HSBC and ING expect Greece’s strong growth to continue this year, with rates that will exceed 2%, although they do not rule out even higher performance if the government steps up implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Fund projects.
ING predicts that Greece will again be the “star” performer in the eurozone this year, while HSBC emphasizes that convergence with pre-crisis GDP levels will accelerate.
HSBC estimates that growth in Greece will reach 2% in 2025, from 2.2% it previously forecast, while in 2026 it will move to 2.1% and in 2027 to 2%. “Greece will therefore continue the long process of closing the gap that began in 2018, with real GDP expected to return to close to 2010 levels in 2027,” it notes. If the implementation of the Recovery Fund is faster, then positive surprises in GDP are very likely. However, the British bank says the current account deficit has widened in recent years, although the financing side is improving with more stable inflows of foreign direct investment.
ING, for its part, notes that the boost from domestic demand, fueled by the strong labor market, the Recovery Fund and the fiscal stance, will confirm Greece as the country with the highest growth performance for another year in 2026.