WILL TRUMP USE MILITARY FORCE IN IRAN?

Both Dr Dorsey and Dr Samaan acknowledged the possibility of US military intervention in Iran following its recent strike in Venezuela, which may have emboldened Trump.

“He clearly feels that the United States has the military power, the military ability and the power to impose its will on other countries,” Dr Dorsey said. 

“Military intervention, whether a one-time operation or a series of sustained operations, is designed to embolden the protesters, to give them a sense that the world’s most powerful man has their back, and that by doing so, he increases the chances of a regime change,” he added.

Still, Dr Dorsey pointed out that any intervention in Iran would not be as “simple” as the US operation in Venezuela.

“Iran has battle-hardened military forces. It is also a much bigger country than Venezuela and it’s got a very cohesive regime,” he told CNA, noting that the US also does not have an aircraft carrier group in the region at this point.

“Obviously, he has significant forces, including military aircraft bases throughout the Gulf. However, the Gulf States probably don’t want to see the United States attacking Iran from their own territory,” Dr Dorsey said.

Dr Samaan said any use of force in Iran would likely be a limited option that involves airstrikes targeting the regime’s civilian and military infrastructure, adding that it could look like the US involvement in the Israel-Iran war last year. 

“I doubt the White House seriously considers a larger commitment, such as a ground operation,” he said.

With the US mid-term elections this year, the Trump administration will also be reluctant to get stuck in a regional war before then, he added.

Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, also noted that with protests across 130 to 150 Iranian cities, an attempt by the US to hit security forces in all the cities would take more than just a few airstrikes. 

As Trump likely “doesn’t want to get his hands dirty, a performative strike may be more where he wants to go”, he added.