Briefly in my Picks n’ Mixes of the top news, scoops and deep-dives in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate for Friday, September 19:
A new Talbot Mills poll leaked this morning to Henry Cooke at The Post-$ has found Labour’s lead over National has widened to four percentage points. Labour’s support rose one percentage point to 35%. National fell one point to 31%.
The poll taken this month also found 55% of voters thought the country was on the ‘wrong track,’ which was the worst result for the Government since the 2023 election. The ‘wrong track’ measure was 59% just before Labour lost power.
The poll comes as newspapers led with criticism of the Government’s performance on the economy after GDP fell by 0.9% in the June quarter. That was more than twice as bad as the economists’ consensus forecast.
Westpac, Kiwibank and ASB called on the Reserve Bank to deliver a ‘bazooka’-sized 50 basis point cut in the Official Cash Rate in three weeks time, Interest reported last night.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis blamed Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff shock in April, but the chart below shows New Zealand is the exception, with other peer economies growing solidly despite the same news.
New Zealand’s export sector is doing well. The manufacturing and construction sectors here fell sharply in the quarter, thanks to both the Reserve Bank and the Government running tight policy over the last two years. This is a self-inflicted double-dip recession, in my view.
The de-industrialisation of the regions continued apace last night with Griffin’s announcing it was closing its Proper Crisps factory in Nelson and consolidating to its larger plant at Wiri in South Auckland. It said 85 roles would be affected in Nelson and Wellington. RNZ
Paying subscribers can get more detail, analysis and all my Picks n’ Mixes below the paywall fold. They can also comment and join our chat section.
