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If you are wondering whether NextDecade’s current share price reflects its true worth, this article walks through the numbers so you can judge the value story for yourself.
The stock recently closed at US$4.86, after a 7.4% decline over the last 7 days and a 46.3% decline over the last year, which may change how investors view both its risk and potential upside.
Recent coverage around NextDecade has focused on its role in the US energy sector and ongoing development of its liquefied natural gas projects, which frame how investors think about the business. These themes provide useful context when you are weighing the recent 11.3% 30 day return decline and the 9.7% year to date pullback.
NextDecade currently has a valuation score of 2 out of 6, indicating it screens as undervalued on 2 of 6 checks. Next we will look at what different valuation methods say about that price tag before finishing with a more complete way to think about what the stock might be worth.
NextDecade scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today’s dollars to arrive at an estimate of what the business could be worth now.
For NextDecade, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in $. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $3,711.59 million. Analyst inputs and extrapolated estimates point to free cash flow moving to $1,853 million by 2030, with additional projections running through 2035. Simply Wall St uses analyst forecasts where available, then extends the series to build a ten year outlook.
After discounting these projected cash flows back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$121.09 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$4.86, this output suggests the stock screens as heavily undervalued based on this cash flow scenario.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests NextDecade is undervalued by 96.0%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 872 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.
NEXT Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026
For companies where earnings are not the main anchor yet, price to book, or P/B, is a useful way to think about valuation because it compares what you pay in the market with the accounting value of the assets behind each share.
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In general, the P/B investors are comfortable paying tends to be higher when they expect stronger growth and view the business as less risky, and lower when growth is uncertain or risks feel higher. That context matters when you look at benchmarks such as sector or peer averages.
NextDecade currently trades on a P/B of 8.33x. This sits well above the Oil and Gas industry average P/B of 1.35x and also above the peer average of 1.63x. Simply Wall St also uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio” for P/B, which is the multiple it would expect for the company once it factors in earnings growth, profit margins, size, industry and company specific risks.
That Fair Ratio can often give you a more tailored yardstick than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for differences in growth, risk profile, profitability and market cap rather than treating all companies as if they are similar.
Result: OVERVALUED
NasdaqCM:NEXT P/B Ratio as at Jan 2026
P/B ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1446 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simple stories you create about a company that sit behind your numbers like fair value, and your estimates for future revenue, earnings and margins.
A Narrative connects three pieces: what you think is happening with the business, what that means for its future financials, and what you believe is a fair value for the shares.
On Simply Wall St, within the Community page used by millions of investors, Narratives are an easy tool you can use to set your own assumptions, see the forecast that flows from them, and line that up against today’s share price.
This makes it easier to decide whether you are comfortable buying, holding or selling by comparing your Fair Value to the current Price instead of relying only on headline ratios.
Narratives also update automatically when new information such as company news or earnings is added to the platform, so your story and fair value stay in sync with the latest data.
For example, some investors might build a very optimistic Narrative for NextDecade while others might set far more cautious assumptions and arrive at a much lower fair value, even though they are all looking at the same company.
Do you think there’s more to the story for NextDecade? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
NasdaqCM:NEXT 1-Year Stock Price Chart
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include NEXT.
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