If you are wondering whether Baloise Holding at around CHF198 is still a smart buy or if most of the upside is already priced in, you are in the right place.
Despite a choppy recent spell, with the share price down 5.8% over the last week and 1.9% over the last month, the stock is still sitting on strong gains of 18.4% year to date and 25.5% over the last year, and an impressive 60.4% over three years.
These moves have come as investors digest a mix of strategic updates, ongoing capital return commitments and sector wide shifts in how traditional insurers are navigating higher interest rates and regulatory change. At the same time, the broader European insurance space has been repriced as markets reassess where reliable, dividend backed growth can still be found.
Interestingly, Baloise currently scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. This suggests that by our standard metrics it does not screen as obviously undervalued. In the sections that follow we will unpack what that means under different valuation approaches, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about the companys true worth.
Baloise Holding scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
The Excess Returns model asks whether Baloise is generating returns on its equity that are comfortably above the return investors require. It looks at how much value the company can create over and above its cost of equity, then capitalizes those surplus profits into an intrinsic value per share.
For Baloise, the starting point is a Book Value of CHF76.79 per share, which is expected to grow to a Stable Book Value of CHF85.14 per share based on estimates from three analysts. Using the companys Median Return on Equity from the past five years, Simply Wall St derives a Stable EPS of CHF6.16 per share. Against a Cost of Equity of CHF3.28 per share, this implies an Excess Return of CHF2.87 per share, supported by an Average Return on Equity of 7.23%.
On this basis, the Excess Returns valuation suggests an intrinsic value of about CHF170.44 per share. With the stock trading around CHF198, Baloise appears roughly 16.2% overvalued under this framework.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Baloise Holding may be overvalued by 16.2%. Discover 908 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
BALN Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
Story Continues
For consistently profitable companies like Baloise, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay for each unit of current earnings. In broad terms, faster growth and lower perceived risk usually justify a higher PE, while slower growth or higher uncertainty call for a lower, more conservative multiple.
Right now, Baloise trades on a PE of about 20.37x. That is a clear premium to the wider Insurance industry average of roughly 11.78x, and it also sits above the peer group average of around 17.68x, suggesting the market already factors in stronger prospects or a higher quality profile than many of its rivals.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further than these simple comparisons. It estimates what a reasonable PE should be, given Baloise’s specific mix of earnings growth, margins, risk profile, market cap and industry positioning. For Baloise, this Fair Ratio is 16.06x, which is materially below the current 20.37x. On this basis, the stock appears to be trading ahead of the level its fundamentals would typically justify.
Result: OVERVALUED
SWX:BALN PE Ratio as at Dec 2025
PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simple, investor friendly stories that connect your view of a company with a concrete financial forecast and a Fair Value you can compare to today’s share price. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors, a Narrative lets you set assumptions for Baloise’s future revenues, margins and earnings, turn those into an explicit valuation, and then see at a glance whether your Fair Value suggests it is a buy or a sell at the current market price. Because Narratives update dynamically as new information, like merger news or earnings releases, comes in, they remain a living reflection of how your thesis is evolving rather than a one off calculation. For example, one Baloise investor might build a more cautious Narrative close to the CHF150 bearish target, while another could lean into the CHF190 bullish view or even towards the CHF229.20 consensus fair value, and each can immediately see whether their story still stacks up against the latest price.
Do you think there’s more to the story for Baloise Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
SWX:BALN 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include BALN.SW.
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