The winter box office is about to get a lot hotter as James Cameron prepares to set the charts ablaze.
Avatar: Fire and Ash will easily come out on top over the Dec. 19-21 weekend, even if its opening numbers appear softer than its predecessors. Domestic presales are pacing about 30 percent behind The Way of Water, but that could reflect a crowded December calendar and shifting consumer habits more than waning enthusiasm for Pandora. With an aggressive global rollout already eyeing a $350 million worldwide launch, Cameron remains the safest bet in Hollywood.
The real drama this weekend lies in the battle for second place, driven by Sydney Sweeney’s effort to rebound after Christy’s highly publicized stumble earlier this fall. She’s paired with Amanda Seyfried, currently ranked sixth in Gold Derby’s Best Actress odds for The Testament of Ann Lee, giving The Housemaid a stronger awards-adjacent profile than expected. The film is overindexing with the same female demographic that helped turn Anyone But You into a sleeper hit, and the combination of Sweeney’s massive online following and Seyfried’s long-standing credibility could lift this pulpy bestseller adaptation toward the $22 million range.
But The Housemaid faces real pressure from Angel Studios’ David, a faith-based animated epic that has already pulled in an impressive $14 million in presales. With a mobilized core audience and a values-driven narrative, David is a lock for at least $20 million — yet another signal that the Angel Guild has become a true force during the holiday corridor.
Bikini Bottom, meanwhile, is getting squeezed in a very crowded animation market. Paramount’s The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants is tracking for a respectable but somewhat muted $17 million debut. The brand remains iconic, but for now it’s fighting for air between David and the ongoing juggernaut of Zootopia 2. Disney’s sequel is continuing its historic run, recently crossing the $1.1 billion mark in record time, and should hold with another $15 million as families prepare for the Christmas-to-New-Year surge. Even in a weekend dominated by blue aliens and biblical kings, the enduring legs of Judy Hopps and Nick Wilde remain one of the year’s most impressive box office stories.
New releases
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Distributor: 20th Century Studios
Jake and Neytiri’s family grapples with grief after Neteyam’s death, encountering a new, aggressive Na’vi tribe, the Ash People, who are led by the fiery Varang, as the conflict on Pandora escalates and a new moral focus emerges. The epic sci-fi adventure has a running time of three hours, 17 minutes, and is rated PG-13. Avatar: Fire and Ash is certified “fresh” with a 69 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 62 percent.
The Housemaid
Director: Paul Feig
Distributor: Lionsgate
A struggling woman is happy to start over as a housemaid for an affluent, elite couple. The dramatic thriller has a running time of two hours, 11 minutes, and is rated R. The Housemaid is certified “fresh” with a 80 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 67 percent.
David
Director: Phil Cunningham and Brent Dawes
Distributor: Angel Studios
From his mother’s songs to his clash with Goliath, David’s journey from humble shepherd to anointed king tests the limits of faith, courage, and love-culminating in a battle for the soul of a kingdom. The animated musical has a running time of one hour, 55 minutes, and is rated PG. David is certified “fresh” with a 67 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes.
SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Director: Derek Drymon
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
SpongeBob journeys to the ocean’s depths to face the Flying Dutchman’s ghost, encountering challenges and uncovering marine mysteries. The animated comedy has a running time of one hour, 36 minutes, and is rated PG. Search for SquarePants is certified “fresh” with a 85 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally favorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 68 percent.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the Dec. 19-21 weekend:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. The Housemaid
3. David
4. SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
5. Zootopia 2
Do you agree or disagree with those rankings? Make your predictions right now — it’s fun and easy!