethinking concentration risk, it could be worth scanning fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for other high conviction ideas with strong insider alignment.
With Strategy trading more than 40 percent below its year-to-date level, yet still closely linked to Bitcoin sentiment, the key question now is whether investors are looking at a rare mispricing or a market that is already discounting future upside.
At a last close of $176.45 versus a narrative fair value of $663, the gap is striking and hinges on Strategy’s extreme Bitcoin leverage and capital plans.
Assuming Bitcoin appreciates to $300,000 within the next few years, and MSTR partially executes the 21/21 plan, MicroStrategy’s fair value could reach $663 per share, with the potential for higher prices during speculative peaks.
According to BlackGoat, this valuation leans on aggressive earnings expansion powered by explosive Bitcoin price assumptions, growing treasury holdings, and rich profit margins that reshape Strategy’s long term earnings base.
Want to see what happens when rapid earnings growth, expanding Bitcoin reserves, and a premium profit multiple all collide in one model? The full narrative unpacks the bold assumptions step by step and shows how they build to that eye catching fair value.
Result: Fair Value of $663 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this upside case still hinges on fraught assumptions, with Bitcoin volatility and potential NAV premium compression both capable of rapidly unwinding that seemingly large discount.
Find out about the key risks to this Strategy narrative.
If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a fresh narrative in just minutes: Do it your way
A great starting point for your Strategy research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Before you move on, give yourself the edge by scanning fresh stock ideas with strong fundamentals, growth potential, and themes that could reshape your portfolio.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MSTR.
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