In December 2025, Rocket Lab announced its largest-ever contract, an US$816 million award to design, build, and operate 18 advanced missile-tracking satellites for the U.S. Space Force’s Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture, alongside expected revenue from supplying additional components and proprietary StarLite protection sensors through 2029.
This landmark defense win underscores Rocket Lab’s evolution from a small-launch provider into an integrated space and defense supplier with deeper exposure to long-term government programs.
We’ll now explore how this landmark US$816 million Space Force contract could reshape Rocket Lab’s investment narrative and future risk-reward profile.
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To own Rocket Lab today, you need to believe it can turn its expanding launch and space systems platform into a durable, profitable business while managing heavy Neutron spending and contract lumpiness. The US$816 million Space Force deal strengthens visibility on defense revenue and reduces near term dependence on new contract wins, but the biggest risk remains ongoing cash burn and potential dilution if capital needs rise faster than cash generation.
Among recent developments, completion of qualification testing for Neutron’s reusable “Hungry Hippo” fairing is especially relevant, because it ties the company’s largest future catalyst to its largest risk: getting Neutron flying at scale without blowing out costs or timelines. How Rocket Lab executes on both Neutron and this new Space Force constellation contract will likely shape how investors weigh its rich valuation against its growing backlog and government relationships.
But behind the contract headlines, investors should also be aware of…
Read the full narrative on Rocket Lab (it’s free!)
Rocket Lab’s narrative projects $1.3 billion revenue and $113.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 37.5% yearly revenue growth and a $344.7 million earnings increase from -$231.3 million today.
Uncover how Rocket Lab’s forecasts yield a $68.75 fair value, a 20% downside to its current price.
RKLB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
Seventy five Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Rocket Lab range widely, from US$10.61 to US$97.83. Against that spread, the concentration risk around Neutron’s cost, timing, and customer uptake gives you strong reasons to compare several of these viewpoints before forming your own expectations.
Explore 75 other fair value estimates on Rocket Lab – why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include RKLB.
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