After more than two years of widespread diversions, global container shipping is beginning a tentative return to the Red Sea, marking a potential turning point for one of the world’s most critical east–west trade corridors.

Read also: Maersk Completes First Red Sea Transit in Nearly Two Years, Considers Gradual Suez Canal Return

A.P. Moller-Maersk this week confirmed it is rerouting a regular service through the Suez Canal, signaling growing confidence that security risks tied to regional conflict have eased. The Danish carrier had previously diverted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope after attacks by Yemen-based Houthi forces disrupted Red Sea traffic in late 2023.

Maersk’s move is being closely watched across the industry. “This suggests we may start to see broader normalization after Chinese New Year,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, noting that other carriers are likely to begin planning similar returns.

Capacity Implications Loom

A full-scale return to the Red Sea would shorten voyage times and effectively inject additional capacity into the global container fleet—an outcome that could pressure spot freight rates and carrier earnings. In 2023 alone, more than $2 trillion in trade transited the region, according to Clarksons Research.

Maersk said one of its services linking India and the UAE with the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts is undergoing a “structural change.” The first westbound vessel under the revised routing departed Dubai’s Jebel Ali port this week, while the eastbound leg via Suez sailed earlier from Savannah, Georgia.

The carrier described the shift as a “significant milestone,” while emphasizing that contingency plans remain in place should security conditions deteriorate and Cape diversions become necessary again.

A Notable Signal to the Market

Maersk’s decision follows limited Red Sea transits by competitors, including several vessels operated by MSC and CMA CGM. Together, the world’s three largest container carriers account for nearly half of global capacity, making their routing decisions highly influential.

“Maersk has historically been the most risk-averse among the major carriers when it comes to returning to the Red Sea, so this is a meaningful signal,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta. While the services involved currently use smaller vessels outside major alliances, Sand said the move itself represents a clear inflection point.

Traffic through the Suez Canal is rising but remains far from normal. Drewry data show 26 container ships transited the canal in the week ending Sunday, up from 10 the previous week, but still well below the pre-crisis average of around 80 per week.

Gradual Transition Ahead

Analysts caution that a full restoration of Red Sea routings will take time. Reworking global schedules could take several months and will depend heavily on continued regional stability.

“This is a step in the right direction, but a complete return is not imminent,” said DNB Carnegie analyst Jørgen Lian. “Everything hinges on whether security conditions hold.”

Xeneta estimates it could take three to five months for Suez routings to be broadly reinstated. Carriers are expected to move gradually to avoid port congestion and prevent a sudden surge in capacity from pushing rates to unsustainable levels.

Rates Under Pressure as Demand Softens

The timing is sensitive. Global goods trade growth is expected to slow sharply in 2026 following a strong 2025. Oxford Economics forecasts global trade growth of 1.7% this year, down from 4.9% last year.

With demand easing and capacity poised to rise, freight rates are already under pressure. Analysts note that Red Sea diversions have absorbed roughly 7% of global container capacity over the past two years, helping support rates and carrier profitability.

Equity markets reacted swiftly to Maersk’s announcement. Shares in Maersk fell more than 5%, while alliance partner Hapag-Lloyd also posted sharp declines.

“The immediate capacity impact is limited, but the signal to the market is significant,” analysts at Clarksons Securities wrote, adding that geopolitical risks—particularly around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz—remain an ongoing concern.