Wall Street Connects Bitcoin's Rally To Falling Oil Prices—That's Wrong, Bitwise Says

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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) surged more than 5% over the weekend to reclaim the $93,000 level, but analysts say the move is being misattributed to recent political developments involving Venezuela.

What Happened: Bitwise Invest’s Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen said Bitcoin’s rally is being wrongly framed as a Venezuela-driven macro trade—one that assumes higher oil supply would push inflation lower and accelerate interest-rate cuts. In reality, rate expectations have barely moved.

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Market-implied probabilities for 25-basis-point rate cuts in January and December 2026 were essentially unchanged before and after Nicolás Maduro‘s capture, while short-term cut odds actually slipped.

“Bitcoin is moving on structural forces, not headlines,” Rasmussen said.

Why It Matters: Rasmussen said the rally reflects tailwinds that were already in motion:

Accelerating institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs, with major firms like Morgan Stanley (NASDAQ:MS), Wells Fargo (NASDAQ:WFC), and Merrill Lynch allocating fresh capital

Post-2024 pro-crypto regulatory pivot drawing in long-term allocators

Renewed AI-driven risk-on sentiment across markets

Expectations for meaningful monetary easing in 2026 that were priced in well before the Venezuela developments

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In mid-December 2025, Rasmussen predicted Bitcoin would break the traditional four-year cycle and push to new all-time highs, positioning 2026 as a “pullback year.”

He also expects ETFs to absorb more than 100% of the new supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) as institutional demand continues to accelerate.

Wall Street Connects Bitcoin’s Rally To Falling Oil Prices—That’s Wrong, Bitwise Says

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