Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland are still expected to be in the Premier League relegation picture, but other candidates have emerged.

Market NameOddsBurnley-275Wolves-138Sunderland+110Leeds+162West Ham+200Brentford+250

All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.

Burnley

Despite some of the issues at more established top-flight clubs, it’s Burnley who are still viewed as the team most likely to finish bottom. There’s an implied probability of 38.2% for them to finish 20th, while the Clarets are given a 75.2% chance of being relegated.

They are yet to pick up points against sides that were in last season’s Premier League. However, if not for 97th- and 95th-minute penalties against Manchester United and Liverpool, they’d be reflecting on a fantastic start.

The underlying data paint a slightly different picture for Scott Parker’s side, however. Their xG total of 3.05 is the second-lowest in the division. Those struggles were to be expected, given they didn’t score that freely even at Championship level.

What’s even more concerning is that Burnley’s record-breaking defence, which only conceded 16 league goals last term, has been much less convincing. They’ve allowed an average of 19.5 shots per 90 minutes so far in the Premier League, 5.5 more than any other team.

With problems at both ends of the pitch, it’s hard to see how the Lancashire side are going to be better than three other teams.

Sunderland

While they only came up via the play-offs, Sunderland have been the most impressive of the promoted clubs so far. They were very active in the transfer market, spending more than £160m on new players. Experienced additions such as Granit Xhaka have helped them settle quickly.

They have benefited from the most favourable schedule of the promoted trio, which partly explains their seven-point return. Home fixtures against West Ham and Brentford offered a soft landing at this level.

The Mackems will also fancy their chances when goalless Aston Villa visit the Stadium of Light this weekend. A win could push their implied survival probability above 50%.

A lack of firepower is one potential weakness. However, Regis Le Bris appears to have already installed the kind of defensive foundations that suggest they’re worth backing to stay up.

Sunderland currently boast the fourth-best defensive record, while they’ve only allowed 4.5 xG, the seventh-best figure in the league. They also seem to have recruited a confident goalkeeper in Robin Roefs, who shone at Crystal Palace last time out.

Leeds

In the pre-season Premier League relegation odds, Leeds were the promoted club given the best chance of surviving. That’s still the case, although the gap has narrowed as a result of Sunderland’s bright start.

Following their late 1-0 defeat at Fulham on Saturday, Leeds now carry an implied relegation probability of 38.2%. Daniel Farke’s side competed well in that match, and only had to face five shots, but a bizarre own goal from Gabriel Gudmundsson proved their undoing.

Leeds have been strong without the ball, with their pressing game working well, and they’ve registered 8.8 interceptions per 90 minutes on average. They’ve also faced just 9.5 shots per 90 minutes, which is fewer than the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham.

Their main weakness, however, lies in attack. An xG total of 4.09 is not great, but would be manageable if they were finishing their chances. That’s not the case, with the Whites yet to score from open play.

Much will depend on whether one of their strikers can step up and deliver. Joel Piroe is yet to prove himself at this level, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s fitness issues have always made him a risky addition.

Those are serious worries for Leeds, and there may be value in backing them to go down at their current odds. Those prices are likely to shorten significantly if they lose a crucial game against Wolves on Matchday 5.